Jay Greeson: 5-at-10: Braves final push, college QB1 betting odds, NFL takes its shot to encourage shots

Aug. 5—Braves' final push

OK, at 54-54 the Braves are at the all-so-elusive stepping stone to a winning record. Something that they a) have not attained this year, which is shocking and b) something that is doable tonight vs. St. Louis in the first game of the final third of the season, which is way later than any of us would have guessed.

But here we are and, while we're still a few weeks from the "er" months when baseball talk truly matters, we are a week away from school starting and again, we are 2/3s through this season.

Here are some big-picture thoughts:

> The acquired players made some noise last night as Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall homered and Richard Rodriguez needed nine pitches to pitch a perfect fifth in relief of Drew Smyly;

> Speaking of the bullpen, Rodriguez has three scoreless outings since coming over from Pittsburgh, and while I believe he has better back-end-of-the-bullpen stuff than a lot of the Braves relievers, I was fine with handing him the ball in the fifth. Not all save (or game-decisive) situations are in the ninth inning, and Rodriguez entered the game with the Braves down 3-2 and went through the 2-3-4 spots in order to keep it a one-run game. Duvall's two-run homer in the following inning gave the Braves the lead;

> With a 4-for-4 night, Dansby Swanson is at .254, which is almost as big a jump as Freddie Freeman has made over the last month or so. Swanson has more riding on the final third of this season than almost anyone, considering he's heading into his final arbitration offseason and wants a long-term, big-money deal. If he can get to .280, he'll likely get one — and the Braves likely will find the postseason;

What does it mean?

It still means this bunch is more talented than the middle-of-the-road, Jerry Seinfeld-Mr.-Breakeven M.O. that has defined this summer.

The Braves are 54-54. They are 27-27 on the road and at home. Until last night they had played 18 games that looked like this in the standings: W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L.

Even without Acuña and Ozuna and Soroka, the core of this team is better than that.

And they still have a chance to get where we believe they should be — atop the NL East.

Atlanta is 2.5 games behind the first-place Mets and a game back of the second-place Phillies. As difficult as the sailing was over the last three weeks, the waters of the next two-plus-weeks looks as calm as a meditating monk.

Three with a Nationals bunch that has folded its tents; three with a Reds team that could prove critical in the wildcard chase; three more with the Nationals; then three with the Marlins and the three with the Orioles. The Reds are 57-51, the other three teams that the Braves will face in those 12 games are a combined 57 games under .500.

The Braves made some moves, and they are not as good as they should be or as good as we thought they would be.

But they still have the future before them, and the time is now.

Odds are

OK, we are inside a month away from college football. I am excited.

(Side note: I'm not super confident with the growing number of COVID-19 cases that we're going to have full stadiums, but I am excited nonetheless.)

But those are real-world issues. Right now we are dealing with the eternal optimism of early August.

How eternal? Well, I can convince myself that UT could win 8 games. Yeah, that's optimistic, and no, I'm not speaking of the Longhorns. But that's a conversation for a different day.

This morning, I wanted to share the tidal wave of prop odds that have flooded my inbox. It's a fun conversation and dissection. Let's explore.

Here, from my friends at sportsbetting.ag, are some interesting details on the favorites to be the starting QBs at some of the more high-profile programs around the country:

> At THE Ohio State, CJ Stroud is the betting favorite at minus-300 (bet $300 to win $100) but among the four names on the board is the intriguing option of Quinn Ewers at +325;

> At FSU, transfer McKenzie Milton is minus-200 among the four names listed, including someone named Chubba Purdy at +500, and as someone who was called purdy chubby most of my heavyset youth, well, you know who I am rooting for;

> At Texas A&M, it's almost a coin flip between Haynes King (minus-140) and Zach Calzada at +100;

> And at Tennessee, well, this is interesting to me on a slew of levels — and remember the bet is decided on who takes the first snap of the season opener — because of the options, and other bets. Let's explore further.

When the email was sent to me the odds looked like this for UT's QB1: Joe Milton at +100, Harrison Bailey at +150, Hendon Hooker at +250 and Brian Maurer at +550.

Clicking on the sportsbetting.ag site this morning and the numbers are as follows: Milton minus-175, Bailey +190, Hooker +400 and Maurer still at +550.

Hmmmmmm. Remember, there is no incumbent edge here because of the new system, and Milton, the Michigan transfer who is clearly the most able runner of the group, has emerged as the favorite.

Thoughts?

The NFL puts down the vax facts

Yeah, regardless of what Bryson DeChambeau thinks — hey, he's been missing shots all summer, why should we expect different now? — the NFL is about to lay down the playbook on sports and vaccinations.

The NFL is at 90% vaccination and has not offered a hard-line ultimatum, but the league is highly incentivizing players to get the vaccine. How incentivized?

Vaccinated players, 14 days removed from the second shot, will get tested once every two weeks. That is all.

Unvaccinated players will get tested every day. Unvaccinated players will wear a mask around the facilities, on the team planes and have different rules in the weight rooms. The daily testing of unvaccinated players will happen at the team facility — or on the road — and players who leave town and miss a test will be fined $50K for each missed test. This includes leaving town for bye weeks, too.

Yes, there are a lot of concerns and dissenting opinions, and I do not plan to preach around these parts this morning.

But the NFL has billions at stake — yes, billions — and taking every possible step to try to eliminate a COVID stoppage or forfeits that alter the competitive landscape is not a political decision.

It's a prudent one.

And one that I am stunned that several other nine-to-10-figure athletic endeavors from college football to Bryson and the PGA have not pursued.

This and that

> You know the rules. Here's Paschall on the likable dude that is UT corner Alontae Taylor and the oversized running back that is Dee Beckwith. Side note: Football is a cyclical/copycat sport. All the way back to Bear Bryant, when something works, coaches and teams emulate it. Right now the shotgun, horizontal challenges of a dynamic QB are the rage. Well, with that comes linebackers and safeties that will be required to run and make plays in space. To counter that comes the oversized, 235-plus-pound running backs that will hammer defenses North and South. Call it the Derrick Henry Principle, if you like, but it is far from finished.

> Speaking of baseball teams being where we expected them to be, man it would be nice to have the Dodgers' (and Yankees') checkbook. The Dodgers got double-digit Ks from Max Scherzer last night in his L.A. debut and signed Cole Hamels to a $1 million deal that will pay him $200K for each start he makes down the stretch. Will Hamels help the Dodgers? Who knows, but it's a solid option for a team that had been using an opener because of injury and the Trevor Bauer mess. Plus, if Hamels is in a Dodgers uni, he can't be in a Padres or Giants uni, you know? As for the Yankees, yeah, Anthony Rizzo went deep again last night. Rizzo could be a McGriff-like deadline acquisition for the Pinstripers.

> Did you guys and gals see the viral video of the drunk goof who harassed and groped and even punched flight attendants earlier this week? Here's the clip, and know that the language is salty. Yeah, I remember my first beer too, jackwagon. I'm sorry as I can be, but if I had been on this plane — and some of you know the younger me and I was not always this calm pacifist — I would have whipped this dude into a coma. What a piece of work.

> Speaking of Quinn Ewers, here's a story on Ewers' high school coach trying to turn the page and move toward the season. Well handled by his coach in a surreal situation no one could have foreseen even five years ago.

> Another day, another Shohei shoutout. Dude fanned six in six innings of the Angels' 2-1 win Wednesday. And yeah, he leads the majors in homers.

Today's question

Gang, if you have a mailbag question, release the hounds. Trying to get those handled as soon as possible as we conclude our beach time.

As for today, well, loads to get to.

Who will be the Braves' most impactful acquisition?

As for today, well, let's backtrack and apologize because Wednesday was the 15th birthday for "Talladega Nights." Yeah, it makes me laugh.

As for today, William Wallace was captured on this day in 1305. That stupid Robert the Bruce. (I know it was his daddy, but still.)

"Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" was said by Admiral Farragut on this day in 1864.

Marcia Brady (Maureen McCormick) is 65 today. Patrick Ewing is 59.

But back to Ricky Bobby. Rushmore of quotes from "Talladega Nights." Go.