Jenoptik AG Just Missed Earnings And Its EPS Looked Sad - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
The full-year results for Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €855m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 6.0% to hit €1.18 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Jenoptik
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus fromseven analysts covering Jenoptik is for revenues of €837.6m in 2020, implying a measurable 2.1% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 5.9% to €1.11 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €877.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.33 in 2020. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of €26.50, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Jenoptik's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jenoptik at €31.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €13.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 2.1% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 7.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.1% next year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Jenoptik is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €26.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Jenoptik going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Jenoptik that you should be aware of.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.
