Jersey Shore tourism was great last year. Here are four things we need to make 2023 better

SEASIDE HEIGHTS - Now in her 46th year, Patti Hershey, owner of Hershey's Shake Shoppe Arcade, has gone down the checklist that by now she has down pat: She needs to make sure the arcade games are repaired and working. She needs to order tickets and merchandise. She needs to have her shop cleaned.

Hershey needs to hire four more employees. She needs to repair a sign on the roof that was damaged during a nor'easter two years ago. And she needs to make sure the outside of the boardwalk business is freshly painted, rejuvenating a building eroded by the salty sea air.

"I think it's going to be a good season," Hershey said Tuesday. "The preseason has been better than our previous preseasons. If that holds true, it would be great."

The Jersey Shore's summer season gets underway this Memorial Day weekend, bringing with it thousands of visitors who will pack boardwalks, beaches, bars, restaurants and inns. At least, that's what business owners such as Hershey hope.

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The local tourism industry has its work cut out to top last year, when a roaring economy and warm, dry weather attracted more than 19 million visitors. They spent more than $8.2 billion in Monmouth and Ocean counties, a 17% increase from 2021, a study by research firm Tourism Economics found.

During the past eight months, the Federal Reserve Board has been hiking interest rates to try to slow down the economy and bring inflation under control. Its policy has prompted worries of an impending recession. But so far, employers have continued to hire, and consumers have continued to spend money, defying the gloomy narrative, said Oliver Cooke, an economics professor at Stockton University in Galloway.

The economy can grind to a halt quickly if there is a hurricane or if Congress defaults on the nation's debt, but "excluding all of those wild cards, I think everyone thinks it's going to be a pretty strong summer Shore season," Cooke said.

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What pieces need to fall into place for the Shore to improve on last year?

Here are four factors to keep your eye on:

Hiring

The pandemic emergency has been lifted, helping employers hire workers who previously might have been nervous about COVID-19.

But the ball continues to remain in the workers' court, which could spell long hours for operators, long lines for customers — and extra wages for workers.

The New Jersey unemployment rate of 3.5% in April has ticked up since the end of last summer, when it was 3%. But more New Jerseyans are heading back to the work force — and finding jobs. The state added a whopping 15,800 jobs in April.

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Shop owners might find themselves in the position of Daniela Barbacini, owner of Lucky Leo's Sweet Shop in Seaside Heights, who increased wages and began reaching out to high schools in a bid to hire as many as 20 for the summer.

Teens at the candy store could make as much as $20 an hour when they include tips.

"I think (the labor shortage has) improved, but I can't really tell you why or how," Barbacini said. "We've done things a little differently. We're going through the schools. That seems to have helped."

Gas prices

The average gasoline price of $3.46 a gallon in New Jersey has risen a nickel in the past week. But motorists are likely to avoid a repeat of last summer, when tight supply and soaring demand sent prices to a record high of $5.06 on June 13, according to analysts.

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The slowing economy is moderating oil and gas prices. Paradoxically, it could lead to more cars on the road. One early indication: More than 1 million New Jerseyans are expected to travel at least 50 miles during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, up almost 7% over last year and reminiscent of prepandemic holiday travel, AAA said Tuesday.

As for the season, some 64% of Americans said they are planning to take a road trip this summer, up from 58% last year, according to GasBuddy.

"Today, Americans are spending about $460 million less (on gas) than 365 days ago," said Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis.

Motorists to the Shore should catch at least one break. Crews were expected to have completed concrete and drainage work as part of the Manahawkin Bay Bridge project leading to Long Beach Island. All three lanes on Route 72 eastbound/Ninth Street were scheduled to be restored early this week, the New Jersey Department of Transportation said.

Inflation

Consumer prices, last fall rising at a 40-year high, are easing in a sign that the Fed's interest rate hikes are taking hold. But visitors still will need to dig deeper into the pockets to pay the bill.

A trip to the Jersey Shore is likely to cost families 4% more this summer than last year, according to a report by Affinity Federal Credit Union.

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Driving the higher prices: Food and drink, including coffee, taffy and pizza, have increased 11%, while leisure activities such as miniature golf and amusement park rides are up 8%, the credit union said.

By comparison, visitors last year were facing a 16% increase in prices from 2021, Affinity said.

Merchants say they continue to be hit hard by rising prices. Dan Malay, owner of How You Brewin' and Poppy's Ice Cream Parlour on Long Beach Island, said a three-gallon tub of ice cream is $43, up from $35 last year.

The continual price hikes have added uncertainty to his stores. He traditionally sets his prices for the year each January and prints out his menus.

"I don’t want to do another (price increase) until next January, but it's very difficult not to," Malay said.

Weather

For all of the economic uncertainty, there is one sure bet: The Jersey Shore's tourism industry will live or die depending on the weather, leaving its fortunes beyond its control.

The catalyst for last year's blockbuster season? It was one of the warmest, driest summers on a record that dates to 1895, said David Robinson, state climatologist.

This summer, the National Weather Service predicts a 60% to 70% chance that temperatures in New Jersey will be above normal in June, July and August.

Meanwhile, Colorado State University predicts slightly fewer hurricanes for the Atlantic basin than average.

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"Our summers are getting warmer," Robinson said. "But there's nothing to say this summer is going to be as warm or warmer than last summer by any means. When you're looking at one of the warmest summers on record, you're better outlook would be on the conservative side — that it would be unlikely to be as warm or warmer than last summer."

"But it would follow the general rule that in recent years, our summers have gotten warmer," he said.

Michael L. Diamond is a business reporter who has been writing about the New Jersey economy and health care industry for more than 20 years. He can be reached at mdiamond@gannettnj.com.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Jersey Shore summer 2023 can beat last year with these 4 things