How jockeys and trainers performed on past Oaks and Derby Days? Ed DeRosa breaks it down
Kentucky Derby weekend is finally here, and while Churchill Downs races four months out of the year, from a handicapping perspective, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Days are really their own (pardon the pun) animal.
These are two of the absolute best days of racing in the world, so I like to look at how trainers and jockeys do specifically on these days.
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As usual when parsing stats, some results are surprising and some aren’t. The more important caveat, though, is just because a trainer is winless that does not mean you don’t bet them; it more so means you might want to pass on their horses taking money, though.
Trainer Steve Asmussen sticks out here not only for his success but also because he’s in the midst of a historically bad losing streak in Kentucky where through Wednesday, May 4, he has lost 72 consecutive races dating back to Nov. 28.
Backers of Echo Zulu in the Oaks or Epicenter in the Derby will be happy to see that the Racing Hall of Fame conditioner does very well on these days, though, and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t break his losing streak this week.
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Backers of Tiz the Bomb (as I am) or Smile Happy might not like the Ken McPeek stat as much, but again, I see it more as a cause for pause at a short price but won’t let it deter me from betting a longshot (as Tiz the Bomb is).
On the other side of the Tiz the Bomb argument, though, is jockey, and my Derby pick’s pilot, Brian Hernandez Jr., does very well on Oaks and Derby Days. So does Flavian Prat, who previously was at Churchill just for the week while regularly riding in California, but he has moved his tack East for spring-summer 2022.
The Impact score is a proprietary formula from Horse Racing Nation (full disclosure: my employer) that takes into account the odds of every starter and the expected win totals based on those odds. This is a better measurement than ROI because it takes into account all starters versus just winners.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Past Kentucky Derby, Oaks performances: Jockey, trainer performances
