Who will Joe Biden pick for his running mate? History may be the best guide

For a candidate challenging an incumbent U.S. president, Joe Biden doesn’t appear to be doing very much. Online speeches, an event down the street from his Delaware basement studio, media interviews via Zoom.

Biden’s relative silence may actually explain how he’s developed such a large — and expanding — lead in national and crucial state polls at this early stage. Even better for Biden, less than a quarter of Americans now say the country is on “the right track.”

Biden has left President Donald Trump to wallow in the dismaying uncertainty and pervasive inconvenience of renewed COVID-19 shutdowns, their economic devastation and the self-inflicted wounds of his own petty Twitter feuds.

But you can bet that off-camera, Biden’s hand-picked search team is intensely vetting a shrinking list of female vice-presidential partners, the alleged winner to be announced early next month. Such carefully staged human unveilings — recall Paul Ryan walking down the ship ramp as Mitt Romney’s partner in 2012 — attract keen media interest momentarily.

Conventional wisdom holds that the pick provides a poll bump. Exactly four years ago this week, Hillary Clinton’s selection of Sen. Tim Kaine for the ticket actually hurt her standing. Otherwise, there’s little evidence of significant or lasting impact except — wait for it — in 2008 when John McCain unexpectedly chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, and they jumped to a poll lead. The promising ticket, however, was soon swamped in that autumn’s economic crisis and animus toward the departing GOP administration of George W. Bush.

This 2020 vice presidential choice, however, is likely to attract more lasting attention because if Democrats do oust the orange usurper in 105 days, Biden at 78 will be by far the oldest president, incoming or outgoing, with health an obvious concern. After 44 years in Washington, the Senate veteran and ex-vice president often misspeaks; last week he pronounced Arizona “an important city.”

Biden has attempted to address questions about his mental acuity by telling reporters he’s been frequently “checked,” whatever that means.

So, voters are likely to prefer a younger Democratic running mate capable of becoming the first female commander in chief. That would seem to require gravitas and, above all, serious experience both in government and campaigning. Being picked would also be politically inviting since a Biden reelection at age 81 seems unlikely, leaving his vice president as the experienced heir apparent.

Biden has not often delivered surprises, except the kind of verbal troubles he manufactures. If history is any guide — and it often is for Democrats — Biden’s pick will be a senator, despite their own poor records seeking the presidency. Think Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Biden himself.

Of the 23 presidential elections since 1928, Democratic nominees have selected a senator as their partner all but four times. And one of those four replaced a senator who dropped out over undisclosed treatments for mental illness.

Republicans have preferred governors and House members, choosing senatorial running mates only six times in that same period.

But current office is only one of Biden’s considerations. How important is his running mate’s home state, and what happens to their Senate seat if Democrats win the White House and Senate control is possible? That could eliminate Elizabeth Warren, the senator from Massachusetts whose progressive appeal is strong, but a Republican governor would fill her vacancy. And she’s 71 years old anyway.

Minnesota’s Sen. Amy Klobuchar has taken herself out of the running, urging Biden to select a woman of color.

Sen. Kamala Harris of California is the consensus guess of outsiders. She’s Black, a generation younger than Biden, with six years of experience as a sometimes controversial state attorney general, three as a senator (the same as Barack Obama when he was elected) and this past national primary campaign under her belt. She did wound Biden in one debate, but her campaign performances were inconsistent.

Biden told MSNBC Monday night that his vice presidential short list includes four Black women. A Democratic governor would name Harris’ successor, and California’s 55 electoral votes are a gimme for Democrats. So, her choice wouldn’t threaten or help there.

Biden might also go for Arizona’s freshman Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and her state’s once-solidly GOP 11 electoral votes. A former state and federal representative, the 44-year-old Sinema is openly bisexual and leans toward the moderate political side.

What might well appeal to Biden, however, is selecting Wisconsin’s more experienced two-term senator, Tammy Baldwin. That’s a crucial swing state (and founding home of the Republican Party) whose 10 electoral votes Democrats saw narrowly tilt to the GOP in 2016 for the first time since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide reelection.

Baldwin is a reliable progressive, 20 years younger than Biden, a veteran of both local and state governments, plus seven House terms, all as an openly gay woman. That resume checks a lot of boxes for Democrats.

Both Biden and Trump need Wisconsin and its blue-collar votes. Baldwin has no national campaign experience, but she has proven successful at home with national appeal; 73% of her initial Senate election donations came from outside the state. She defeated Wisconsin political legend Tommy Thompson in 2012 with 52% of the vote and won reelection with 55%.

Now, how does this sound? If Biden asked Baldwin to join his ticket, she answers, “I would surely say yes.”