John Calipari’s next move(s) might decide Kentucky basketball’s 2023-24 fate

No sooner than one could say “Lance Ware is in the portal” than a hard reality set in about the 2023-24 Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball roster as it presently stands.

As of now, the Cats have only seven recruited, scholarship players — five lavishly hyped incoming freshmen and two sparsely used but promising sophomores — who are committed to playing this winter for the Big Blue.

It does not seem a stretch to think that how John Calipari handles the filling out of the Kentucky roster in the coming weeks will determine what the realistic competitive arc is for the Wildcats in 2023-24.

If UK is to get out of the initial weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019 — much less make a run at Kentucky’s first Final Four since 2015 — Calipari almost certainly needs to supplement his presently youthful roster with the right complement of veteran players.

In an ideal world (from the UK perspective), three key players off the Wildcats’ 22-12 team from this past season — Oscar Tshiebwe, Antonio Reeves and Chris Livingston — would return to provide the veteran moxie and physical maturity the Cats’ freshman-heavy 2023-24 squad will need to compete at the highest level of college hoops.

All three presently have their names in the NBA Draft. They have until 11:59 p.m. EDT on May 31 to make the decision on whether to follow through on turning pro or remove their names and return to college hoops.

Two announcements Thursday greatly heightened UK’s need for Tshiebwe to return. Ware, UK’s high-energy backup big man, entered the transfer portal. Also, 7-foot-1 Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson chose Kansas, not Kentucky, as his new hoops destination

Nevertheless, in an appearance on “The Dan Patrick Show” on Thursday, Calipari said he is continuing to reach out to NBA personnel on behalf of Tshiebwe, including recently speaking with an unnamed team owner.

“Do I want to coach Oscar another year?” Calipari asked himself rhetorically on the Patrick show. “’Yes. Yes. What am I, stupid? Yes, I want to coach him another year.’ But, if I am doing right by him, I’ve got to give him every opportunity to run this out and see exactly where he is” with the NBA.

As has been oft-discussed, the 6-foot-9, 255-pound Tshiebwe is not a natural fit for the NBA’s current emphasis on three-point shooting and pick-and-roll actions.

But getting the two-time All-America selection — who has averaged 21.0 points and 19.7 rebounds in the three NCAA Tournament games he has played for Kentucky — back for his “free COVID season” would be a boon for UK.

The 6-foot-5, 205-pound Reeves (14.4 points, 39.8 percent three-point shooting in 2022-23) also has the opportunity to return by using the extra season of eligibility that the NCAA granted all college athletes enrolled during the coronavirus-impacted 2020-21 school year.

To this point, the Illinois State transfer’s name is not showing up in the most visible of the NBA mock drafts.

So if Reeves comes back for a fifth college season, Kentucky will get an adept, if streaky, outside shooter and a veteran backcourt presence. Should he depart, however, then UK will have a near-desperate need from the portal for both outside shooting and a guard with experience.

A 6-6, 220-pound sophomore-to-be, Livingston (6.3 points, 4.2 rebounds in 2022-23) would seem to have the most-tricky stay-or-go decision. If he returns to college basketball — which would not necessarily have to be at Kentucky — he would seem to have the talent to play his way into a far-more-coveted NBA Draft prospect.

However, the Akron, Ohio, product is represented by the Klutch Sports Group (think LeBron James’ agent, Rich Paul), an agency that might have the juice to get an NBA team to use a draft choice on Livingston now.

Creating a tight rope that Calipari must walk, if all three players were to ultimately return to Lexington, Kentucky likely would not need to add anyone from the NCAA transfer portal. Conversely, however many of the currently-in-limbo trio ultimately decide to leave UK, Calipari will need to replace that number on the Wildcats roster.

Complicating matters is that the talent available in the transfer portal will presumably thin as time progresses, meaning the Wildcats brain trust needs to have a pretty good idea now what Tshiebwe, Reeves and Livingston will ultimately decide.

As we have seen in observing Kentucky’s challenges in roster management in recent years, the task of projecting what players are going to do in regards to their professional futures can be vexing.

Bottom line: John Calipari is projected to make $8.6 million for coaching UK in 2023-24. If he can successfully navigate next season’s Kentucky roster through the coming weeks of uncertainty, he will have earned a good chunk of that money.

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