John Carroll, Case, Notre Dame College football teams control own destiny

Oct. 23—It's all on the table for three area college football programs heading into the home stretch of the regular season.

John Carroll, Case Western Reserve and Notre Dame College do not need help while going for a conference championship.

It's simple for the Blue Steaks, Falcons and Spartans — win their final three regular-season games and they will be conference champions.

If JCU and Case do that, it would include an automatic spot in the NCAA Division III playoffs. In Division II — where NDC competes — auto bids for conference championship are not awarded but a 9-2 Falcons team would likely warrant strong consideration for an NCAA playoff spot.

Navigating the final three weeks present challenges. Here's what lies ahead for the programs:

John Carroll's Evan McVay celebrates a touchdown during his team's win over Capital on Oct. 22. (Brian Fisher ??

John Carroll

—Record: 6-1, 6-0 Ohio Athletic Conference

—Next three games: Oct. 29, at Muskingum, 1:30; Nov. 5, at Mount Union, 1:30; Nov. 12, Otterbein, noon

—What to look for: All signs point to a Showdown Saturday on Nov. 5 in Alliance with the outright OAC championship on the line. Of course, there are games sandwiched around the Mount game. JCU must take care of 4-3 Muskingum and then 2-5 Otterbein to close out the regular season. Considering how it has played during its six-game OAC winning streak, there isn't much to point to Coach Drew Nystrom's team not taking care of those opponents. All eyes will be on the game against the 7-0 and No. 2-ranked Purple Raiders, who have not been tested this season. The players to watch for Mount are QB Braxton Plunk (2,054 yards, 25 TD passes, three interceptions), running back Deandre Parker (674 yards 12 TDs) and wide receiver Wayne Ruby, who has been unstoppable this fall. Ruby has 49 receptions for 1,045 yards (21.3-yard average) and a whopping 18 touchdowns. Can the Blue Streaks' defense at least slow down the Purple Raiders' offense? To offset that, JCU's offense must put points on the board. The big three of QB Joe Collins (1,608 yards, 18 TD passes, four interceptions), running back Evan McVay (787 rushing/receiving yards, nine TDs) and wide receiver Brennan Fugh (34 receptions, 639 yards, five TDs) have been doing that of late. JCU's special teams have been solid all season with reliable punter Grant Gonya (46.7-yard average)) and Yanni Volas (4 of 6 field goals and 29 of 29 extra points). Since 2005, the Purple Raiders have lost twice — yes, twice — in OAC competition. One of those losses was in 2016 against JCU. For the Blue Streaks to repeat that historic win, they will need to be great in all phases.

Bottom line: Of the three area teams controlling their destiny for a conference crown, the Blue Steaks have by far the most difficult task and the reason is obvious — it will be must-win for them Nov. 5 in Alliance.

Case Western Reserve coach Greg Debeljak after his team beat Washington and Jefferson, 14-10, on Sept. 17. (Tim Phillis ??

Case Western Reserve

Record: 5-2, 4-1 Presidents' Athletic Conference

Next three games: Oct. 29, at Allegheny, 1; Nov. 5, at Westminster, 1; Nov. 12, Carnegie Mellon, 2

What to look for: The Spartans on Oct. 22 got a huge boost when Grove City — which defeated Case, 14-13, earlier this season — lost to Westminster. That loss was Grove City's second in conference play, setting the stage for the Spartans and PAC leader Carnegie Mellon (8-0, 6-0 PAC) the next three weeks. Mellon plays Saint Vincent Oct. 29 then is off Nov. 5, so it will have two weeks to prepare for Case. The Spartans have a difficult road. On Oct. 29, they play at 2-6 Allegheny then again at 4-3 Westminster Nov. 5. Case has been efficient on offense — it's averaging 30 points and 418 yards. It's the defense that's upped its game through six games. It's allowing 317 yards per game and 20 points. Since losing to Top 10 opponent Johns Hopkins in Week 1, 54-14, the Spartans' D has been even better, allowing 15 points per contest. Another fact to consider — Coach Greg Debeljak has shown the ability to win shootouts and defensive struggles, and that should come in handy against defensive-minded teams such as Westminster and Carnegie Mellon. That's especially true for Mellon, which has won two games in 2022 without scoring an offensive touchdown.

Bottom line: Case's last two games will be a challenge, and it must be prepared for the possibility of two slug-it-out games vs. Westminster and Mellon. Another factor consider: Debeljak has a four-year starter at quarterback in Drew Saxton, who can be trusted in any situation. But Debeljak hasn't been shy about playing backup QB Ian Kipp of Mentor, so it would not be a surprise if Kipp makes an impact at a key moment in either game.

Notre Dame College running back Idris Lawrence in action during his team's win over Glenville State on Oct. 22. (Frank Gambatese ??

Notre Dame College

Record: 6-2, 6-1 Mountain East Conference

Next three games: Oct. 29, at Fairmount State, noon; Nov. 5, UNC Pembroke, noon; Nov. 12 at Alderson Broaddus, 1

What to look for: Similar to Case, NDC got some help on Oct. 22 when Concord — which was tied with the Falcons in the MEC heading into the day — lost at West Virginia State. That puts the Falcons one game up on the field in the conference standings. It was the help Coach Garrett Mack's team needed since NDC and Concord don't play each other in the regular season in the 12-team MEC. The combined record of the Falcons' last three opponents is 7-17 so in that respect, advantage NDC. The program is playing winning football behind the steady play of fifth-year starting quarterback Chris Brimm, who is 46-7 in his career and just four wins shy of Boise State's Kellen Moore's NCAA record of 50 wins by a QB. On special teams, the unit has four blocked punts (ranked No. 1 nationally in Division II). Defensively, that unit has four touchdowns (No. 2 nationally in D-II).

Bottom line: Among the three area college programs vying for a conference championship, NDC has by far the easiest path on paper. If the Falcons play smart and turnover-free, there's no reason to think they won't be hoisting a fifth-straight MEC championship trophy in three weeks.