John Clay’s college basketball preseason Top 25: It’s Purdue’s year for redemption

John Clay’s Top 25:

1. Purdue

Yes, I know. As a No. 1 seed, the Boilermakers got stunned-and-done by No. 16 seed Fairleigh “Shocking” Dickinson in last year’s NCAA tourney. So what a great story it’ll be when Matt Painter and Purdue duplicate what Tony Bennett and Virginia did in 2019 — bounced by a No. 16 seed one year, only to win the whole thing the next.

2. Kansas

The Jayhawks are most everyone’s choice for preseason No. 1. And why not? As usual, Bill Self has a top-10 recruiting class to go with returning starters Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar and K.J. Adams. By March, Rock Chalk could be the chalk to win its second title in three seasons.

3. Florida Atlantic

The Owls won’t be a Cinderella this year. Coach Dusty May returns all five starters from the FAU team that crashed last year’s Final Four.

4. Duke

The Blue Devils return their top four scorers for Jon Scheyer’s sophomore season as head coach. Plus, Duke has another top-tier recruiting class.

5. Michigan State

Tom Izzo has five of his six top scorers back to go along with fab freshmen Xavier Booker and Jeremy Fears. Izzo hasn’t been in the Final Four since 2019. He’s due.

6. Tennessee

Zakai Zeigler and Josiah-Jordan James join Santiago Vescovi for his 100th year of college basketball — or so it seems. But the Vol to watch is Dalton Knecht, a graduate student transfer from Northern Colorado.

7. Houston

Kelvin Sampson’s teams are always a royal pain to play, and this season should be no different. Adding Baylor transfer LJ Cryer helps.

8. Marquette

Connecticut won last year’s national title, but it was Marquette actually won the Big East regular-season title and the conference tournament. Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones are valuable returnees for Shaka Smart.

9. Arkansas

Eric Musselman once again will stir the Razorbacks’ pot of returnees, heralded freshmen and key transfer portal additions. Trevon Brazile missed most of last year after transferring from Missouri. He’s a big talent and bigger key.

10. Creighton

Another Big East team. Keep an eye on Steven Ashworth, a transfer from Utah State who should keep Coach Doug McDermott’s team in the national conversation.

11. Connecticut

The cupboard isn’t bare for the defending national champs. Danny Hurley has three of his top five scorers back. Plus, UConn brings in a top-five recruiting class as well as Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer.

12. Miami (Fla.)

If you’ve forgotten, Jim Larrañaga had the Hurricanes in last season’s Final Four. Three starters return. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland should help, as well.

13. San Diego State

If you’ve forgotten, the Aztecs were not only in last season’s Final Four, they reached the title game before losing out to the Huskies. Four of the top six scorers return for Brian Dutcher. And you know the Aztecs will play defense.

14. Texas A&M

Buzz Williams has four starters back from a team that reached the NCAA Tournament last year. The return of Wade Taylor IV to run the show helps.

15. Southern Cal

On the plus side, the Trojans have Isaiah Collier, lauded as the No. 1 prospect in the class of 2023. On the minus side, Southern Cal isn’t sure if it will have Bronny James, son of LeBron, who is recovering after collapsing on the court during a July practice.

16. Texas

Oral Roberts transfer Max Abmas should help a Texas team that returns just two of its top five scorers from last season.

17. Gonzaga

The Zags might have lost their Final Four caliber zip, but Mark Few is not lacking weapons. Holdovers Anton Watson, Nolan Hickman and Ben Gregg join transfers Ryan Nembhard (Creighton), Graham Ike (Wyoming) and Steele Venters (Eastern Washington).

18. Kentucky

John Calipari has gone back to the future, filling his roster full of former high school stars. Still, the key to the team will be when or if any of his trio of 7-footers — Aaron Bradshaw, Ugonna Onyenso and Zvonimir Ivišić — get healthy or eligible. The sooner the better.

19. Arizona

The key to the Wildcats’ season could be North Carolina transfer Caleb Love, who joins holdovers Oumar Ballo and Pelle Larsson for Tommy Lloyd’s team.

20. Baylor

Scott Drew must make do without LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler and Keyonte George, but the Bears do return three of their top six scorers. Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis was the MAC Player of the Year.

21. North Carolina

Hubert Davis is hoping for a bounce-back year after the Heels went from national runner-ups to not even making the Big Dance in 2024. Graybeards R.J. Davis and Armando Bacot lead the way.

22. St. John’s

Rick Pitino revamped the St. John’s roster, so it might take time for the Red Storm to click. By March, no one will want to see St. John’s on the same side of their bracket.

23. Illinois

Brad Underwood has three of his top four scorers back, led by Terrence Shannon. Oregon transfer Quincy Guerrier is a solid addition.

24. Villanova

You knew Jay Wright left some big shoes to fill, but it was a rough first season for his successor, Kyle Neptune. Transfers Tyler Burton (Richmond), Hakim Hart (Maryland) and TJ Bamba (Washington State) should help his second year go a bit more smoothly.

25. Alabama

Nate Oats lost too much talent to think that last year’s overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament will be a top-10 team this season. Still, Oats has enough pieces to keep Bama in the mix.

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