Johns Hopkins Doctor: We're not going to get a vaccine for everyone in the world for a long time

John Hopkins Biocontainment Unit Medical Director Dr. Brian Garibaldi joins Yahoo Finance’s Zack Guzman to discuss the timeline of a coronavirus treatment, as global cases surpass 5 million, according to John Hopkins data.

Video Transcript

ZACK GUZMAN: While we're talking about that, though, there are, of course, a lot of concerns about second waves. And, of course, that means that the vaccine progress when we talk about coronavirus is still top of mind and very important to document. We've got the update today out of the University of Oxford in terms of the vaccine trial there moving ahead in a larger amount of testing it on patients there. They will move forward with that vaccine being tested on more than 10,000 volunteers across the UK.

That's one of many vaccine trials in progress, including the Moderna one this week that we got the update on and really kicked up the optimism that we saw play out in the markets. But for more on that and a lot of the questions that are still out there about concerns and risks associated with the second wave, I want to get to Dr. Brian Garibaldi. Johns Hopkins Biocontainment Unit medical director joins us now on the show.

And Dr. Garibaldi, I mean, when we look at it, it's promising. We think about the vaccine timeline. Dr. Fauci said that he's optimistic that potentially we could get a vaccine by the end of the year. What's your timeline looking like? And how do you make of the fact that we are basically seeing all these trials progress on their own timelines? You've got China, the UK's and ours here in the US. How do you grade the progress being made right now?

BRIAN GARIBALDI: So, I mean, this is unprecedented, right? When you think about how long it normally takes to develop a vaccine, make sure that it's safe and prove that it's effective, I mean, we're talking on a timeline of years and years, not months. So I think, you know, this is just an unprecedented speed at which people are developing these vaccines and getting them into human trials.

I think it's important to remember, though, that that we still don't know-- while there's some emerging hope that some of these vaccines are creating antibody responses, meaning that the immune system is responding to them, we don't yet know what that's going to lead to in terms of effectiveness, right? So, you know, we hope that this would mean that people don't get infected. But it may mean that when they do get infected, it's perhaps less severe.

And that's really what these next phase of trials are going to start to look at is not only is this safe, but does it actually potentially protect people from the vaccine? I think not only do we have to consider the timeline of create or getting the data that these are effective, I mean, ramping up the production and the administration and the distribution of vaccines to the people who need to get them and even deciding what that process is.

We're not going to have vaccine for everyone in the world for a long period of time. So who should get the vaccine first? Are there certain populations that would benefit both individually but also for the public good? I think those are going to be really important discussions over the next several months as we see what starts to happen with these ramping up of the trials.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, I mean, obviously, there are a lot of concerns, as we approach the fall, that flu season might complicate all of this as well. But right now, we are seeing global cases rise in the Middle East and Latin America. And obviously our summer is their winter. So when you look at Latin America and these rules and the way that again, we're dealing with this and the global situation.

Interesting, the UK announcing new rules there that international travelers would have to quarantine for 14 days or get hit with 1,000 pound fine. When you think about how this is a global problem, I can't imagine the US would be able to enforce something similar. They could put it into practice.

But enforcing it it's another issue when we think about Americans not necessarily even wanting to wear masks. So what do you make of the new issues that might arise when we think about hot zones around the globe and this kind of being a rolling problem maybe if it's not necessarily as out of control as it used to be here in the US?

BRIAN GARIBALDI: Well, I think that's right. I mean, just the way that we've been thinking about in the US in terms of, you know, each individual state really has to look at the situation in their own state, as they're thinking about how to open schools or businesses or relaxing social distancing guidelines. You know, I think the same really applies to other areas around the world when you start thinking about putting into place specific policies about travel advisories or on the more extreme side, quarantining folks from certain areas.

And I think it really gets back to the data, right? Do we have enough data to really understand where these hotspots are? And I think we're making progress in terms of being able to test and to understand where there might be new hotspots both in the US but also around the world. But I'm not sure we have the data yet to make an informed decision about, are there certain areas that you should restrict travelers from?

Or even if those policies will be effective, I mean, you know, I think we know that this virus is going across borders no matter what. Or you can close your borders, but you can't really close the borders to the virus that it doesn't respect geographic or political boundaries. So the effectiveness of such measures, I think, is yet to be proven. But, again, I think it all goes back to, do we have the data to inform them to really make intelligent decisions about them?

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, and you talk about that data, I mean, I guess it does kind of depend on testing. The ability to test here in the US has made some progress. Some people say it's not enough to think about reopening the economy now fully. And there are concerns about that.

But when you hear President Trump talking about it, he basically said that we're not going to shut down ever again. There might be hot zones-- cases that pop up in some states. And you put those embers out to use his words.

And then you have Dr. Fauci saying that there could be irreparable damage if we don't reopen right now in terms of the economic impact. So I mean, how do you weigh all those things in thinking about whether or not we have the tools in place to manage and actually effectively put out embers and prevent another outbreak in these more specific localities?

BRIAN GARIBALDI: Well, you know, I think this is just another example of how this virus has touched every aspect of our lives, right? It's not just about keeping people healthy from the virus itself, but it's about people being able to work, being able to make a living, being able to support their families, being able to support children's development.

You know, I don't think there's a right answer. This is unprecedented both in terms of the issues that we're dealing with, but also in terms of the data that we now have available that we didn't have back in 1918 during pandemic influenza at that time.

So I don't think there's really a playbook for how do you put these things into place and try to balance the real risks to people's health from the virus versus the risk to their health and well-being from the economic complications and potential loss of jobs that go along with the shutdowns that we've had.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, and as you highlight kind of the reason why all this matters in avoiding a second shutdown, even though the president says that that shouldn't be on the table, I mean, in terms of timeline, obviously, we knew that testing mattered quite importantly before all this happened. You could have put that in place before the first cases came from China here to the US. But now as you look at the timeline ahead of the flu season, is this now potentially even more of an important time to get things right than it was back in February or the beginning of March?

BRIAN GARIBALDI: Well, you know, I think the flu season is a really important time benchmark for us, because during that season, we know there's going to be an increase in the number of people who are hospitalized with respiratory viruses from both the flu and from the coronavirus. We have no idea what co-infection is really going to look like if this will lead to more severe disease or different populations that are going to be at risk.

So I think focusing on, do we have the appropriate bed capacity in hospitals? Do we have the appropriate personal protective equipment to keep frontline providers, frontline responders, and patients and their families safe? I think this is a really critical issue. We need to be ramping up our capacity and not just being satisfied that we flatten the curve in many parts of the country. We're not necessarily prepared for what may happen in the fall if we see just a huge influx of just sick patients with respiratory symptoms.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, I know. A very good reminder, especially, as photos circulate of people a couple weeks ago breaking down those overflow hospitals that were set up here in New York City. But Dr. Brian Garibaldi, Johns Hopkins Biocontainment Unit medical director-- appreciate you taking the time to chat with us, as always.

BRIAN GARIBALDI: Oh, thanks for having me-- appreciate it.