At Johnson’s most vulnerable point yet, GOP sees potential successors jostle

Mike Johnson’s speakership is reaching its most vulnerable point yet, with House GOP discontent spreading beyond the conservatives whose fury has spiked over his handling of a foreign aid plan that will need major Democratic help to pass.

The Republicans who are most clearly positioned to step in if Johnson falls from power, though — whether that happens this year or after Election Day — are the same three who tried and and failed to get the gavel back in October: Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

Republican lawmakers started identifying the jockeying months ago, as POLITICO first reported. But as the GOP conference attempts to stay focused on Election Day, the ouster effort led by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is shining a new spotlight on the posturing.

About half of the more than two dozen House Republicans interviewed for this story said they had noticed signs of senior colleagues trying to earn chits for a possible rise in the leadership ranks. The very fact that his own members see rivals scheming to replace him before an ouster vote puts Johnson’s shaky standing with his conference on stark display — though it also raises serious questions about whether Scalise, Emmer or Jordan can make a successful second run at leading the at-times ungovernable conference.

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), a former chair of the conservative Freedom Caucus, said the posturing extends beyond those three members, pointing to favor-currying by “people that might even surprise you.” He declined to name names.

While colleagues are closely watching Scalise, Emmer and Jordan, the biggest scrutiny is falling on Scalise as Johnson pushes forward on a foreign aid package that could trigger a vote on his removal. Scalise is seen as the biggest threat to Johnson, not simply because he’s the House GOP’s No. 2. He earned more support in October’s frenetic leadership fights than Emmer or Jordan, and it’s clear that he’s still interested in the top spot.

For some Republicans, it’s enough to bring on flashbacks to his fraught relationship with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Suspicion of Scalise appears highest among GOP lawmakers who closely observed the McCarthy-Scalise dynamic.

“Scalise has been knifing him since the beginning,” one House Republican said of Johnson, speaking candidly on condition of anonymity.

Scalise has brushed off the private chatter, though he didn’t answer directly when asked if he’s ruled out a challenge to Johnson in the future — saying that he isn’t “worried about what happens next year” and emphasizing the importance of Election Day.

“Anybody that’s talking about what titles they want for next year is really not focused on what’s right in front of us,” Scalise added.

Allies of Scalise strongly argue against this and say that he and Johnson, as two Louisiana delegation-mates, have a good relationship. And unlike Emmer or Jordan, Scalise voted with Johnson last week to bring down a conservative-backed amendment to government surveillance law that would have added a warrant requirement for certain uses of the spy power.

The Republicans who sense maneuvering among potential future conference leaders point to subtle attempts at patching up political vulnerabilities — like courting once-unfriendly reporters, patching up problems with Trump world and turning former foes inside the conference into allies. At other times, though, possible contenders to replace Johnson go the typical route of touting strong fundraising and extending campaign-trail goodwill to vulnerable members.

Brazenly angling for the top spot, after all, would risk alienating backers and inviting criticism. Importantly, Emmer and Jordan have also dismissed the idea of challenging the speaker.

“I’m not running against him,” Jordan said when asked whether he is weighing a challenge against Johnson after the November elections, adding: “We should keep Mike Johnson in charge of the House.”

Yet even if Johnson survives Greene’s threat, frustration with him is growing stronger among members even outside of the usual suspects in the Freedom Caucus. While many of them don’t care for a repeat of last fall’s punishing speakership race, some privately say they are waiting until November’s post-election leadership battles to show their disappointment with Johnson.

A growing group of Republicans predict Johnson will either step aside or be thrown out if they lose the majority this fall, though he may have a stronger chance at holding on if the GOP manages to keep the House.

“The votes aren’t there for him,” said a third House Republican, who said they presumed Johnson would step aside after Election Day.

Johnson’s allies have largely dismissed the idea that his days in charge are numbered regardless of the November election results. In an interview last month, Johnson said he hasn’t “even considered” his plans for seeking the top spot again and has not “given thought to” the possibility of whether or not members of his current leadership team will try to challenge him for the top spot.

Asked if he trusts his leadership team, the speaker emphatically replied “oh, yeah.”

Jordan’s allies, however, are especially vocal that the conservative Freedom Caucus co-founder should consider trying to replace Johnson at the top, particularly if Republicans lose the chamber come November.

“I like Jim Jordan. I think he should have a shot at being speaker. I think he will have a shot at being speaker after the election. But to move it up now — I’m just not sure it makes any sense,” said Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.).

One senior House Republican, also granted anonymity to speak candidly, told POLITICO: “Jordan is challenging him, period. I know what I am talking about.

“The question is what does Scalise do?” this member added. “Johnson is so damn clueless he will run again regardless. But Jordan is in — he can beat Johnson, but not Scalise, in my opinion.”

Despite Jordan’s public disavowal of any interest in a challenge, he has raised some eyebrows since Johnson has become speaker with some remarks he’s made in front of colleagues behind closed doors, according to three GOP members — including remarks along the lines of “the way I would’ve done it is” or what the speaker “should have done.” Those types of remarks, these people noted, didn’t happen in front of other members when he disagreed with McCarthy on policy matters.

“You’re seeing Jordan just get really adamant … about certain things that he wouldn’t have been under McCarthy,” said a second senior House Republican.

“It is totally false that Jim Jordan is positioning for anything and [he] is 100 percent behind Mike Johnson,” said Jordan spokesperson Russell Dye.

There are also some members who profess to not see the positioning going on — though some say they wouldn’t be surprised either.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if they did. But I can’t say that I have [seen it],” said Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), a former Freedom Caucus chair.

Eyes are also on the No. 3. A third senior House Republican strongly denied that Scalise would undermine Johnson and pointed a finger directly at Emmer, professing to have personally observed the whip undercut the speaker.

Emmer was blocked last year from ascending to the gavel — after Scalise and Jordan failed — in part because the former president was rallying against him. Now he and Trump have worked to patch over differences, with the presumptive presidential nominee publicly endorsing Emmer on Truth Social earlier this month. CNN first reported on that development and signs of broader posturing.

And beyond Scalise, Emmer and Jordan, there may be more aspiring candidates waiting to try to take on Johnson. Biggs isn’t the only one who senses that.

“Every single person thinks that they are speaker material. And so, do I think that all those people are right now kind of watching and circling a little bit? Yes,” said another House Republican, speaking on condition of anonymity.