What Josh Allen, Carson Wentz and QBs in draft have to do with Eagles backing Jalen Hurts

We have heard all during the offseason that the Eagles are committed to Jalen Hurts as the quarterback for the 2022 season.

They didn't trade for someone like Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson or Matt Ryan, who went to Denver, Cleveland and Indianapolis, respectively.

They most likely won't trade for deposed Browns starter Baker Mayfield or the 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo, either.

And judging from the comments made by general manager Howie Roseman as recently as Wednesday, the Eagles are all in on Hurts. That makes it very unlikely that they would use a first-round pick (Nos. 15 and 18) in next week's draft on quarterbacks Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis.

"We're excited about Jalen Hurts, and we're going to support Jalen, and we want him to have a great career in Philly," Roseman said.

But the Eagles' reasons for backing Hurts aren't necessarily because they believe that Hurts will become the next franchise quarterback.

Rather, it's likely the result of the changing landscape in the NFL, where quarterbacks on a rookie contract are much more valuable, at least for young teams still building a roster like the Eagles.

Wilson, Watson and Ryan, all of whom are in the $40 million per season range, which comprises about one-fifth of an NFL team's salary cap.

Garoppolo and Mayfield are in the $20 million to $30 million range for 2022.

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If the Eagles were close to becoming a Super Bowl contender, one of those quarterbacks might have been a risk worth taking. But the Eagles' priority is improving the entire team.

So having a 23-year-old quarterback in Hurts on his rookie contract, which for 2022 counts about $1.6 million against the cap, is essential.

"I always tell everybody, if it’s close, you’re going to 100% go with the rookie (quarterback) over the veteran," NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. "(That's) because it’s not the rookie vs. the veteran. It’s the rookie and the 3 or 4 other players you’re going to be able to fit in that same salary structure vs. the veteran."

If Hurts doesn't work out this year, the Eagles have two first-round picks in 2023 to draft a quarterback, who will be on his rookie contract for up to five years.

Sure, the Eagles could hedge their bets next week by taking Pickett or Willis.

But that would be counterproductive. For one, it would waste the first year of that QBs rookie contract with Hurts still on the roster.

Secondly, the QB draft in 2023 is expected to be betterwith Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud considered the top prospects.

Hurts, the Eagles' second-round pick in 2020, won't be in the final year of his rookie deal until 2023. He'll still only count $1.9 million on the salary cap. At that point, the Eagles will have to decide whether or not to give him a second contract worth around $25 million or more per year.

If they don't give him a new deal, they can rejoin the rookie QB salary scale with a drafted QB.

That happens often. The Jets did this with Sam Darnold in 2018 followed by Zach Wilson three years later. The Arizona Cardinals did this with Josh Rosen, then replaced him one year later with Kyler Murray.

The Bengals, meanwhile, went to the Super Bowl with Joe Burrow, who's in his second season. And the Chiefs became perennial Super Bowl contenders with Patrick Mahomes on his rookie contract.

Mahomes, obviously, is the Chiefs' franchise quarterback, and they paid him as such with his 10-year deal worth as much as $450 million. But the Chiefs couldn't afford to keep wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who asked for a trade then signed a deal with an average annual value above $20 million per year.

The Eagles are in a different position. They're still building their roster, trying to add playmakers. That's why they can easily commit to Hurts this season. After all, he showed last season that he was good enough to be an NFL starting quarterback.

The Eagles believe Hurts can get even better. He is still only 23 years old, and he led the Eagles and all NFL quarterbacks with 784 yards rushing.

Sure, his completion percentage was only 61.3% last season, which ranked 26th among starting NFL quarterbacks.

But that can improve. If not, the Eagles can move on.

"Who knows what the future holds?" Eagles chairman and CEO Jeffrey Lurie said last month at the NFL owners' meetings. "We all have this vision, myself included, that’s an automatic franchise quarterback. It’s almost nonexistent, and when it does exist, you’re very, very lucky to have that."

Lurie used Bills quarterback Josh Allen as an example. He was taken No. 7 overall by the Bills in 2018.

Allen's first two seasons were even worse than Hurts' first two seasons. Allen completed 52.8% and 58.8% of his passes compared with Hurts' 57.1% and 61.3%. Allen's passer ratings those two years were 67.9 and 85.3 compared with Hurts' 77.6 and 87.2.

But in 2020, Allen blossomed. He threw for 4,544 yards, completed 69.2% of his passes, and led Buffalo to the AFC Championship game. Allen, who had similar numbers last season, was rewarded with a six-year deal worth as much as $258 million.

"After year one or year two, is Josh Allen a franchise quarterback?" Lurie said. "Was he even thought to be a franchise quarterback when Buffalo drafted him? I think the answers are clearly no, no and no. He developed into one."

In a way, that explains why Pickett and/or Willis could both be taken in the top 10 next week, even though many draft analysts don't believe any should be.

That, in turn, could bump down a player the Eagles need more, such as a wide receiver, defensive back or defensive lineman.

"It’s less than 50-50 in terms of hitting on guys that will be good quarterbacks," ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said. "And it’s probably like 30-70 on guys who come in and play right away and go on to have success."

The Eagles learned this lesson the hard way with Carson Wentz, and other teams made the same mistake with him.

Wentz was playing at an MVP level in 2017 before tearing his ACL and watched as Nick Foles led the Eagles to the Super Bowl.

Wentz eventually recovered, and in June 2019, the Eagles gave Wentz a second contract for four years worth as much as $128 million, with $108 million guaranteed. At the time, that was the biggest contract given to a quarterback.

In 2020, Wentz regressed, was benched in favor of Hurts for the final 4 1/2 games, and was traded to the Indianapolis Colts. The Eagles took a $34 million dead money hit on their salary cap for Wentz to play last season for the Colts.

The Colts then traded Wentz to Washington after an underwhelming season. In return, Washington took on Wentz's $28 million contract.

But Wentz's contract prevented the Commanders from keeping safety Landon Collins, Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff and defensive lineman Matthew Ioannidis.

The Eagles don't have those issues now that Wentz is off their books, and Hurts is still on his rookie deal.

And the Eagles obviously believe they're better off addressing other positions than quarterback because none are markedly better than Hurts. Willis, for example, is considered to have the highest ceiling in this class. He's a dynamic runner with a stronger arm than Hurts.

But draft analysts, mostly in a consensus, say he's not ready to play right away after spending two seasons at Liberty.

Instead, by sticking with Hurts, the Eagles can still add playmakers in the draft to go along with wide receiver DeVonta Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert and running back Miles Sanders, and thus continue building.

"We're not by any means a finished product," Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said in March. "I know how the quarterbacks played and got their teams to the championship games and then to the Super Bowl.

"We know that that's what we have to do to get ourselves there. I think Jalen is the type of guy that's going to maximize his potential because of who he is as a football player."

And if he doesn't, the Eagles can move on.

Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on Twitter @Mfranknfl.

This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: How Carson Wentz, Josh Allen show why Eagles sticking with Jalen Hurts