Jumping off the deep end and into your office bowl game confidence pool | RYAN PRITT

It seems awfully misleading, using the word "confidence" in a bowl game picking contest.

The process has been mucked up even further in recent years as players have begun to treat bowl games like fourth-period, extra-credit assignments. Add in the already whirling coaching carousel, the transfer portal and the frustratingly intangible, motivation-versus-talent factor and it becomes an exercise of near insanity.

But it's also the best thing to hold us over until March Madness, so let's give it a shot. For those of you unfamiliar, in a bowl confidence pool, one must pick all of the bowl games and then number them, based on how sure he or she is in picking the correct winner. For every game won, the corresponding number serves as the amount of points awarded. Highest total at the end . . . winner, winner, Potato Bowl dinner.

We'll get to that. But, without further ado, here is my Bowl Confidence sheet in ascending order, excluding the national title game:

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1. Arizona Bowl: Ohio vs. Wyoming

Both enter having won three straight bowl games. Wyoming defeated two MAC teams in that stretch and Ohio took care of two Mountain West foes. The Cowboys can’t score (20.8 points per game, ranked 112^th nationally), the Bobcats can’t defend (28.4 points per game allowed, 86^th).  Stationary force, meet sieve-like object . . . OHIO 24, WYOMING 23.  

2. Cure Bowl: Troy vs. UTSA

This has sneaky, next-day, water-cooler-banter barnburner written all over it. Both are conference champions with the Roadrunners claiming the charred ruins of Conference USA and the Trojans topping the gluttonous and rugged Sun Belt. Both are 11-2 and both have won five games by seven points or less. A lack of confidence points correlates with a spike in intrigue . . . UTSA 47, TROY 45, 4OT.

3. Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green vs. New Mexico St.

Here’s a trivia question to stump your friends with: New Mexico State (3-0-1) is one of only two teams undefeated in bowl games (the other is Liberty at 3-0). The Aggies needed a waiver from the NCAA and a late, scrapped-together win over FCS Valparaiso to even become bowl eligible. The Falcons rank outside the top 100 in offense (106^th) and defense (105^th). This may be a good day for family activities . . . BOWLING GREEN 5, NEW MEXICO ST. 2.

4. New Mexico Bowl: BYU vs. SMU

Sonny Dykes' former team recovered nicely as SMU enters having won four of its last five, with the only loss coming to Cotton Bowl-bound Tulane. BYU meanwhile, has won three straight. This is a shootout candidate with the Cougars and Mustangs ranking 93rd and 118th respectively (or disrespectfully) in defense . . . SMU 45, BYU 42.

5. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Jose St. vs. Eastern Michigan

This is the second bowl meeting betwixt these two with the Eagles earning a 30-27 decision in the 1987 California Bowl. But this one in Boise ought to be cold and nasty, far more befitting a team of the MAC than one from sunny California. Look for special teams to be the difference in a game featuring two offenses about as bland as, well, an unbuttered spud . . . EASTERN MICHIGAN 17, SAN JOSE ST. 16.

6. Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas St.

Something tells me Nick Saban’s last-ditch, used-car-salesman routine on ESPN and CBS last week in an effort to sway the committee into putting the Crimson Tide into the playoff, a spiel in which he all but called TCU’s loss to the Wildcats a sin worthy of playoff disqualification, will be shown more than a few times in the Little Apple. The EMAW faithful have been good to me, after picking the team to win the Big 12 in the preseason and I’m not about to leave this bandwagon now . . . KANSAS ST. 30, ALABAMA 27.

7. Hawai'i Bowl: Middle Tennessee St. vs. San Diego St.

It’s almost unfair, isn’t it? A team from arguably the most perfect climate in America, San Diego, getting the winter reprieve to Hawai’i? I don’t know much, but I know San Diego State shouldn't be distracted by sunshine . . . SAN DIEGO ST. 34, MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. 30.

8. ReliaQuest Bowl: Mississippi St. vs. Illinois

A Mike Leach team is 63^rd in total offense? Illinois is second in total defense? Anyone know what to do with this one? Perhaps diving down the Leach rabbit hole on YouTube would be more entertaining . . . MISSISSIPPI ST. 27, ILLINOIS 20.

9. Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs. South Carolina

The Palmetto Bowl trophy rode shotgun with South Carolina coach Shane Beamer as he dropped his kids off at school after the Gamecocks held off rival Clemson. I don’t know what he’d do with a Gator Bowl statue, but I can’t wait to find out . . . SOUTH CAROLINA 24, NOTRE DAME 21.

10. Duke's Mayo Bowl: NC State vs. Maryland

The former ACC foes enter with a dead-even series mark of 33-33-4. Their first matchup in eight seasons will be the rubber match until further notice. I don’t know who will play for the Wolfpack due to a rash of injuries but that didn’t seem to matter in an overtime win at North Carolina. I don’t think it’ll matter here either . . . NC STATE 21, MARYLAND 17

11. Cotton Bowl: USC vs. Tulane

Trojans Heisman finalist Caleb Williams said he is playing in the bowl game. I respect that and applaud him, but can he play both ways? This Tulane team is fun to watch and the Group of Five has fared quite well against P5 competition in bowls, going 5-1 a year ago. This Green Wave is one I’m going to ride . . . TULANE 40, USC 38.

12. Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss

I love this spot for the Red Raiders. Quiet winners of three in a row, Tech is a better team than most realize. With both offenses in the top 23 and both defenses outside the top 65, circle this one as a definite highest-point-total candidate. I’ve got it circled for another reason: Upset potential . . . TEXAS TECH 49, OLE MISS 41.

13. Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl: Fresno St. vs. Washington St.

I’m glad Jimmy Kimmel cares about football. Judging from NFL fans wearing visiting team jerseys at SoFi Stadium these days, precious few others in Los Angeles seem to. Vegas has this one as a near tossup and outside of Jimmy, LA may not know it’s even hosting, but they defend hard in Fresno, California (351 yards per game allowed). They'll party harder after this one . . . FRESNO ST. 19, WASHINGTON ST. 13.

14. Military Bowl: Duke vs. UCF

The Blue Devils, winners of four of their last five, are riding high, while the Knights have formed a conga line toward the transfer portal. UCF's strength has been in the run game, where it ranks fifth in yards (3,069) but Duke is no slouch in stopping the run, having allowed 1,444 yards this season, 24^th best. UCF has an eye on Big 12 play next season. Meanwhile, Duke is playing its best ball and here’s betting these Devils are in the details . . . DUKE 27, UCF 24.

15. Fiesta Bowl (CFP semifinal): TCU vs. Michigan

No, there’s no Alabama, no Ohio State, no Clemson in the Big 12 but there’s also no Vanderbilt, Northwestern or Boston College either. The Horned Frogs were tested week in and week out. They're fearless, proven winners in tight contests and no one seems to give them a chance. Except for me . . . TCU 30, MICHIGAN 27.

16. Citrus Bowl: Purdue vs. LSU

I had this dialed up as an upset special but on Wednesday night, news of Purdue coach Jeff Brohm’s imminent departure for his alma mater Louisville began to break. Will it matter? Maybe not. But just in case it does, I'll take the Tigers, even if it means betting on a coach that did this . . . LSU 35, PURDUE 24.

17. Alamo Bowl: Texas vs. Washington

Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson may not play. Washington quarterback Michael Penix, who happens to lead the country in passing at 362.8 yards per contest, will and will return next season as well. Let’s not overthink this one, geography be damned . . . WASHINGTON 38, TEXAS 31.

18. Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor vs. Air Force

Hi, I’m Ryan. I love long walks on the beach, Mexican food, and triple-option and defensive football. Air Force leads the FBS in total defense (256.4 yards allowed per game) and rushing offense (398.7 per game). Be still, my heart. I covered the Big 12 for three years. I know what a defensive mastermind Baylor coach Dave Aranda is but I just can’t help myself. Air Force by a million . . . AIR FORCE 1,000,007, Baylor 7.  

19. Fenway Bowl: Louisville vs. Cincinnati

So, to recap: Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell is off to the land of cheese to practice his "Jump Around" and take over at Wisconsin. Louisville coach Scott Satterfield is moving 100 or so miles Northeast — and seemingly laterally — to take over the Bearcats, becoming the most famous Satterfield in in the Queen City since Kenny and his headband rained down 3s for Bob Huggins in the early 2000s. This time, a Louisville 3 is the difference, one booted by James Turner, who is an impressive 19 for 21 this season . . . LOUISVILLE 23, CINCINNATI 20.

20. Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse vs. Minnesota

With two physical backs — the Gophers’ Mohamed Ibrahim and the Orange’s Sean Tucker — and two crushing defenses — Minnesota is fifth in yards allowed, Syracuse is 29^th — this will be far from a no-hitter in Yankee Stadium. That brand of football is a home run to me . . . MINNESOTA 21, SYRACUSE 18.

21. Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Liberty

Liberty has been smack in the middle of the coaching headlines with Hugh Freeze jettisoning off for the Plains at Auburn and Coastal's Jamey Chadwell coming in. As potent as the Flames can be, sometimes no news is good news and stability is always a good thing when it comes to a rocket. . . TOLEDO 24, LIBERTY 16.

22. Gasparilla Bowl: Missouri vs. Wake Forest

Something’s been amiss with the Demon Deacons, who lost four out of their final five after a 6-1 start. Quarterback Sam Hartman has already announced this will be his final game with Wake. He'll will likely treat the game as an audition tape — be it for NFL scouts or possible college landing spots — which is a scary proposition for the Tigers. But Missouri is feisty, clawing out a 29-27 win over Arkansas in the season closer just to get to here and Hartman may have a foot out the door already . . . MISSOURI 30, WAKE FOREST 24.

23. Camelia Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo

Want an angle? How about this: Georgia Southern brought in a sixth-year transfer in the offseason, Kyle Vantrease, who finished the regular season third in the nation in passing (325.1 yards per game). His former school? You betcha, Buffalo. I'm in . . . GEORGIA SOUTHERN 34, BUFFALO 27.

24. Liberty Bowl: Kansas vs. Arkansas

The Hogs have lost four times by three points or less, three times by two. Meanwhile, after becoming national darlings and even hosting ESPN’s GameDay during a 5-0 start, injuries and the Big 12 slate took their toll and sent the Jayhawks crashing back to earth over a 1-6 finish. Arkansas is two letters longer than Kansas and it's, fittingly, two points better . . . ARKANSAS 26, KANSAS 24.

25. Frisco Bowl: North Texas vs. Boise State

It’s been 22 years since Boise State whitewashed the Mean Green 59-0 on the blue turf and no doubt, North Texas has seen red ever since. It should be a nice contrast of styles with UNT boasting the country’s 13th-best offense (463.8 yards per game) and Boise riding the nation’s sixth-best defense (281.3). The Mean Green nearly win one for the gipper, in this case, recently fired coach Seth Littrell, but Broncos quarterback Taylen Green, the Mountain West freshman of the year, is even meaner . . . BOISE STATE 35, NORTH TEXAS 30.

26. LendingTree Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Rice

As it turns out, the Golden Eagles and Owls didn’t have to wait long to renew their defunct, annual battle of the birds. The teams met each year as Conference USA foes from 2014-2021 before Southern Miss jettisoned off to the Sun Belt and an all-time series standing of 6-6 makes this one even spicier. The Eagles have Frank Gore’s kid at running back and Rice has a losing record. That's enough for me . . . SOUTHERN MISS 21, RICE 14.

27. Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon St. vs. Florida

Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson isn’t playing but the PAC-12 is 0 for its last 7 in bowl games, and Florida already chomped up the West Coast champs in a 29-26, season-opening conquest over Utah. The Beavers are going to have to show me that anything has changed . . . FLORIDA 34, OREGON ST. 24.

28. First Responder Bowl: Utah St. vs. Memphis

The last time these two met, first responders were riding horseback. Well, not quite, but it has been 45 years since Memphis claimed a win in the seventh and final entry in the series until now. The Tigers lost by a touchdown or less four times this season while the Aggies left no doubt, falling by double figures in each of their six defeats. Maybe close is good enough, this time . . . MEMPHIS 37, UTAH ST. 26.

29. Rose Bowl: Penn St. vs. Utah

If the Utah team that hammered USC 47-24 in the PAC-12 title game had been around all year, the Utes would be playing a few days earlier. Whether that team shows up again or not, I’d say its 50%. Penn State coach James Franklin is 2-20 against top-10 competition and a quick numbers crunch tells me that’s 9%. Math can be fun, kids . . . UTAH 30, PENN ST. 20.

30. Music City Bowl: Kentucky vs. Iowa (the redux no one wanted)

The Wildcats boast the nation’s 107^th best total offense (336.3 yards per game), which is downright explosive compared to Iowa’s laughable, next-to-last output of 255.4 yards per contest. It’s a rematch of a Citrus Bowl nailbiter last year, with UK surviving 20-17. This year, it’ll be the consciousness of anyone watching that's hanging on for dear life . . . KENTUCKY 3, IOWA minus-3

31. New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama

The Jaguars are legit, coming in at 10-2 with a one-point loss at UCLA and a four-point loss at Troy being the only blemishes. Also, USA is in the top 40 nationally in both offense (38^th) and defense (12^th). Riding Austin Reed, the second-leading passer in the FBS at 326.7 yards per game, the Hilltoppers are going to score. And while the Jags have lost both of their previous bowl games, there’s something that just feels right about a school in Mobile, Alabama — which may or may not be the rightful birthplace of American Mardi Gras — breaking through in New Orleans . . . SOUTH ALABAMA 48, WESTERN KENTUCKY 38.

32. Bahamas Bowl: UAB vs. Miami (OH)

The Blazers’ DeWayne McBride leads the nation in rushing at 155.7 yards per game. The Redhawks average 142.6 yards per contest as a team. Alabama-Birmingham sends interim coach Bryant Vincent off in style before putting Trent Dilfer on the sidelines next season and getting him off every podcast I listen to . . . MAGIC CITY 37, MIAMI (OH) 17.

33. Peach Bowl (CFP semifinal): Ohio St. vs. Georgia

This is the best offense Georgia has seen since last year’s championship game against Alabama. Ohio State can win this game. But when the Bulldogs have needed their best, they’ve delivered. In five games against teams currently in the top 25, Georgia has won by a combined score of 219-72. You betting against that? Me either. . . DAWGS 34, BUCKS 21.

34. Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina

Tim Beck guided the NC State offense during a 21-20, season-opening conquest for the Wolfpack over the Pirates. He'll take over at Coastal next year after Jamey Chadwell left to accept the Liberty job. It’s been quite a week, one that would leave anyone scrambling like a Chanticleer with its head cut off. Not good news against an ECU attack ranked in the top 25 nationally (24^th, 459 yards per game) and has one of the best damn entrances in all the land, complete with a Jimi Hendrix classic . . . EAST CAROLINA 41, COASTAL CAROLINA 20.  

35. Independence Bowl: Houston vs. Louisiana Lafayette

Ah, yes, 20th in total offense, 110^th in total defense, this Houston squad is a Dana Holgorsen team all right. But, the Ragin’ Cajuns don’t score much (27 per game) and Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune, fourth in the country in passing at 320.4 yards per game, should be the best player on the field. Even with the game in Shreveport, a de facto home game for ULL, I’ll take the Cougs in a race to 50. May the Red Bull flow like wine . . . HOUSTON 55, LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 37.

36. Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Tennessee

It’s an Orange-on-Orange Orange Bowl and just writing this, it’s difficult not to sing a little R.E.M. Come on everybody, "Collar me, don't collar me . . . I've got my spine, I've got my orange crush." It’s also difficult not to wonder if Dabo Swinney’s loyalty to quarterback DJ Uiagalelei cost the Tigers a trip to the big show. But, with the signal caller now in the transfer portal, Swinney must start Cade Klubnik. No choice is the best choice for Clemson. With the Volunteers’ Hendon Hooker out, the Tigers do the crushing . . . CLEMSON 31, TENNESSEE 20.

37. Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall vs. UConn

Take it from me, a native, if geographical realignment ever happens, West Virginia is planting a Montani Semper Liberi flag in the center of Myrtle Beach. The Thundering Herd are on an uncharacteristic bowl skid of three losses after winning 12 of the prior 13. It’s been a nice year for UConn, which is 6-6 after going 4-32 in its last three football-playing seasons but for this is home away from Huntington for Marshall. . . MARSHALL 28, UCONN 10.

38. Sun Bowl: UCLA vs. Pitt

UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has not said whether or not he'll participate in this one. Neither has running back Zach Charbonnet, the nation's leader in all-purpose yards at 168 per game. If you think any of that matters to me, you don't know Jerry West from John Denver . . . UCLA 44, PITT 0.

39. Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Oklahoma St. vs. Wisconsin

The Cowboys seemingly quit on the season weeks ago, dropping five of its final seven games. Quarterback Spencer Sanders is already in the transfer portal and won’t play in this one. After announcing it had hired Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell, everything is coming up Badgers right now. The direction of these two couldn’t be any more different . . . WISCONSIN 21, OKLAHOMA ST. 9.

40. Holiday Bowl: North Carolina vs. Oregon

The Heels, losers of three in a row, have lost 12 players to the portal this week and offensive coordinator Phil Longo left for Wisconsin. Speaking of implosions, did you see what happened to the Ducks against Oregon State? All fans in attendance should get a free hot dog and a Prozac. The winner should get a depression glass trophy . . .OREGON 33, NORTH CAROLINA 17.

41. Cheez-It Bowl: Florida St. vs. Oklahoma

The ghost of the 2000 Florida State offense, one that died somewhere in Orange Bowl preparation ahead of the 2001 National Championship game against the Sooners, can finally rest easy. The Seminoles turned in one of the more head-scratching performances in recent memory that night, falling 13-2. This FSU team has everything pointed the right way and somewhere, Chris Weinke will be smiling . . . FLORIDA ST. 42, OKLAHOMA 2.

Reach Ryan Pritt at rpritt@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @RPritt. 

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONFIDENCE: Picking all 41 bowl games for your office pool