Just the facts: Florida State football preview, predictions vs. LSU

The Oregon scoop-and-score touchdown after Jameis Winston’s infamous fumble in the 2015 Rose Bowl is the moment the Florida State football program began to collapse.

At least that’s how Kirk Herbstreit sees it.

“It’s almost like that play was symbolic of Florida State going down,” said Herbstreit, a college football analyst for ESPN. “It just seemed like they never quite recovered.”

He might be right.

The Seminoles had been one of the best college football programs in the modern era. Three national championships (1993, 1999, 2013). Fourteen straight 10-win seasons (1987-2000). A record-breaking 36 consecutive seasons with a bowl appearance (1982-2017).

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After its 59-20 loss to Oregon, FSU still captured 10-win seasons in 2015 and 2016. But the Seminoles clearly regressed without Winston. And then they declined in a more noticeable fashion, finishing 2017 with a 7-6 record before posting four straight losing seasons.

“That is a long time for such a proud fan base,” Herbstreit said.

When former FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher left for the same job at Texas A&M in December of 2017, he left the program in a questionable spot. When his successor, Willie Taggart, was fired before the end of the 2019 season, the Seminoles looked to be in shambles.

With a win over Duquesne to open the 2022 season, third-year head coach Mike Norvell (9-13) now has as many victories at FSU as Taggart (9-12) did through one fewer game. There is optimism, though, that the Seminoles are on an upward trajectory. They have won six of their last nine games.

And FSU (1-0) certainly could show the college football world that it is finally headed in the right direction when facing LSU (0-0) at the Superdome in New Orleans at 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday. The neutral-site matchup will be televised nationally on ABC.

“I will say this, I do feel what Mike Norvell inherited was an absolute dumpster fire as far as culture,” Herbstreit said. “And I feel like he’s been able to weed out the guys who don’t want to do things his way. And at least what is remaining are guys who want to go out and play his way and compete within his culture.

“And that alone should help them. And now we will find out – we saw against Duquesne – but to me their first real game will be LSU on Sunday.

“If I had to pick one team that I think can be a sneaky, surprise team that no one is really expecting much from, I think it could be LSU.

“To me, one of the more intriguing games of the entire weekend, from Thursday to Sunday, is that Florida State-LSU game.”

So, how will this game likely unfold? Why would the Seminoles win, and why would the Tigers come out with the victory? Below is a breakdown of those scenarios, along with a score prediction.

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Why FSU will win

There are too many unknowns with this LSU team.

First-year head coach Brian Kelly needed to significantly overhaul a reeling Tiger program that seemingly lacked a functional culture and stability. So LSU, which has 16 new transfers, initially might experience some growing pains.

One of those transfers, former Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels, is the perceived favorite to start against FSU. But has Daniels been consistent enough to inspire much confidence about how he will play, at least in his first game with the Tigers?

The dual-threat Daniels impressed as a true freshman on the Sun Devils in 2019, ranking No. 23 nationally in passing efficiency (149.2). Then he significantly regressed, coming in at No. 31 (145.7) and No. 65 (136.2) in passing efficiency in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, respectively. Daniels posted a lackluster 10-10 TD-INT ratio last season.

LSU also has questions with its offensive line and secondary. The Tiger offensive line projects to feature a true freshman at left tackle in Will Campbell, and two transfers from non-Power Five programs in offensive guards Tre’Mond Shorts (East Tennessee State) and Miles Frazier (Florida International). The outside cornerback positions also will have new starters who are not yet proven.

The Seminoles could benefit from being more of an established team and having much better continuity. Not to mention they already were able to knock off rust against Duquesne last Saturday.

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Why LSU will win

Two of FSU’s worst position groups – offensive line and cornerback – will compete against one of the nation’s best defensive lines and receiving corps.

LSU returned four key defensive linemen – BJ Ojulari, Ali Gaye, Maason Smith and Jaquelin Roy – who have combined for 23 tackles and 43.5 tackles for a loss. Ojulari claimed preseason All-America honors, while Smith landed on the preseason third-team All-SEC list.

New transfer Mekhi Wingo, a freshman All-SEC selection at Missouri last season, also figures to be in the Tiger defensive line rotation.

That group will face a banged up Seminole offensive line that seems to lack a reliable starting five. Across its first eight possessions on offense through the opening three quarters against Duquesne, FSU used 10 offensive linemen and six different combinations.

At receiver, Kayshon Boutte alone makes LSU threatening on the perimeter. Despite playing in just six games last season, Boutte, a projected first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, led the Tigers with 509 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.

But Boutte is not the only impressive receiver for the Tigers. Jack Bech (43 catches, 489 yards, 3 TDs) led LSU in receptions last season, Jaray Jenkins (34 catches, 502 yards, 6 TDs) ranked second in receiving yards and touchdowns, and Malik Nabers (28 catches, 417 yards, 4 TDs) earned freshman All-SEC recognition.

Those Tiger receivers would challenge most defenses. They could dominate a Seminole defense that appears to be the most vulnerable at cornerback. Especially if FSU loses a starter like last week with boundary cornerback Omarion “Duke” Cooper.

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Prediction

FSU enters this game with a better sense of its identity than LSU.

So the Seminoles will score first and build an early lead. Once the Tigers shake off the rust and make some halftime adjustments, though, they will take the lead before pulling away late in the fourth quarter.

LSU's receivers and defensive line ultimately will be too much for FSU to handle.

Final score: LSU 31, FSU 23.

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GAME INFORMATION

Who: FSU vs. LSU

When/where: Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET, Superdome in New Orleans

TV/Radio: ABC/94.9 FM

Live game updates: www.Tallahassee.com; @CarterKarels on Twitter; @Ehsan_Kassim on Twitter; @JimHenryTALLY on Twitter

Reach Carter Karels at ckarels@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter @CarterKarels. You can also follow our coverage on Facebook (NoleSports) and Instagram (tlhnolesports).

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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU football: Could Seminoles win vs. LSU at Superdome in New Orleans?