Just the facts: Florida State football preview, predictions vs. NC State
The stakes are high for Florida State and NC State on Saturday.
The Seminoles (4-1, 2-1 ACC) and the No. 14 Wolfpack (4-1, 0-1) will look to avoid suffering a second straight loss when clashing at 8 p.m. in Carter-Finley Stadium (TV: ACC Network).
Another loss would bury either team toward the bottom of the ACC Atlantic standings. FSU would tumble to fifth, ranking ahead of only Boston College and Louisville. NC State would remain winless in conference play.
A victory, though, would keep either team within striking distance of undefeated Clemson and Syracuse.
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For the Seminoles to win – which would be their first at Carter-Finley Stadium since 2016 – they will have to play cleaner football. FSU committed several costly mistakes in its 31-21 home loss to Wake Forest last Saturday.
The Wolfpack also entered October undefeated after knocking off Eastern Carolina (21-20, Charleston Southern (55-3), Texas Tech (27-14) and UConn (41-10). Then last Saturday, NC State fell on the road to Clemson in 30-20 fashion.
So, how will this game likely unfold? Why would the Seminoles win, and why would the Cardinals come out with the victory? Below is a breakdown of those scenarios, along with a score prediction.
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Why FSU will win
FSU could not have played much worse against Wake Forest.
Yet the Seminoles were still a few plays away from defeating the Demon Deacons, which might be the second-best team in the ACC. So as long as its self-inflicted blunders don’t continue, FSU should have a decent chance to defeat NC State.
Especially if the Seminoles can move the ball well against a Wolfpack defense that ranks No. 9 nationally in opponent passing efficiency (102.36 rating on average), No. 15 against the run (94.4 rushing yards allowed per game) and No. 19 in scoring (15.4 points allowed per game).
With an offense that comes in at No. 24 in rushing (203.8 yards per game) and No. 29 in passing efficiency (161.27 rating per game), FSU has the firepower to exploit even NC State’s stingy defense.
The FSU defense has been questionable at times, coming in at No. 59 in opponent passing efficiency (126.8 rating on average) and No. 78 against the run (150 rushing yards allowed per game). But the Seminoles’ bent-don’t-break style should keep the struggling Wolfpack offense (No. 55 in scoring, No. 84 in passing efficiency and No. 95 in rushing) from having many explosive plays.
Not to mention FSU also could completely bring back two key starters from injury, in left tackle Robert Scott Jr. (lower right leg) and defensive end Jared Verse (left knee).
Scott started practicing this week for the first time since he suffered his injury at Louisville on Sept. 16. Verse also went down at Louisville before returning against Wake Forest in a limited fashion (23 snaps).
Whether Scott will play Saturday remains to be seen. And barring a pregame setback, Verse is expected to receive a bigger workload than last week. The Seminoles having both of those players back would significantly improve their chances of winning Saturday.
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Why NC State will win
FSU has too many questions to answer.
The banged up Seminoles could be in trouble if Scott remains out or plays while noticeably limited. Left tackle Darius Washington and right tackle Jazston Turnetine significantly struggled against Wake Forest.
Even if Verse returns to form, FSU still would badly miss starting defensive tackle Fabien Lovett (lower right leg injury). The Seminoles have allowed two 100-yard rushers in their three games without Lovett.
Then there is embattled kicker Ryan Fitzgerald, who has missed four of his last five field goals. He has been largely unreliable all season, connecting on only four of his nine field goals and missing an extra point against Boston College. Those missed field goals have contributed to FSU ranking No. 111 in red-zone conversion rate (74.1%).
The Wolfpack also have a few reasons to feel confident, beginning with their defense. Quarterback Devin Leary has regressed statistically this season, but he claimed ACC Preseason Player of the Year honors for a reason. Lastly, Carter-Finley Stadium has proven to be a tough environment for the Seminoles.
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Prediction
Like FSU’s games against LSU and Louisville, this one could be decided at the end.
But NC State has the best chance to come out with the win. The Seminoles have more questions coming into this game, while the Wolfpack will be able to lean on their veteran quarterback and stout defense at home.
This game has the feel of a defensive battle, so don't expect a high-scoring affair. Look for this game to hit the under on the 50.5-point betting total.
Final score: NC State 24, FSU 20.
GAME INFORMATION
Who: FSU (4-1, 2-1 ACC) vs. No. 14 NC State (4-1, 0-1)
When/where: Saturday, 8 p.m.; Carter-Finley Stadium
TV/Radio: ACC Network/94.9 FM
Live game updates: www.Tallahassee.com; @CarterKarels on Twitter; @Ehsan_Kassim on Twitter; @JimHenryTALLY on Twitter
Reach Carter Karels at ckarels@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter @CarterKarels. You can also follow our coverage on Facebook (NoleSports) and Instagram (tlhnolesports).
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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU football: Preview, prediction for Seminoles vs. NC State Wolfpack
