Just the facts: Florida State football preview, predictions vs. Louisville
Mike Norvell is still searching for his first win over Louisville as Florida State’s head football coach.
The Seminoles are 16-6 in the all-time series, which has been an annual ACC matchup since 2014. They dropped their first two games under Norvell against the Cardinals, though, falling 48-16 (2020) and 31-23 (2021).
Compared to the last two seasons, FSU (2-0) looks to be in a much better position to defeat Louisville (1-1, 0-1 ACC) when traveling to play in Cardinal Stadium at 7:30 p.m. Friday (ESPN).
BetOnline, a popular gambling site, gives the Seminoles a 2.5-point edge over the Cardinals.
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One more win means FSU would have its first 3-0 start since 2015. And it could help the Seminoles earn a spot in the AP Poll’s rankings for the first time since the 2018 preseason. They received the eighth-most votes (42) among unranked teams in the latest AP Poll.
FSU defeated Duquesne (47-7) at home and LSU (24-23) at the Superdome in New Orleans to start the season. Louisville dropped its season opener at Syracuse, 31-7, before bouncing back with a 20-14 victory at UCF last Friday.
So, how will this game likely unfold? Why would the Seminoles win, and why would the Cardinals come out with the victory?
Below is a breakdown of those scenarios, along with a score prediction.
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Why FSU will win
Louisville likely won’t be able to effectively defend FSU’s ground game without selling out against it.
The Cardinals rank No. 116 and No. 117 nationally in run defense (207.5 yards allowed per game) and yards per carry allowed (5.32), respectively. It’s a small sample size through two games, but they also finished outside the top 75 in run defense in each of the last four seasons.
The Seminoles should take advantage with their three talented running backs in Treshaun Ward, Lawrance Toafili and Trey Benson. Especially when they are running behind what looks to be one of FSU’s best offensive lines in recent years.
That group has helped the Seminoles come in at No. 6, tied with several teams for No. 14, and No. 20 in rushing offense (269 yards per game), sacks allowed per game (0.5) and yards per carry (5.85), respectively.
And if Louisville prioritizes stopping the run, FSU quarterback Jordan Travis likely would make them pay through the air. He has played his best football lately, boasting the seventh-best passing grade (91.3) and eighth-best overall grade (91.1) among FBS quarterbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
It’s also conceivable that the Seminole defense will keep quarterback Malik Cunningham and Co. in check. The Cardinal offense has started slow this season. They rank poorly in a lot of the major statistical categories, including No. 122 in scoring offense (13.5 points per game).
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Why Louisville will win
With a dynamic playmaker like Cunningham, Louisville always has a chance to win games that are expected to be at least somewhat close.
Just look at how he performed against FSU last season. The Seminoles trailed by as much as 31-7 in the second quarter after Cunningham exploded through the air and on the ground. He entered halftime with four total touchdowns (two passing and two rushing) and more than 250 total yards.
Cunningham – who led all quarterbacks in rushing yards (1,031), yards per carry (5.96) and rushing touchdowns (20) last season – might have an advantage against FSU’s defense. The group struggled to slow down LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who tallied 114 rushing yards on 16 carries.
Whether the Seminoles will start the game fast and sharp also remains to be seen. They are coming off a bye week, and it will be their first true road game. FSU can’t afford to be rusty and must be able to handle the heightened pressure and expectations that have come from its hot start to the season.
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Prediction
The Louisville run defense and offense have too many concerns.
Sure, Cunningham could will the Cardinals to a victory. But it seems more likely that the Seminoles will win this game with the matchup advantages they appear to have. Don’t be surprised if FSU wins by double-digits, either.
Look for the Seminoles to build an early lead and lean on their ground game.
Final score: FSU 31, Louisville 21.
GAME INFORMATION
Who: FSU (2-0) at Louisville (1-1, 0-1 ACC)
When/where: Friday, 7:30 p.m.; Cardinal Stadium
TV/Radio: ESPN/94.9 FM
Reach Carter Karels at ckarels@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter @CarterKarels. You can also follow our coverage on Facebook (NoleSports) and Instagram (tlhnolesports).
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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU football: Seminoles looking for first win over Louisville under Norvell
