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The Kansas State football team will try to bounce back from an emotional loss against Texas and stay in the hunt for a Big 12 championship against the Baylor Bears at 2 p.m. Saturday at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Here’s everything you need to know before kickoff ...
Baylor at Kansas State game details
Kickoff: 2 p.m. Saturday
Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium (Manhattan)
Streaming: ESPN+ (subscription required)
Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KFH (1240 AM and 97.5 FM) in Wichita
The line: K-State by 21 with an O/U of 54.5
College football is a crazy sport, but this game should go exactly according to script.
K-State is justifiably a big home favorite — a 21-point favorite — against Baylor.
There aren’t many reasons to expect a close game at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The Wildcats (6-3, 4-2 Big 12) are a much stronger team than the Bears (3-6, 2-4 Big 12) and they will be playing at home, where they have been invincible this season. K-State has played five games in Manhattan, and all five of those scores have been lopsided.
It’s best to look at them one by one for effect.
45-0 over Southeast Missouri State
42-13 over Troy
44-31 over UCF
41-3 over TCU
41-0 over Houston
Average score: 42.6-9.4. Average margin of victory: 33.2. Manhattan is where average teams go to lose by 30.
That means even though there is a large betting line in this game there might still be some value on K-State. The Wildcats, who average five yards per rush attempt, should be able to get back to running the ball against a Bears defense that is allowing five yards per attempt.
If that happens, Baylor has virtually no chance to keep up with K-State.
But it’s not like Dave Aranda’s team is stellar against the pass, either. Baylor is allowing teams to gain 7.9 yards per attempt.
The Bears’ only potential advantage is when they look to throw the ball with quarterback Blake Shapen. Baylor averages 277.2 passing yards per game. He has given K-State fits before and Baylor has won two road games this season. So it’s not like K-State can sleep walk its way to victory here, but it should be fine as long as it prevents Shapen from hitting an abundance of explosive passes.
There is some fear that K-State will suffer an emotional letdown on Saturday and play well below its usual standards. It is a text book “sandwich spot” for the Wildcats as they lost to Texas in overtime last week and play rival Kansas next week.
But K-State has only really had trouble with that kind of stuff when it is coming off a big win or a bye week under Chris Klieman. The Wildcats have won their past seven games immediately after a loss. They haven’t suffered back-to-back defeats since 2021.
I like the Wildcats to win big.
K-State 43, Baylor 13
Last week’s prediction: K-State 24, Texas 23 (Actual: Texas 33, K-State 30)
Season record: 5-4.
Season record against the spread: 4-5.
Season record O/U: 6-3.