Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly wins reelection, as Derek Schmidt concedes governor's race

Gov. Laura Kelly has won reelection in the Kansas governor's race, withstanding what national pundits predicted to be a "red wave" of conservative wins across the country, though it never fully materialized.

"I thank the people of Kansas for the honor to continue serving you and the state we love," Kelly said. "Now, we get back to work."

Kelly declared victory shortly before 11 a.m. Wednesday in an emailed statement that was largely similar to a midnight speech she gave at the Ramada in downtown Topeka before sending supporters home for the night.

The Associated Press called the race in Kelly's favor at around 12:30 p.m., hours after NBC News and CNN. Democratic groups have joined in declaring a Kelly victory.

In a statement released shortly after 1 p.m., Republican Derek Schmidt acknowledged remaining mail and provisional ballots but congratulated Kelly "on her apparent reelection and wish the best for our beloved state during the next four years."

"The election, of course, is not final until every lawful ballot is counted, and we are advised by election officials that thousands remain uncounted including late-arriving mail ballots and provisional ballots," Schmidt said in a statement. "However, it seems unlikely those will be sufficient to close the remaining gap, so absent any unexpected development it appears this race is over."

Schmidt did not address his political future directly but instead thanked his family and running mate, Katie Sawyer, and praised the conversations with everyday Kansans over the course of the race on issues ranging from education policy to taxes.

"I know their desire to solve these and other difficult problems is sincere and lasting — and I will continue to be among those who want to make our state better, despite the gravitational pull of modern politics and mass communication having largely obscured so much of that discussion," he said.

As of 12:30 p.m., Kelly held a 14,100-vote lead over Schmidt in unofficial results with all precincts reporting. There are 29,000 advance mail ballots that have yet to be returned, according to the Kansas Secretary of State Office, with a deadline of Monday afternoon for those ballots to be received by counties. There also is an unknown number of provisional ballots.

"The people of Kansas sent a very clear message at the polls yesterday," Kelly said. "Kansans said we will keep moving forward as a state, full steam ahead — there will be no turning backward."

As she had in 2018 when first elected governor, Kelly campaigned on averting a return to policies of the former Gov. Sam Brownback era. They dubbed her time in office as "getting our state back on track" while trying to paint Schmidt as going "back to Brownback."

"We had strong, healthy disagreements on the issues, but I do believe he cares about this state, and that we stand united in our commitment to Kansas and its future success," Kelly said of Schmidt.

Red wave doesn't materialize in Kansas

Nationally, pundits predicted a “red wave” of conservative wins across the country. Someone, however, forgot to tell Kelly. Such a wave was muted in Kansas, with voters generally opting to stick with the status quo.

Kelly's victory would be historic, marking the first time in at least two decades that a Democrat has won election in the year their party controlled the White House. Kelly was the lone Democrat governor on the ballot in a state former President Donald Trump won two years ago.

And while liberals will be jubilant at Kelly’s apparent victory, Republicans will see that same fact as a resounding miss opportunity in a race some predicted one year ago they might win by a double-digit margin.

During a long and trying campaign, almost assuredly the most expensive in Kansas history, Kelly and Schmidt marked a contrast not just in terms of policy but in how they made their case to voters.

While Schmidt aimed to tie Kelly to President Joe Biden and kept the focus on national and social issues, the governor instead focused on a narrow swath of the work she had done in her first four years in office.

"Kansans voted for strong public schools, for economic growth, for balanced budgets, and for protecting individual rights — including a woman’s right to make her own healthcare decisions," Kelly said. "Perhaps above all, I believe Kansans voted today for civility, for cooperation, for listening to one another, and for a spirit of bi-partisan problem-solving, that’s become all too rare in our politics today."

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'Disciplined' campaign helps power Gov. Laura Kelly to victory

When Kelly announced her intent to seek re-election in 2020, many were pessimistic that she would avoid becoming the first one-term governor since Joan Finney in the mid-1990s.

The Republican Governors’ Association had pledged to make the race a top priority and ultimately poured over $8 million into the race to bolster Schmidt, several times what observers initially expected.

The COVID-19 pandemic was still simmering and with it came the memory of lockdowns, business and church closures and a Kansas Department of Labor stretched thin in paying out unemployment benefits.

Schmidt, meanwhile, was a top recruit and ultimately did not face a primary challenge after former Gov. Jeff Colyer withdrew.

But the type of campaign Kelly would run became clear from her first television ad, which showed her, quite literally, in the middle of a road in Auburn, extolling her moderate virtues.

"I spoke a lot in this campaign about my middle-of-the-road approach, because governing from the middle is important," Kelly said. "Everyone is tired of hyper-partisanship and vitriol in our politics — and everyone’s tired of being at each other’s throats. That’s why those nasty, negative, divisive ads against us backfired."

Not everyone was impressed by the campaign pitch.

"I think Kansans are smarter than to listen to 'Laura Kelly is middle of the road,'" said Mel Adams, of Topeka, at a Monday Republican rally. "If anybody knows anything about middle of the road, that's where roadkill happens. If you're in the middle of the road, you get run over. It's a dumb ad."

The themes of that first advertisement — increased education and transportation funding in the wake of Brownback, a Republican — would shine through time and time again for Kelly, supported by a focus on economic development gains in the state and a bill the governor signed to gradually eliminate the state sales tax on food.

At the same time, left-leaning, outside groups spent freely to tie Schmidt to Brownback, a messaging strategy later embraced by Kelly’s campaign.

While on the surface, Kelly’s situation and that of former Democrat Gov. Kathleen Sebelius seem to largely run parallel to each other.

But speaking with The Capital-Journal after a Saturday rally in Topeka, she said Kelly’s degree of difficulty was far higher, as she aimed to maneuver with a conservative Republican supermajority in the state Legislature.

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“She had far fewer allies and helpers than I had when I was governor,” she said. “So I have been extraordinarily impressed with her ability to actually, you know, get things done.”

While polling long showed the race to be a toss-up, Kelly’s path to victory seemed to grow more viable after the Aug. 2 primary, when voters rejected a measure that would have ended state constitutional protections on abortion.

Still, Kelly largely eschewed any discussion of abortion and instead still kept the focus on her same core issues.

“This is one of the most disciplined campaigns I've ever seen,” Bob Beatty, a professor of political science at Washburn University, said.

Still, while turnout did not match the Aug. 2 primary, enthusiasm, particularly in Johnson County and the Kansas City suburbs showed signs that enough residual energy still existed to push Kelly over the top.

“Now Johnson County has been fickle in the past, it was fickle in 2010,” Christopher Reeves, a former Democratic National Committeeman, said before the election. “But we're in a very different environment since then.”

Was Dennis Pyle a spoiler?

The race in Kansas was considered a top priority for Republicans, though the party lost other high-profile gubernatorial races in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and elsewhere.

Early voting numbers appeared to be more favorable towards Republicans. And Rep. Stephen Owens, R-Hesston, said he believed if the election was held 18 months or a year earlier, that Schmidt would have won due to residual anger over the COVID-19 pandemic.

But memories, he said, could be short, even though he thought the issues posed by the pandemic remained relevant.

“I think it's because it's easier to forget about something that happened two or three years ago, not to have that carry that same weight of relevance as something that just recently happened,” Owens said.

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Schmidt’s campaign largely reflected the broader national political landscape, zeroing in on the economy and crime rates under Biden at a time when Republican candidates across the country were making the exact same arguments in their states.

He appeared on numerous occasions with nationally renowned political figures, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence in an effort to rally conservatives.

And Schmidt launched a particularly notable offensive against Kelly on her decision to veto a ban on transgender athletes in girls’ and women’s sports, as well as misleading allegations that the Kansas Department of Commerce funded drag shows.

The strategy was in part fueled by the presence of independent Dennis Pyle, a conservative state senator from Hiawatha, on the ballot. While Pyle only received about 2% of the vote as of press time, that was likely enough to swing the race to Kelly.

Pyle was boosted in recent days by a Democrat-aligned group in Washington that funded radio ads on his behalf, attacking Schmidt as a moderate.

Sen. John Doll, a moderate Garden City Republican, is used to a third-party campaign — he was independent Greg Orman’s running mate in 2018, perhaps the most high-profile independent in recent Kansas political history.

Doll backed Schmidt this time around — but wondered if his strategy hurt him with the more moderate voters that Kelly was courting.

“He went out and played the right really hard this election to make sure Dennis doesn't gain traction,” he said.

What could a second term for Gov. Laura Kelly look like?

Kelly has largely pledged that her second term will feature more of the same as the first four years.

That includes a likely uphill effort to expand Medicaid, promises to legalize medical marijuana and expand broadband access and proposals to initiate tax relief, particularly for seniors.

But while Kelly was victorious on Tuesday, it remains uncertain what the composition of the state Legislature will look like.

For the third election cycle in a row, legislative Democrats had designs on breaking the Republican supermajority in the chamber and the ultimate composition of the chamber remains unclear.

But with moderate losses in the primary election it is uncertain how effective Kelly’s veto pen will serve as a bulwark against conservative policies, a reality she acknowledged in a pre-election rally in Shawnee.

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"We don't have them anymore," she said of moderate Republicans. "So we have got to have Democrats there because I believe it will be necessary for me to veto some things that come across my desk."

But while a second term for Kelly will likely face new headwinds, Beatty stressed that it was unlikely she would change tactics much in a second term.

Her brand during the campaign was of a bipartisan dealmaker on issues ranging from education funding to taxes and Beatty said it would be important for her to apply that same ethos to potential new economic development projects and legalizing medical marijuana..

“If Kelly wins, that means the voters believed that she was sincerely middle of the road and bipartisan,” Beatty said. “And her approval ratings will plummet if that's not how she governs in her second term.”

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas governor's race 2022: Gov. Laura Kelly notches re-election win