Will Kansas Jayhawks cover the spread vs. Missouri in Saturday’s Border Showdown game?
The No. 2-ranked University of Kansas men’s basketball team plays host to longtime rival Missouri at Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday.
The Jayhawks (8-1) defeated the Kansas City Roos on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Missouri defeated Wichita State on Sunday.
Kansas has a record of 176-95 against the Tigers in the Border Showdown.
Below is a scouting report and prediction for Saturday’s game:
No. 2 Kansas vs. Missouri
When/where: 4:15 p.m. Central Time, Allen Fieldhouse
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 7-2
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 80
Betting line: Kansas is 12.5-point favorite
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Missouri Team Strengths
Making most of foul shots: The Tigers rank No. 28 in free-throw shooting percentage (77.2)
Fire away from deep: Missouri isn’t afraid to shoot 3-pointers, with a 46.7% three-point rate (percent of field-goal attempts taken from 3-point range).
Offensive glass savants: The Tigers do an excellent job of finding quality shots, ranking 56th in effective field goal percentage (53.8).
Missouri Team Weaknesses
Lack of foul-drawers: MU doesn’t draw a lot of fouls, ranking just No. 288 in free throw attempt rate (27.5). In comparison, KU ranks No. 149 overall (34.8%).
Rebounding struggles: Missouri, like KU, struggles on the offensive glass. The Tigers rank No. 262 in offensive rebounding rate (26.4%).
Weak schedule: MU hasn’t faced the most formidable opponents this season. The Tigers’ strength of schedule ranking is No. 308 overall. KU ranks No. 75 in strength of schedule.
Missouri Name to Know
6-foot-3 GS guard Sean East II (No. 55)
+ Leading scorer (16.8 ppg)
+ Elite shooter (61.9% from 3-point range)
+ Four straight games with 15+ points
+ At least one steal in each of last four games
- Not much of a rebounder (2.7 per game)
- Turnover prone (2.3 per game)
Tale of the Tape
Big time triple from @caleb_grill0 #MIZ pic.twitter.com/wF0WPdw0ef
— Mizzou Hoops (@MizzouHoops) December 3, 2023
Caleb Grill has had a down year beyond the arc (29.2%), but that doesn’t mean KU can leave him wide-open.
Mizzou does an excellent job of setting up Grill with open looks. The Tigers run a clever screen wherein his defender is often drawn inside. When the play works as designed, a teammate will pass Grill the ball and he’ll knock down a 3 before the defender can recover.
KU needs to communicate on defense and avoid screens. And Grill’s defender can’t get lured into the paint, as that invariably leaves to good looks from deep.
@tbates_11 #MIZ pic.twitter.com/aOq8jgxwxa
— Mizzou Hoops (@MizzouHoops) December 3, 2023
The Tigers rank middle-of-the-pack in steal percentage (No. 148 overall), but MU’s Tamar Bates does a great job of turning steals into instant offense.
Bates is shooting 64.7% at the rim this season. The Jayhawks will need to get back on defense whenever he’s in transition and form a wall in hopes of keeping him away from the basket.
Game Prediction
This should be a fun one.
For the Jayhawks, keys include limiting the Tigers’ success from deep and protecting the rim in transition.
On the offensive end, Kansas needs to take care of the ball and take it to the rack: The Tigers struggle to defend without fouling.
Bottom line, the Jayhawks should win by double-digits.
Kansas 73, Missouri 60
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-12.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 7-1
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 7-1
KU Player to watch: Dajuan Harris
Harris finished with eight points on 3-for-6 shooting, including 2-for-3 from 3-point range, against the KC Roos on Tuesday.
That was huge because Harris has looked a bit tentative on the offensive end this season. How the Columbia Rock Bridge High product defends MU’s East will help determine the outcome of Saturday’s showdown against his hometown team.
