Will Kansas start the new year in a drought? Here’s what one local forecaster expects

It’s been a dry year in Kansas. The majority of the state has been experiencing drought-like conditions since July 2022, and residents in some parts are still feeling the effects.

Looking at Sedgwick County specifically, the majority of the area is “abnormally dry,” according to data through Dec. 12, the U.S. Drought Monitor reports, while another portion of the county is experiencing a “moderate drought,” a step above the “abnormally dry” distinction.

Wichita residents have been dealing with the drought conditions for some time. Due to “exceptional drought” status back in June, city officials discussed taking actions to conserve water supply, including going into the second phase of the city government’s drought plan.

Andy Kleinsasser, a forecaster for the National Weather Service’s Wichita office, said conditions in the city are looking a lot better recently, however.

“We’ve almost completely wiped the drought out of the Wichita area,” Kleinsasser said. “We’re still looking at some long-term precipitation deficits, but they’re not nearly as bad as they as they were months ago.”

On the other hand, the southeast portion of the state is still seeing very dry conditions, the forecaster noted.

So, will Kansas still be in a drought heading into 2024? What parts of the state are expected to see relief? Here’s what to know about ongoing dry conditions.

Is Kansas still experiencing a drought?

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows the majority of the state experiencing “moderate drought” as of its most recent update Dec. 14. Some stretches of Kansas are seeing “abnormally dry” conditions, however.

In all, 22 counties have some patches in the “severe drought” distinction.

Kleinsasser said looking at the past 365 days, southeast Kansas is still significantly below normal precipitation levels.

“Last December and through now, southeast Kansas, large portions of southeast Kansas, are still 12 to 16 inches below normal,” Kleinsasser said.

While Wichita is almost in the clear, the forecaster said the city is still 4 to 8 inches below normal precipitation totals for the year.

“We still do have those long-term precipitation deficits, which is contributing to that continued drought even though we’ve been getting some beneficial rainfall here the last few months,” Kleinsasser said.

Last year, Wichita ended the year with 30.53 inches of precipitation, which is about 4 inches below average. So far this year, the city has seen 29.07 inches of precipitation, but could still receive more wet weather before the close of 2023.

“We are expecting more precipitation coming in later this week,” Kleinsasser said.

When will Kansas see relief?

While weather patterns can be unpredictable, relief from the drought in parts of Kansas still struggling could come next year, Kleinsasser said. This is due to the El Niño weather pattern.

El Niño occurs when warm water is pushed east toward the west coast of the Americas, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south.

“[El Niño] tends to favor above-normal precipitation, especially as we get into the second half of winter and into spring across a good chunk of Kansas,” Kleinsasser said. “Some have below-normal precipitation, some have above, but when you average them all together, it tends to favor a wetter second half of winter into spring ... hopefully that’s the case this year, and and we can continue to whittle that drought away.”