Kansas State Wildcats vs. Kentucky: NCAA Tournament game time, TV, odds, prediction

THE DETAILS

When: 1:40 p.m. Sunday

Where: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, North Carolina

TV: CBS

Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KKGQ (92.3 FM) in Wichita

Betting line: Kentucky by 2.5

Over/Under: 145

STARTING LINEUPS

About No. 6 Kentucky (22-11):

The Wildcats are coming off a 61-53 victory over Providence in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky won that game thanks to an incredible 25 rebounds from big man Oscar Tshiebwe. But the Wildcats got scoring contributions from all over. Kentucky is big at just about every position. All five of its starters are 6-foot-4 or taller. Kentucky has all kinds of success on the glass and grabs offensive rebounds at an elite level. Nearly 40% of its offensive possessions result in second-chance opportunities.

About No. 3 Kansas State (24-9):

The Wildcats are coming off a 77-65 victory over Montana State in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. K-State pulled away early in the second half of that game and never looked back. Markquis Nowell finished with 17 points and a career-high 14 assists. Keyontae Johnson had 18 points and eight rebounds. Nae’Qwan Tomlin and David N’Guessan both hit double figures in the paint. K-State defends the three-point line at an elite level but struggles with turnovers. Limiting mistakes seems to be the most important part of its games.

Prediction

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: K-State and Kentucky are about to play a NCAA Tournament game for Wildcat supremacy.

These teams are about to face off in the postseason for the third time in the past decade.

Kentucky won the first meeting 56-49 in 2014. K-State won the last meeting 61-58 in the 2018 Sweet 16. Now we get a rubber match.

This one could go either way.

K-State will wear white jerseys as the better seed, but Kentucky is favored by 2 1/2 points. John Calipari’s team will also benefit from a big crowd advantage on Sunday, as Big Blue Nation will fill Greensboro Coliseum with fans.

That could be an important factor given how much K-State has struggled away from home this season. But there will be a few hundred purple-clad fans in attendance. So maybe that angle is overblown. Kentucky benefiting from a rest advantage on a quick turnaround seems more meaningful.

On the court, K-State will need to make Kentucky react to the way it plays rather than the other way around. Jerome Tang’s team defends the three-point line very well. If it can prevent Kentucky from making outside shots and be an aggressor on offense, with Nae’Qwan Tomlin and David N’Guessan making Oscar Tshiebwe defend the perimeter, it will take its chances.

But Kentucky grabs offensive rebounds at a dizzying pace. If Kentucky can pile up a bunch of easy points on second-chance opportunities and Tomlin gets in early foul trouble against Tshiebwe, it could be a long day for K-State.

Kentucky does not force turnovers at a high rate (16.7% of the time) so that is good news for K-State.

Calipari made an interesting comment on Saturday. He said an opposing player tends to do something “crazy” against them whenever Kentucky has lost games this season. Can anyone on K-State’s roster reach a “crazy” level in this game?

Can Markquis Nowell hit a few logo threes? Can Keyontae Johnson flirt with 30 points? Can Tomlin make a run at 20 points.

If the answer is yes, then I think K-State advances to the Sweet 16. If the answer is no, then Kentucky will be moving on.

It’s a tough call, but I’m going to give Kentucky a slight edge here. It boasts a size advantage at every position against K-State, and that could make it difficult for K-State guards to drive into the lane and be productive off the dribble.

There seems to be more paths to victory for Kentucky in this game than K-State, and versatility is king this time of year.

Kentucky 72, K-State 68

Last game prediction: K-State 77, Montana State 64 (Actual: K-State 77, Montana State 65).

Season record: 23-10.

Season record against the spread: 17-16.