Kari Lake is behind in the polls? I'm (so not) stunned

It’s not looking good for Kari Lake, as a new internal poll conducted for Senate Republicans suggests they may be on track to lose in Arizona.

Again, that is.

The poll, taken by the National Republican Senate Committee, shows Lake trailing Democrat Ruben Gallego by four points, with independent Kyrsten Sinema sucking away support from Arizona’s MAGA queen. At best, the race is a statistical tie, if you consider the poll’s margin of error.

But this is not the first poll, or even the second, to show that Lake is in trouble should Sinema run for reelection.

Now, Kari Lake wants independents?

Meanwhile, here in the land of delusion, Lake — the Trump-endorsed candidate who has spent the last two years sneering at RINOs — says independents and “disaffected” Democrats will be the key to her Senate run.

No kidding. She really said that.

“I think we're having a lot of independents, and even some Democrats, who are disaffected and looking at their party recognizing that it doesn’t work,” Lake told the Washington Examiner this week.

Never mind a poll this summer that showed that only 30% of independents like Lake while 51% do not.

In the poll, by Noble Predictive Insights, 51% of Arizona voters surveyed had an unfavorable opinion of the self-proclaimed “mama bear.” Even 29% of Republicans held their nose when her name came up.

I’m guessing that would be the McCain wing of the party, the voters who Lake not only didn’t court during her 2022 run for governor but actively invited to “get the hell out” of one of her final campaign events.

Lake has 2 big problems: 1 is Trump

Lake has two problems that may well cost Republicans the race in what was a reliably red seat until 2018, when Donald Trump first started counseling Arizonans on who they should send to the Senate.

Lake’s No. 1 problem: Trump and their shared passion for pitching conspiracy theories and denying the will of the electorate.

He may be the golden ticket in a Republican primary, but he’s an albatross around the neck come November. Consider his 2018 and 2020 endorsements of Martha McSally and his 2022 endorsement of Blake Masters — not to mention his endorsements of Lake (governor), Abe Hamadeh (attorney general) and Mark Finchem (secretary of state).

Lake and Finchem lose: Yet another election lawsuit

Lake already has the Republican Senate primary wrapped up, yet she continues to tout Trump’s endorsement when she should be demanding that he take it back and butt out.

It doesn’t help that she also attracts endorsements from such far-right visionaries as state Sen. Jake Hoffman, R-Fake Elector, and state Sen. David Farnsworth, the Mesa Republican who has said he believes the devil (literally) led the conspiracy to steal the 2020 election from Trump.

The other problem is her own mouth

Lake’s No. 2 problem: Her own smash mouth.

Lake was an exceptionally ungracious winner after last year’s Republican primary, when she proudly proclaimed to have shoved into the heart of the “McCain machine” after defeating Karrin Taylor Robson. She is also possibly the world’s second sorest loser, having declared that she beat now-Gov. Katie Hobbs in a “landslide” and that Maricopa County’s Republican Recorder Stephen Richer is the criminal who stole her glory.

To have any hope of winning in 2024, she would have to both move on from the conspiracy talk and make amends to the moderate Republicans and independents who for the last three election cycles have sent Democrats to the Senate.

Our joke of an immigration policy could be a boon to Lake given Biden’s bungle on the border and Gallego’s record, if only she could dial down her histrionic cries of “INVASION.”

But she hasn’t. And won’t.

Abortion could be Lake's Achilles heel

Then there is abortion.

Try as she may to now soft pedal her views or just dodge the question, Lake was rooting for the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade last year so that Arizona’s “great” territorial-era law — the one that criminalizes abortion even in cases of rape and incest — could make a comeback.

Sure, try selling that to all those “disaffected” Democrats and independents.

Especially if the Arizona Supreme Court rules that the territorial law is now Arizona law, here in a state where polls show most people believe abortion should be allowed, to a point.

Here in a state where abortion rights may be on the ballot next year.

No wonder Sinema is still polling well

Sinema, by the way, has polled fairly well with both independents and moderate Republicans who crave bipartisan solutions.

Among Democrats, however, she scores just a half a percentage point above Lucifer himself. The party faithful despised Sinema even before she curtsied as she voted no on a bill to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.

Accordingly — to what should be no one’s surprise — the NSRC poll reportedly shows Sinema pulling more votes from Lake than Gallego.

Which will matter not a whit to the MAGA crowd, which would rather purify the party than actually win elections. There’s a reason no traditional Republicans are bothering to run for the Senate.

It’s a given that even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — or as Lake referred to him last year, “the old bat” — and his fellow Republican leaders would be sending truckloads of money to Lake’s campaign if they thought she had a shot at helping Republicans take control of the Senate.

The fact that they haven’t?

Well …

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter at @LaurieRoberts.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Kari Lake is behind in the polls. Who didn't see that coming?