Kari Lake, Blake Masters and Mark Finchem are all surging toward victory. Democrats cheer

As we sail toward the final few days of Arizona’s Republican primary, the wind is up and at the backs of Team Trump.

Kari Lake and Blake Masters have got to be thrilled.

Meanwhile, Katie Hobbs and Mark Kelly have got to be doing backflips.

The tracking poll of likely Republican primary voters by OH Predictive Insights suggested that Lake was not a Lake but a surging wave, gathering force as she breaks toward Tuesday.

Unless something changes, look for Karrin Taylor Robson, for all her $15 million spent on this race, to get a little damp.

(UPDATE: Twelve of the 13 Trump-endorsed candidates cruised to a win and Kari Lake is leading in a race that is still too close to call.)

Trump sweeps Arizona: Will Democrats find a way to blow their good fortune?

What changed? 'The race got nationalized'

What was a 39-31 split in early July is now 51-33, according to the OH Predictive Insights poll, a combination of live callers and text. That resembles several other independent polls released in recent days. (UPDATE: An Emerson College poll released Aug. 1 shows the governor's race to be a dead heat.)

I didn’t believe them. Until now.

(SECOND UPDATE: Or I did. A new Emerson College poll released Aug. 1 shows the governor’s race a dead heat.)

The numbers in all polls also are looking great for Senate candidate Blake Masters. Where he led Jim Lamon 25-18 in OH Predictive Insights’ early July poll, he’s now at 36-21, with 22% of likely Republican primary voters still undecided.

Mark Finchem (secretary of state) and Abe Hamadeh (attorney general) also have pulled ahead, though both races still have a sizable number of undecided voters.

Clearly, Donald Trump still holds Arizona’s Republican Party in the palm of his hand. Or perhaps more accurately, the clench of his fist.

“The race got nationalized,” pollster Mike Noble told me, referring to the governor’s race and what changed in the last few weeks. “People received their ballots and with all the endorsements and the money it made a clear contrast between the powers that be and the ones without.”

Me? I’m thinking Kari Lake can quit worrying about a stolen election.

For now, that is.

If Lake wins, can she win over moderates?

Democrats are facing an uphill battle this year, weighed down, as they are, by historical voting patterns, the economy and President Joe Biden. Literally, their only hope of eking out a win in Arizona lies in the hands of Republican primary voters.

Would they, or wouldn’t they, advance the Trump Team slate to the general election?

It’s pretty clear the answer is yes. Yes, they will.

Another view: Lake can throw a punch, and Hobbs has a glass jaw

The challenge for the hard-right candidates now is this: How do you win over more moderate Republicans and independents – the ones who sent Martha McSally packing (twice) and sent Democrats Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly to the Senate?

There’s a reason longtime Republican political strategists have been rooting for anybody but Lake to win Tuesday’s primary.

“She’s definitely the Republican Party’s best chance to lose,” Republican consultant Tyler Montague told me a few weeks ago.

Democrats are pleased with the results

Lake’s presumed emergence as the GOP nominee gives Katie Hobbs a chance, at least. Polling shows a Lake-Hobbs race is a toss up.

Democratic strategist Chad Campbell says he’s believed all along that the America First candidates would prevail. He’s delighted that it appears he was right.

“It gives the Democrats a very wide opening,” he told me. “These (Trump) candidates are very extreme. They’re way outside of the norms for most Arizonans so I think you’re going to see that play out in the general election.”

Republican consultant Chuck Coughlin, meanwhile, isn’t sold on the polling that shows the race is over, noting that higher quality live polls show the two gubernatorial candidates tied. But he told me Democrats could well run the table in November, should the MAGA candidates win.

“I think its possible ... ,” he said. “I don’t see those candidates winning unaffiliated voters. They’re not winning them in the primary and they’re not going to win them in the general.”

Expect these primary election races tighten some by Tuesday but barring a miracle, Kari Lake and the rest of Team Trump appear poised to have a great night.

And by Wednesday morning, things will be looking up for Democrats.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter at @LaurieRoberts.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Kari Lake is surging toward victory. Democrats cheer