As Kari Lake enters Arizona's Senate race, one question tops all others: Can she win?

There was little subtlety or surprise about Kari Lake officially announcing her U.S. Senate run, and her arrival renews a familiar question for Republicans tired of Democratic wins in Arizona: Can she win?

Lake, a Republican, announced Tuesday she was running for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat, about a year before Arizona voters will begin casting ballots in what could be a rare three-way race that already includes Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.

A small but significant number of Republican defections left Lake’s polarizing campaign just short in her 2022 gubernatorial run. But with Sinema, I-Ariz., potentially vying for the electorate’s middle, Lake’s next candidacy could test whether her hard-right politics can hold enough of Arizona’s large GOP base intact when all that’s needed is a plurality.

“In a three-way race, anything can happen,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “I’ve watched many three-way races over decades. When you have the elements that are present in Arizona, you cannot at least this early make any kind of firm prediction.”

Lake’s candidacy and constituency can’t be overlooked, and the race for the White House only will add another layer of complexity to a race overflowing with it, said Daron Shaw, a campaign strategist for former President George W. Bush who teaches government and campaigns at the University of Texas.

“The 40% that Kari Lake could bring to the table, even in a fairly high-turnout presidential, that’s going to be tough to beat. She’ll mobilize voters,” he said.

“It’s going to be fascinating,” said Thom Reilly, co-director of the Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy at Arizona State University. “If Sinema runs, you have a three-way race that reflects more of the political demographics of the state.”

Once again, Lake commands unusual national attention as she steps into the contest, keeping her on the radar for conservative donors, denying the spotlight to Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who is also running for the Republicans, and raising the stakes for everyone around the race.

Last week Lake, a former TV newscaster, provided a fresh reminder of how she combines media savvy with conservative intensity with a viral videotaped confrontation with Gallego at Phoenix International Sky Harbor Airport.

Lake pointed her finger at Gallego and laid campaign-style attacks at his feet while he sought to defuse a meeting he first sought on social media posts hours earlier with suggestions of potential collaboration.

Lake rejected any notion of comity, sticking with a brand that has national Republicans wary of her chances at the outset, and others skeptical that she will do anything but cater to the GOP base.

Sabato said that’s just not who Lake is or wants to be.

“I don’t think there is a different Kari Lake. She’s one of a kind, and those types don’t change very much from year to year,” he said. “They use inflammatory language because it works for them.”

Constantin Querard, an Arizona-based Republican campaign consultant not working in the Senate race, noted that much of Lake’s heated rhetoric targeted Republicans, too.

“If Kari Lake had done as well with Republican voters as Katie Hobbs did with Democrat voters, Kari Lake would be governor,” he said. “Lake continued to attack Republicans after the primary was over. They never really brought people together like you’re supposed to, like you have to.”

“If you’re trying to get to 40%, you can get almost all the way there with Republican votes. But to do that, Kari Lake has to appeal to all the Republicans, and that means she’s got to quit taking shots at her own party.”

Instead, Lake, who is a prominent surrogate for former President Donald Trump’s campaign, has joined in the chorus hitting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is challenging Trump for the GOP nomination.

Shaw said the presidential race has other effects as well.

“When you have a presidential election, you draw in more of peripheral voters,” he said, calling the spike a voter surge. “The question is, what’s the nature of the surge? Political science basically tells us that these are voters who tend not only to reflect but magnify whatever the favorable short-term forces are in the race. In 1984, they all voted for (Ronald Reagan). In 1996, they all voted for (Bill Clinton).”

“The presidential race is going to drive everything,” Shaw said. “Arizona is top three in terms of the attention it’s going to get, the resources it’s going to get. The digital outreach, the door-to-door, it’s all going to be off the charts.”

All that changes the complexion of who will show up with no clear benefit for any candidate, he said.

Beyond base politics, Arizona’s independent voters are a challenge to peg as well, Reilly said.

“The independents are the wild card here. … The notion that all independents are going to follow Sinema, I think is a faulty premise,” he said. “They move in and out of independent status, many of them are voting for the candidate or the issue for a host of reasons.”

Sabato said Lake’s most limiting quality, her take-no-prisoners style, didn’t help her in 2022 but could in a three-way race next year.

“You have three polarizing figures, though No. 1 is Kari Lake, no question about it. Polarization means that in a two-way race, she would probably have a tough time,” he said. “But in a three-way race, when you’re a polarizer like Lake, you’re guaranteed a high floor, just as you may have a lower-than-50% ceiling.”

Reilly agreed that Arizona’s voter mix makes the race harder to forecast.

“We’re one of the few states that an independent could actually win,” he said. “It’s truly purple. You could have a Republican, a Democrat or an independent win, and you can’t say that for most states.”

Reach the reporter at ronald.hansen@arizonarepublic.com.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: As Kari Lake enters Senate race, one question tops all others