Will Kate Cox's case reframe the political debate surrounding abortion in Texas?

One month after a leaked U.S. Supreme Court draft opinion signaled that the landmark case affirming the rights of people to terminate a pregnancy would be overturned, support for legal abortions in Texas spiked up by 8 percentage points.

The poll by Quinnipiac University was released in June 2022, just as the midterm election cycle was headed toward the final stretch. With nearly six in 10 registered voters in the sample supporting abortion rights in most cases and only about one-third taking the opposing view, the Democrats leading Texas' statewide ballot embraced the issue in their races against their Republican opponents.

All of those Democrats, however, lost badly in November — four months after the high court's ruling triggered Texas' highly restrictive abortion ban. Texas prohibits abortions beginning at fertilization, with exceptions only for cases in which a pregnant patient risks death or “substantial impairment of major bodily function."

But several women in the forefront of the fight for reproductive freedom say the high-profile, and tragic, case of Kate Cox and her inability to obtain a legal abortion in Texas, despite her unborn child being diagnosed with fatal condition known as trisomy 18, could reframe the political narrative around one of the most contentious issues of the past half-century.

"I think ... that people didn't really focus on abortion rights as a center point of why they were voting because they took for granted that we were always going to have access," said former state Sen. Wendy Davis, who in 2013 gained national attention for her 13-hour filibuster of a bill that would have restricted then-legal abortion rights in Texas.

The notoriety Davis gained by stalling passage of the measure propelled her to the Democratic nomination for governor the next year. And protecting the right granted by the 1973 Supreme Court ruling in Roe v. Wade was central to her campaign. But she lost by 20 points to now-Gov. Greg Abbott, who later went on to sign the law that forced Cox to leave the state to terminate her pregnancy.

Davis, now a political adviser to Planned Parenthood Texas Votes, said the Cox case presents the abortion issue in an often overlooked light. For Cox, who lives in Dallas with her husband and two children, hers was a much-wanted pregnancy, and she said in a broadcast interview that she wants "a big family" but that her future fertility could be at risk by carrying the fetus to term.

More: Here's what the Texas Supreme Court's ruling against Kate Cox means for abortions

For many Texans who generally support abortion rights even though they often vote for anti-abortion candidates, Cox's situation is relatable, Davis said.

"I think that in the abstract, maybe people might think, 'Oh, well, that's not something I would ever choose,' or 'that's not something that would impact my daughter,’ ” Davis said. "But Kate and her story help people to understand that sometimes the need for abortion care can find those of us who never thought that we would have to make that decision."

Shaunna Thomas, co-founder of the national women's rights advocacy group UltraViolet, said that although Cox's personal story is compelling, it is not unique when it comes to reproductive freedom.

"There are dangerous health complications that come along with being pregnant for a lot of women every single year," said Thomas, whose organization is based in the Washington area but has representatives in every state. "You can try to moralize your way around whether an abortion is acceptable or not, but the truth is you can't account for all of the possible scenarios in which women are going to need an abortion."

Amy O'Donnell, a policy analyst and communications director for the Texas Alliance for Life, acknowledged that abortion rights activists have skillfully used the Cox case to bring the national spotlight to their cause.

While saying "our hearts go out to the Cox family," O'Donnell said abortion rights organizations are using "a lot of misinformation" about whether a baby can survive trisomy 18.

"It's incredibly important that we educate Texans and people in general, not just on the issue around trisomy 18, and the fact that that's not always fatal, and that every life is valuable and worthy of protection," O'Donnell said. "But also that our laws clearly allow doctors to intervene to save a woman's life or to save her from the risk of impairment, substantial impairment of a major bodily function such as fertility."

More than 95% of babies with trisomy 18 do not make it to birth, according to the Cleveland Clinic. Cox's doctors had advised her that her unborn baby had "virtually no chance of surviving."

Nancy Sims, a political analyst and lecturer at the University of Houston, said that standing between a pregnant woman and her doctor can be the opposite of pro-life.

"The saddest thing is, most people are opposed to abortions because they support life," Sims said. "The fact is in these wanted, complicated pregnancies, they may put the woman in the position of not being able to have more babies. And I think that's what the Cox case is crystallizing for people."

She said that although Texas politicians who favor abortion rights have failed miserably in statewide elections dating back to the 1990s, such candidates have found success in other Republican-leaning and swing states.

Sims noted that Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, where Republican Donald Trump swept up 62% of the presidential vote in 2016 and 2020, embraced the abortion issue when he won reelection in last month's off-year ballot. Similarly in the swing state of Virginia, Republicans were expected take control of the state assembly, but Democratic candidates who vowed to protect abortion rights helped their party win majorities in both houses, she said.

Texas Democrats would be well advised to copy pages from the playbooks from their counterparts in both states, Sims said.

"There's three groups now that will go around and train these candidates to address (abortion and reproductive freedom) issues and make them more important," Sims said.

In the upcoming race for U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent Ted Cruz declined to comment on the Cox case Tuesday and again Wednesday, referring a crew from NBC News to his media relations office. But the network was unable to get a response.

More: Kate Cox 'forced to leave Texas' to obtain abortion after challenging state's ban

Major candidates for the Democratic Senate nomination, however, were eager to weigh in.

"The decision to have an abortion should be made between a woman and her doctor, not politicians and judges," said U.S. Rep. Collin Allred, D-Dallas, who in his statement called Texas' near-total abortion ban "cruel (and) life-threatening."

State Sen. Roland Gutierrez, D-San Antonio, said the Cox case has wide ramifications.

“Kate Cox’s story is in the headlines, but every day there are hundreds of women in Texas who need abortions for reasons that only matter between them and their health care provider," he said in a statement. "Abortion is health care and Ted Cruz and the rest of his Republican busy-bodies have no right to be part of that equation."

Davis, the former state senator and gubernatorial candidate, said that even though the Cox case is framing the current iteration of the abortion debate around the country and especially in Texas, she worries that it will recede into the background and that voters might even forget about it by the next time they head to the polls.

"It can definitely be a galvanizing moment," she said. "One of the things those of us who care about reproductive rights need to keep in mind is that memories fade, even horrific moments like this.

"And it will be incumbent upon all of us to keep the story, the experience of Kate Cox, alive and present in voters' minds. There are going to be more and more stories like this as we continue to live in a state without access to abortion care."

John C. Moritz covers Texas government and politics for the USA Today Network in Austin. Contact him at jmoritz@gannett.com and follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @JohnnieMo.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Why most Texans support abortion rights, but many don't vote that way