‘Keep the faith,’ Carolina Panthers say. But history shows that 0-4 means NFL squalor

The day after the Carolina Panthers fell to 0-4, the doldrums many of the worst Panthers teams never found, head coach Frank Reich offered a message to fans.

“Keep the faith,” Reich began.

He was speaking to season-ticket holders, many of whom had sold their lower bowl seats and made Sunday in Bank of America Stadium a home game in name only. He was speaking to the remaining Panther blue spectators that day, who targeted boos at an offense that was trying, to mixed avail, to establish the run in the fourth quarter.

He was insisting to everyone: Carolina has the pieces to win now.

“I can stand up here and say the Lions were 1-6 last year,” Reich added, referencing the Panthers’ upcoming opponent Sunday. “I can stand up here and say ‘this’ about ‘this quarterback’ in his rookie year. I can give a million examples of turnarounds. But that doesn’t really play. We want to win now. Our fans want to win now. And we’re doing everything we can to win now.

“But I also have experienced enough, and been around enough, and know enough to know we’re on the right track.”

Reich is right that turnarounds abound in professional sports. But history shows that they’re not particularly common.

According to an analysis from BetCarolina.com, only 24 teams have started 0-4 in the past decade of NFL football. None have made the playoffs. The average final win totals for those teams is 4.3. Only one team salvaged a winning record — the 2017 Chargers — and 37.5% of the teams saw their coach fired during or after the season.

The Panthers are 0-4 for the first time since 2010. They ended that season 2-14 and with the first pick in the 2011 draft. (And it’s worth noting, the Panthers won’t have the luxury of a first-round pick in 2024 after trading it in a blockbuster move made this offseason for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft.)

But this Carolina team isn’t the same as the 24 that have suffered similar struggles. The Panthers have led in every game, something no other 0-4 team since 2013 has done. They’re hitting team milestones, too. Bryce Young completed 18 consecutive passes against the Vikings, the most in franchise history. The defense is Top 10 in the league in passing yards allowed and has notched an interception in three consecutive weeks — something that the Panthers haven’t done since 2021.

So considering everything, it’s clear: Contextualizing this start is tricky.

Panthers players and coaches have tried to do so, though.

“I understand that it’s a long season, and we’ve played four games and have 13 left,” receiver DJ Chark said earlier this week.

The deep-threat receiver is returning to Ford Field this week, where he spent a season with a Detroit Lions team that started 1-6 before finishing 9-8, which seemed to pave the way for a good 2023.

“A lot can happen in that time. You just have to get it together,” he added. “And once we figure out what it’s like to win, really what matters is the vision. If you want to make the playoffs, it’s about having a presence in the division. So we get to play Atlanta and New Orleans again. We have to play Tampa twice. And if we can start taking control of those games, then we’ll be in a much better position.”

Many Carolina Panthers have started slow before

Austin Corbett agrees with how long the season is. The veteran right guard, who tore his ACL in the final game in 2022 and made a triumphant return to practice Wednesday, has been in bleak situations before. He first arrived in Los Angeles when the Rams were on a three-game losing streak in 2019.

“And that Super Bowl year, we didn’t win a single game in November,” Corbett said of the 2022 Rams on Wednesday. “We were doing great, and then you don’t win in November, like, this is the prime time of the season. ... Then in December, boom, we turned it on.”

More evidence like this is everywhere. There’s enough, in fact, that it’s an afterthought to the paramount concern: of getting better.

“It’s very easy in this business to be shortsighted, like you said, thinking ‘the sky is falling’ and ‘the world is over,’” defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero told reporters Thursday. “But the reality is that we all have to be obsessed with getting better. And that’s our message to the team. ... We have to play better on defense, too. Part of 0-4 isn’t just the offense. A lot of it is on us, too, so we have to play better, and we have to be obsessed with it.”

The Panthers have a tough test against the best run defense and one of the best run offenses in the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Sunday. They then travel to Miami to take on the red-hot Dolphins before entering their bye Week 7. The rest of their schedule features 12 teams with a 2-2 record or better. The one outlier? The Bears — and even that is a Thursday night game in Chicago.

Brian Burns: Winning means relief

It’s not sensational to say, given all this, that things look bleak. But Reich-coached teams have started slow before. His 2018 Colts team started 1-5 before winning nine of their last 10 games and running into the playoffs. That team is one of the many examples, Reich said, that he can point to that proves the Panthers aren’t in NFL squalor just yet.

But just because it’s possible doesn’t mean it’s inevitable. When asked what a win would do for this Panthers team — which has been closer to notching a win than many realize along this 0-4 start — defensive star pass rusher Brian Burns didn’t hesitate.

“Confidence,” Burns said, adding, “Once you get that first win, it’s a relief. OK now we can start stacking them. But you have to get it first.”

Is it hardest to win the first one?

“I would say so.”