Kelly: What could prevent these Dolphins from reaching the postseason? | Commentary

The Miami Dolphins enter the second half of the 2020 season as one of the NFL’s hottest teams, riding a four-game winning streak.

A victory in Sunday’s home game against the Los Angeles Chargers (2-6) could set Miami (5-3) up as a legitimate contender for an AFC wild card spot.

Considering Miami’s next four opponents are a combined 7-24-1, it is quite possible the Dolphins could push for the AFC East division crown if the wins keep coming, potentially setting up a showdown with the Buffalo Bills (7-2) in the Jan. 3 season finale.

Here are 10 things that could stand in the way of the Dolphins reaching the postseason for the first time since 2016.

1. Roster gets watered down further by injuries and COVID-19

This week the Dolphins face a tremendous challenge playing without two important defensive starters — linebacker Kyle Van Noy and defensive lineman Christian Wilkins — because they are on the COVID-19 reserve list. And Miami’s top two running backs — Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida — and starting receiver Preston Williams are likely sidelined by injuries. Good teams have the depth to survive injuries and absences, so let us see if General Manager Chris Grier has made the roster deeper and the coaches can get the young backups ready to contribute.

2. Tua Tagovailoa’s development stalls

Tagovailoa has every tool he needs to be successful as an NFL quarterback, but defenses will adjust to his game in the coming weeks. Expect teams to take the designed rollout plays going to his left off the menu. Once defensive coordinators have a five-game sample size on a rookie quarterback, they begin to show him new looks and attack him with unique approaches, forcing the young quarterback to do things he’s uncomfortable with. That’s why coordinator Chan Gailey’s offense needs to continuously evolve, helping Tagovailoa play to his strengths and mask his shortcomings.

3. Dolphins start losing the turnover battle

The Dolphins rank fourth in the NFL with a plus-five turnover differential, because this year’s defense has been generating multiple turnovers in many games, and the offense has taken care of the football. Tagovailoa must continue to limit his fumbles and interceptions, taking care of the football each Sunday. And it would be beneficial for the defense to continue setting the table for the offense by delivering great field position and points, if possible.

4. Miami’s rushing attack continues to struggle

The Dolphins are averaging 3.6 yards per carry, last in the NFL heading into Sunday’s game, and it is clear that changes need to be made. The hope is that the offensive line will improve, creating more of a surge at the line of scrimmage, and that some tailback — any tailback — will step forward and jump start the rushing attack. Consider the final eight games as an audition to determine who wants to be part of Miami’s backfield next year, because it is obvious that unit needs to be overhauled.

5. Teams run all over the Dolphins

The Achilles heel of the Dolphins' defense is stopping the run. Only two of Miami’s opponents haven’t rushed for more than 110 yards this season. Only Cincinnati, Houston and Dallas are allowing more rushing yards per attempt than the Dolphins (4.9) this season. But the issue is usually glossed over because the Dolphins have had substantial leads for many games, and those deficits force opponents into a pass-happy approach. Because injuries and COVID-19 have watered down the Dolphins' defensive front, youngsters such as Zach Sieler, Raekwon Davis, Andrew Van Ginkel and Sam Eguavoen must step up and contribute more.

6. Complacency sets in

It is hard to envision a rebuilding team getting complacent after a couple of victories, especially one coached by Brian Flores, who has a linear win-the-day philosophy to attacking the week. However, success sometimes ruins young, impressionable teams, and Miami began the season with the second youngest roster in the NFL. This franchise hasn’t handled success well the past two decades, so this is foreign territory for the organization. Good thing it isn’t foreign to Flores, and a few members of the coaching staff who come from New England.

7. Dolphins struggle on third down

The Dolphins offense has struggled on third downs for the past month, and team’s conversion rate has plummeted. Miami is ranked 26th in the NFL when it comes to converting third downs (38.9 percent), and that must improve if the Dolphins intend to make a playoff push in December. Miami’s defense is the fourth best unit at limiting opponents on third downs (34.4 percent), and they need to continue their stingy ways to remain one of the NFL’s top defenses.

8. Defense’s spotty tackling continues

This Dolphins defense has a knack for making clutch plays in critical situations, but they have missed quite a few opportunities to get defenders down at, or around the line of scrimmage because of missed tackles. Improving the team’s tackling is one of the simple things the Dolphins defensive linemen, linebackers, safeties and cornerbacks can do to turn the volume up even more on defense.

9. A nickel cornerback doesn’t emerge

With Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the boundary, it is open season for whoever is manning the Dolphins' nickel cornerback spot. Nik Needham has handled the nickel role for the majority of the season, contributing 34 tackles and one pass deflection. He’s been decent, but hasn’t taken the second-year jump most anticipated after his impressive rookie campaign in 2019. The Dolphins need Needham to take that next step in his evolution as an NFL player, contributing more impactful plays.

10. Miami’s special teams unit gets watered down

Every phase of Miami’s special teams unit has been executing at a high level. But injuries could water down this unit if core special teamers such as receiver Mack Hollins, the team’s top gunner, and Jakeem Grant, the team’s top returner, are asked to play larger roles on offense, and nobody else picks up the slack. For instance, Christian Wilkins, who is on the COVID-19 reserve list, is a core special teams contributor, and someone must fill in for him on Sunday. Is that replacement ready and prepared to hold the line?

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