Kelly leads generic Republican in Senate reelection bid: poll

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) is leading when matched against a generic Republican candidate in his reelection bid, according to a new poll.

The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse survey, conducted by OH Predictive Insights, found that 42 percent of registered voters would support Kelly if the Senate election were held on the day they answered the poll, while 38 percent said they would support an unnamed Republican candidate. Nineteen percent of those polled said they remain unsure.

Kelly, 57, is running for his first full term in the Senate after winning a special election in 2020 to represent the Grand Canyon State in the upper chamber. The special election was scheduled after Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) died in 2018. Former Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) was appointed to fill McCain's seat following his death, but she was ultimately defeated by Kelly in 2020.

Kelly has quickly risen to become one of the most prolific fundraisers in the Senate - he raked in almost $9 million in the fourth quarter of 2021, bringing his total fundraising haul for his reelection bid to about $27.5 million.

His campaign ended 2021 with upward of $18.5 million in the bank.

Despite Kelly's sizable fundraising, however, the Cook Political Report labels the Arizona Senate race as a "toss-up."

At least six Republicans are running for the GOP nomination to take on Kelly in the general election. Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich appears to have an early lead, but almost half of registered voters say they are still unsure of who they would support in the primary.

The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse poll found that 25 percent of registered voters would likely vote for Brnovich if the GOP primary were held the day they took the poll. Retired Maj. Gen. Michael McGuire, the former head of Arizona's National Guard, followed with 11 percent. The rest of the candidates polled in single digits.

Forty-seven percent of those polled said they remain unsure of who they would support in the GOP primary.

The primary race, however, would likely shake up if Republican Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey announces his candidacy. The two-term governor, who is barred from running for reelection because of term limits, received 35 percent support in the Arizona Public Opinion Pulse survey, followed by Brnovich at 13 percent.

Ducey, however, has said he is not running for Senate.

The poll surveyed 855 registered voters from Jan. 11 to Jan. 13. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.