Ken de la Bastide: Ken de la Bastide column: Hill's poll lead for GOP governor leaves lots of unknowns

Jul. 29—A lot is being made of a poll involving the Republican Party nomination for governor next year.

The online poll conducted by WFYI showed former Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill with a considerable lead to secure the nomination.

Hill received 43% of the support, compared to 22% for Suzanne Crouch, 8% for Eric Doden and 4% for Mike Braun.

Eighteen percent of the respondents wanted someone else to be the nominee.

Does anyone who follows Indiana politics really believe that Hill has a commanding lead for the nomination in 2024?

The problem is that the WFYI poll lasted an entire week, which effectively meant that people could cast votes numerous times, which would skew the results.

There is no way of knowing if the Hill campaign encouraged its specific supporters to vote multiple times.

How many people responded? Did the majority of the responses come from northern Indiana, which is Hill's home base?

Ever since Braun announced that he was not seeking a second term in the U.S. Senate to run for governor, he has been the presumptive front runner.

Braun has shown a willingness to spend heavily from his own money to secure a nomination, as proven in the Senate race.

Crouch, the current lieutenant governor, is considered to be the biggest challenge to Braun securing the nomination.

For weeks she has been announcing endorsements of her candidacy from GOP elected and party leaders.

Hill was stripped of his license to practice law by the Indiana Supreme Court over allegations he groped women in public.

That was critical in his loss to Todd Rokita for the GOP attorney general nomination in 2020. Last year, he lost in the primary for the 2nd Congressional District nomination.

With that recent history, it's hard to believe that Hill would be the leading candidate for governor.

Polls are basically a snapshot of a particular time period.

Years ago, I learned that poll results released by candidates or political party campaigns are suspect.

Key questions include: Who was called? What was the exact wording of the questions?

Unless that information was provided, most news outlets, including The Herald Bulletin, won't use those poll results.

To this point in time, none of the other campaigns have commented on the WFYI poll results.

With the 2024 primary 10 months away, it will be interesting to see if Hill's campaign gains any traction, or if it is simply a flash in the pan.

Follow Ken de la Bastide on Twitter @KendelaBastide, or call 765-640-4863.