Ken Schreiber analyzes the state of college football as the season gets underway

I am thrilled to be back for our seventh season covering the national college football scene. While a late-season column always addresses the "health" of college football, the handwriting for its imminent demise as we know it calls for its immediate attention now.

Once upon a time, conference affiliation was regional and colleges with long histories and traditions were connected at the hip. Today, there are no longer any boundaries. Money and greed have replaced tradition and relationships as the driving forces behind all changes and it will further erode the landscape as we know it.

Here's my analysis, in five parts, of what’s happened and what’s coming.

Expansion helps some, hurts others

With UCLA and USC leaving the PAC 12 for greener pastures in the Big Ten, the Big Ten now extends from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. Does that make any sense?  Geographically, no but financially, yes. The same thing happened a year ago after Oklahoma and Texas announced they were leaving the Big 12 for the SEC.  The Big 12 survived (at least for the time being), but its two brand schools are gone after 2024. It‘s a jungle out there and it’s survival of the fittest.

Is that good for college football? Of course, not. Is it good for the Big 12 or the PAC 12 which also lost its two marquee teams and the Los Angeles market? Of course, not. But is it good for the Trojans and Bruins, two programs that have been members of the PAC 12 for 94 years?  Well, the Big Ten just signed a seven-year, $7-billion contract with various networks that will net each team as much as $100 million per year.  That's about 400% more than the schools made last year.  So financially and selfishly, it's a no-brainer economically.

But the damage caused to its remaining conference members is irreparable. So much for the "alliance" between the Big Ten/Pac 12/ACC. So much for competitive balance.  It’s every team for itself and nobody can be trusted. Universities are big businesses with CFOs, not academia with presidents. The rich get richer and the sport will suffer.

Are the Fighting Irish next, then who?

The next domino to fall is probably Notre Dame. Do the Irish choose a conference or stay independent? Their contract with NBC ends in 2025 and there is talk of maintaining their independent status. The ACC? Their members are supposedly locked in until 2036 because the conference maintains its individual schools' television rights.

Since when has a contract stopped anybody from breaching it to allow for an early release? Just waiting for Clemson, Florida State and Miami to join perhaps Virginia and North Carolina in declaring publicly their desire to leave now. If Oklahoma can turn its back on Oklahoma State, Virginia and North Carolina can do the same to Virginia Tech and NC State. Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt and the rest? Nobody cares.  It will happen; the only question is when.

So where do I see college football‘s future? A 10-team Pac 12 and the newly formed Big 12  either merging to stay relevant or disappearing, leaving three super conferences —an expanded Big Ten (Washington and Oregon), an expanded SEC (Florida State and Clemson for sure) and a consolidated Big 12/Pac 12. The leftovers from the ACC will have a weaker league but be absorbed by the Big East for basketball only, creating the best college basketball league in the country. Yes, I said the Big East. Connecticut was the precursor of things to come. Remember you didn’t just hear it here first; you heard it only here, period!

Transfer rule, NIL and the NCAA

More than 2,000 players transferred this past academic year.  With no rule to sit out a year as in the past, players can leave on a whim. Teams don’t need a coach, they need a general manager. Many are calling it “the Wild West.” I call it insane.

One year in and we are seeing players and recruits go to the highest bidder, thanks to Name, Image and Likeness. It will only get worse before it gets better.  What would have gotten your team on probation or the death penalty in the past (see SMU), now is accepted and encouraged. Players are finally getting paid. Fantastic. But the next time a paid college football player is referred to as a student-athlete, please correct the reference as an oxymoron.

The NCAA was once a powerful organization that regulated all college sports. Now a shade of itself, it is merely a symbolic entity as it relates to college football and I expect it will have no role whatsoever over the sport in the foreseeable future. Expect the College Football Playoff to have greater authority, especially after it negotiates the new playoff after 2026 when the current contract runs out. That’s when the super conferences will dictate how the revenue is distributed and how many teams will qualify. Expect the SEC and Big Ten to have 18-20 teams by then.

Urban Meyer won't go away

Yes, he’s back as an in-studio analyst at Fox. Fired for cause by the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars last year just 13 games into his first season only added to his resumé: The scandal at Ohio State. Suspended three games. Videotaped publicly in compromising situations. Abuse of players allegations. Coaching a plethora of players who were arrested for crimes.

Maybe this just adds to his appeal as a studio commentator. Yeah, right. I believe in second chances but come on!

On the field

There are 11 games on Saturday but only one involving two Power Five teams. Nebraska and Northwestern are playing in Dublin, Ireland.  Full disclosure — the Huskers always have a place in my heart because they have the best fans anywhere and are approaching 400 straight sellouts at Memorial Stadium.  This game is being played in Ireland as a Northwestern home game.  It won’t matter.  The stands will be a sea of red and it will be a home game for the Huskers. Coach Scott Frost completely overhauled the roster via the transfer portal after losing nine games last year, eight by one score or less. Quarterback Adrian Martinez transferred to K-State and has been replaced by Texas-retread Casey Thompson.  With ex-Brown head coach Mark Whipple as their new offensive coordinator, expect some surprises and a Big Red victory.

Follow Ken Schreiber's adventures on TikTok at @livewiththeschreib

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Ken Schreiber's 5 early takes on the 2022 college football season