How Kentucky and Ball State football teams match up — with a game prediction

How the Kentucky Wildcats (7-6, 3-5 SEC in 2022) and the Ball State Cardinals (5-7, 3-5 MAC in 2022) match up at each position — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

▪ A 6-foot-1, 217-pound graduate transfer from North Carolina State, Devin Leary has made 26 collegiate starts. In his prior four seasons of college football, Leary, 23, has thrown for 6,807 yards with 62 touchdowns vs. only 16 interceptions. The issue for the Sicklerville, New Jersey, product has been staying on the field. Leary’s 2020 season ended after four games due to a broken fibula; his 2022 lasted only six games due to a torn pectoral muscle.

▪ Ball State’s Layne Hatcher, 24, has been in college football since 2018, and this season he will be part of his fourth different program. The 6-foot, 210-pound super-senior redshirted in 2018 at Alabama. The native of Little Rock, Arkansas, subsequently transferred to Arkansas State where he played for three seasons, throwing for 7,427 yards with 65 TDs vs. 25 interceptions. Hatcher was the QB last season at Texas State, completing 62.2 percent of his throws for 2,653 yards with 19 TDs vs. 10 picks. Overall, Hatcher has 10,080 career passing yards with 84 touchdowns vs. 35 interceptions.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Running backs

▪ Once you beat ’em, join ’em would describe the path Ray Davis took to Kentucky. A season ago, Davis ran for 126 yards and a touchdown to help Vanderbilt snap a 26-game SEC losing streak with a 24-21 upset of UK. For the season, the 5-10, 216-pound Davis ran for 1,042 yards and five TDs in 2022 — and had over 100 yards rushing vs. four SEC opponents. A transfer from North Carolina State, Demie Sumo-Karngbaye is expected to line up both in the backfield and as a receiver for UK. In eight games at N.C. State in 2022, the 6-foot, 210-pound product of Willingboro, New Jersey, ran for 305 yards and three TDs and caught 12 passes for 148 yards and a score.

▪ Playing last season for Kent State, Ball State’s Marquez Cooper ran for 1,205 yards and 11 TDs. The 5-8, 184-pound redshirt junior came up big last season against eventual national champion Georgia, running for 90 yards and a touchdown in a 39-22 Kent State loss. A 5-11, 221-pound redshirt sophomore, Vaughn Pemberton (133 rushing yards on 33 carries in 2022) will give the Cardinals the option of a bigger back. Former Frederick Douglass High School standout T.J. Horton, a 5-10, 221-pound true freshman, is listed No. 4 on the depth chart.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Wide receivers

▪ If they can stay healthy, Kentucky’s top three wide-outs in 2023 should be terrific. Big-play threat Barion Brown, a 6-1, 174-pound sophomore, caught 50 passes for 628 yards and four TDs last season as a true freshman. A 6-3, 195-pound sophomore, Dane Key caught 37 passes for 519 yards last year and set a UK single-season mark for touchdown receptions by a freshman with six. A 5-11, 194-pound super-senior, slot receiver Tayvion Robinson caught 40 passes for 497 yards and three TDs last season, his first at Kentucky after transferring from Virginia Tech.

▪ Ball State’s Ty Robinson is a transfer from Colorado. The 6-3, 193-pound junior had nine career catches in his two seasons with the Buffaloes for 95 yards and a TD. A junior college transfer, Malcolm Gillie, a 6-2, 196-pound junior, caught 38 passes for 525 yards and five TDs in his two seasons at Ellsworth Community College in Iowa. Qian Magwood, a 5-11, 179-pound redshirt sophomore, played in only two games in 2022 but Ball State Coach Mike Neu says the Hilltop, Ohio, product has “had an unbelievable training camp.”

Advantage: Kentucky.

Tight ends

▪ On what appears to be the deepest position on the UK roster, super senior Brenden Bates, sophomore Josh Kattus, redshirt junior Izayah Cummings and redshirt sophomore Jordan Dingle are all listed as first team on the Cats’ depth chart. “Those are some good players that can line up at different spots,” UK Coach Mark Stoops says.

▪ Ball State was the only team in the FBS in 2022 that had two tight ends catch at least five touchdown passes each. As a redshirt freshman, Brady Hunt was the Cardinals’ second-leading receiver last year with 46 catches for 498 yards and five TDs. A 6-7, 230-pound sophomore, Tanner Koziol caught 35 passes for 353 yards last season with a team-high seven TD receptions.

Advantage: Even.

Offensive line

▪ Kentucky is banking on former Northern Illinois left tackle Marques Cox to be a key block in the rebuilding of “The Big Blue Wall” after the UK offensive front struggled in 2022. “I like the way he handles himself a lot,” Mark Stoops says of Cox. Incumbent starter Jeremy Flax won out over USC transfer Courtland Ford and will begin Saturday’s game at right tackle.

▪ Led by 6-5, 307-pound junior Ethan Crowe, the offensive front is considered a Ball State strength. A native of Bargersville, Indiana, Crowe was chosen by Phil Steele as the preseason First Team All-MAC center. Left tackle Corey Stewart, a 6-6, 322-pound junior, and right tackle Damon Kaylor, a 6-5, 299-pound redshirt senior, are also well-regarded. Former Woodford County standout Tristan Cook, a 6-5, 286-pound true freshman, is listed second string at left guard on the depth chart.

Advantage: Ball State.

Defensive line

▪ After making 40 tackles with 4.5 tackles for loss, five QB hurries, two pass breakups and a forced fumble as a true freshman in 2022, Kentucky tackle Deone Walker figures to draw a lot of attention from opposing blockers in 2023. Asked if he had talked to the 6-6, 348-pound Detroit product about the likelihood of facing double- and triple-teams, Mark Stoops scoffed. “I don’t talk to him about that,” Stoops said, “(I) just let him play.”

▪ A 6-4, 259-pound redshirt junior, end Tavion Woodard led Ball State defensive linemen last season with 35 tackles and also had four sacks and five TFL. Even with a veteran defensive-line core returning, the Cardinals brain trust brought in veteran transfers in 6-4, 265-pound grad student Mikhari Sibblis (36 career starts at Lehigh) and 6-4, 285-pound redshirt senior James Makszin (38 career games at Rhode Island).

Advantage: Kentucky.

Linebackers

▪ After an offseason dedicated to the weight room, Kentucky redshirt senior OLB/rush end J.J. Weaver says he has added some 15 pounds above his listed weight of 244. If the 6-5 product of Moore High School could, say, triple his sack total (three) from a season ago, it would have a huge impact. WLB Trevin Wallace, a 6-2, 241-pound junior from Jesup, Georgia, has star potential.

▪ Ball State’s Clayton Coll and Cole Pearce are two of the better linebackers in the MAC. A 6-3, 235-pound product of Franklin, Indiana, Coll had a team-high 110 tackles in 2022 and added seven TFL and four pass breakups. A former walk-on, the 6-1, 222-pound Pearce specializes in disruption: The Mason, Ohio, product had 85 tackles and team-high totals of five sacks and 14 TFL last season.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Defensive backs

▪ Kentucky will break in a pair of new starting cornerbacks. A 6-foot, 187-pound junior from Mauldin, South Carolina, Andru Phillips appeared in all 13 UK games a season ago and had 31 tackles and broke up five passes. Maxwell Hairston, a 6-1, 181-pound redshirt sophomore from West Bloomfield, Michigan, held off Cincinnati transfer JQ Hardaway for a starting corner position.

▪ Ball State safety Jordan Riley is the only returning, full-time secondary starter for the Cardinals — and he is a good one. The 6-1, 195-pound junior was the only player in the MAC in 2022 with more than 70 tackles (95) and 10 passes defended (12). Cornerback Tyler “Red” Potts started three games in 2022 and had 26 tackles and five pass breakups.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Special teams

▪ After a disastrous season in the UK kicking game in 2022, Mark Stoops brought in a new special teams coach in Jay Boulware who has shaken things up. Three newcomers have emerged as starters for UK: Place-kicker Alex Raynor, who made 18 of 20 field goals and 49 of 50 PATs last season at Georgia Southern; long-snapper, Ronald Gaines, a transfer from Temple; and short snapper Walker Himebauch, a freshman from Colorado Springs, Colorado.

▪ Ball State’s place-kicking will be handled by a freshman, Jackson Courville. The Cardinals punter, Lucas Borrow, is a veteran, however. The Australian averaged 41.4 yards on 66 kicks in 2022. A 5-10, 185-pound junior, Borrow had nine punts in excess of 50 yards last season and stopped 22 kicks inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.

Advantage: Even.

Prediction

Kentucky 45, Ball State 16.