The Kentucky Derby: Asmussen's time might finally be here

May 6—The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby will have a full, 20-horse field on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

But we know better. It's usually a handful of horses that are truly championship timber.

Well, I'll break it down even more. I believe there are two horse especially built to win the big one.

Zandon, the Blue Grass Stakes winner, and Epicenter, the Louisiana Derby winner, are the two colts that have separated themselves from their rivals over the past few weeks.

Both horses are coming into the Derby fresh and working extremely well. and both horses have drawn favorable post position as well.

Epicenter, who is always forwardly placed, will have to leave alertly from an inside draw. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, said he'd have "felt better in the middle," but pointed out that any post can cause problems depending not only on how a horse breaks, but the behavior of those in adjacent stalls.

"I would be very surprised if (Epicenter) wasn't in the first flight, off of his ability and where he's been in all of his previous races," said Asmussen. A Hall of Famer and North America's all-time winningest trainer, Asmussen is 0-for-23 in the Derby.

After coming close previously, with four horses hitting the board, his representative this year, Winchell Thoroughbreds' Epicenter, is one of his best chances. The winner of the Louisiana Derby, Epicenter has Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Joel Rosario aboard.

In the middle of the field is Jeff Drown's "Zandon," the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner and the slight favorite over 7-2 Epicenter on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia's morning line.

Zandon, an Upstart colt, has impressed observers with his training in Kentucky, first at Keeneland and later at Churchill Downs. He wrapped up his pre-Derby breezes with a five-furlong drill in 1:00 2/5 April 29 beneath the Twin Spires that Zandon's trainer Chad Brown called one of the best works he has witnessed from one of his horses in his 15 years of training.

"I don't think anybody is questioning if Zandon can get a mile and a quarter," said Brown. "He might not win but it's not going to be because he can't run a mile and a quarter."

"It's a great position to be in, but at the end of the day, if you don't win, no one really remembers who's favored. But I feel lucky to have the favorite. I think it's a close call between the two horses. Who knows by the time they actually open the gate who will be favored."

Epicenter has a high cruising speed running style. He'll most likely be on or close to the lead, where Zandon has a tendency to break slow. As he did in the Bluegrass, Zandon will certainly have to work out a trip under jockey Flavien Prat and will be running late. This is a classic race debate, do you prefer the speedster or do you want the late closer?

Absent from the 2022 Derby is six-time winner Bob Baffert, the winningest active trainer in Kentucky Derby history and a two-time Triple Crown winner. Baffert is serving a 90-day suspension issued by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. His trainee, Zedan Racing Stables' Medina Spirit, tested positive for the corticosteroid betamethasone after crossing the wire first in last year's Derby. Kentucky stewards fined Baffert $7,500 and disqualified Medina Spirit.

Baffert is also currently barred from the 2023 Derby with Churchill Downs Inc. issuing a private-property suspension of the trainer from racing at its tracks through the middle of next year. While Baffert will not be at Churchill Downs Saturday, two horses trained earlier this year by him will be — Taiba and Santa Anita Derby runner-up Messier (post 6). Both are now trained by Tim Yakteen, a former Baffert assistant who launched his training career in 2004. Despite Taiba's recent Santa Anita Derby win, I believe he is a cut below my two top choices.

The 20 horses in recent years have been loaded in a single gate, replacing a system where a main gate of 14 stalls, and an auxiliary gate of an additional six stalls, was used. The width of the old configuration often made it challenging for horses inside, something trainer Todd Pletcher referenced with his Mo Donegal landing the rail with Irad Ortiz Jr.

"If you break and you run straight you're okay," Pletcher said. "You'd run into the rail if you went straight with the old gate system."

Mo Donegal broke from the inside and came running late to win the Wood Memorial in his last start.

"He's the type of horse that could potentially benefit from an inside draw," Pletcher said. "He took the kickback in the Wood. It didn't faze him."

Pletcher will also saddle Charge It, the Florida Derby runner up when his inexperience cost him. He has come back to work well, indicating he'll improve off that effort. Distance should not be a factor for him.