Will Kentucky Derby attendance return to normal with no more COVID-19 restrictions?
Attendance for the past two Kentucky Derbys will forever include asterisks because of the COVID-19 pandemic, but those closest to the event are predicting the return of a large crowd this year.
Veteran trainer D. Wayne Lukas is confident fans are returning to the sport, pointing to the April 2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park that featured an estimated record crowd of 60,000 fans.
“The infield was packed,” Lukas said. “That’s a lot of people coming back to the game. I think we’re fine.”
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A Churchill Downs spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment, but it appears the track is preparing for the May 7 Kentucky Derby as it did pre-COVID. No masks are required in keeping with federal and state guidance, and there are no limits on crowd size.
In a March presentation to investors, Churchill Downs based projections on the possibility of 170,000 fans – approximately 110,000 fans without a reserved seat (the majority of those in the infield) and approximately 60,000 with a reserved seat. “Demand for premium tickets continues to exceed supply,” the report said.
In a conference call with investors Thursday, Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen said, “Based on advance reserve-ticket sales, we expect to deliver record Derby results.”
“It is really great to see the Derby festivities and energy return to its traditional frenzy," Carstanjen said. "The energy and excitement is back.”
Attendance peaked in 2015 with a record 170,513 fans and declined a bit over the next four years:
167,227 in 2016
158,070 in 2017
157,813 in 2018
150,729 in 2019
It’s worth noting 2015 was the last year of those five in which it didn’t rain on Derby Day, with at least a trace of precipitation recorded each year from 2016-19.
When the pandemic hit in early 2020, Churchill Downs postponed the Kentucky Derby to Sept. 5. While limited horse connections and media were allowed to attend, the official attendance is listed as 0.
Last year, the Kentucky Derby returned to the first Saturday in May but Churchill limited ticket sales because of the pandemic. Attendance was announced at 51,838.
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According to one broker, average ticket prices for this year’s Kentucky Derby are skyrocketing. Jenna McKernan, manager of public relations and communications for SeatGeek.com, said average prices for this year are $742, compared with $433 in 2019.
“Since the return of live events, we have seen a lot of pent-up demand,” McKernan said. “Fans are looking forward to getting back out there to see their favorite shows and events, including the Kentucky Derby.”
Trainer Kenny McPeek said he’s been encouraged by crowds at Keeneland this month and expects huge crowds to return to the Kentucky Derby.
“It will all come back,” McPeek said. “People are excited to get out, and it’s a big event. People seem mostly back to normal, and you hope it stays that way.”
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Will big crowds return to Kentucky Derby with no COVID restrictions?
