Which Kentucky Derby post positions produce the biggest winners and losers in the race?

The biggest moment of Kentucky Derby week came and went on Monday afternoon.

The post-position draw at Churchill Downs in Louisville provided clarity about the 20-horse Derby field, and most importantly, where each horse will begin the 149th edition of the race.

The full results of the post-position draw can be found on Kentucky.com, clearing the way for the final days of Derby analysis.

While each horse and each Derby is different, there is historical precedent for which post positions are the best ones to be drawn, dating back to the first use of a starting gate in 1930.

Before the starting gate, horses were dispatched by the use of ropes, ribbon or wooden barriers.

Below is a comprehensive look at the results of horses from each Kentucky Derby post position since the starting gate was adopted in 1930.

Post-position results in the Kentucky Derby (since 1930)

Post position No. 1: 8 wins, 5 seconds, 5 thirds from 93 starts.

Last winner? Ferdinand (1986).

Last top three? Lookin At Lee (second, 2017).

This year’s No. 1: Hit Show (30-1 morning-line odds).

Post position No. 2: 7 wins, 5 seconds, 13 thirds from 93 starts.

Last winner? Affirmed (1978).

Last top three? Revolutionary (third, 2013).

This year’s No. 2: Verifying (15-1).

Post position No. 3: 5 wins, 7 seconds, 8 thirds from 93 starts.

Last winner? Real Quiet (1998).

Last top three? Epicenter (second, 2022).

This year’s No. 3: Two Phil’s (12-1).

Post position No. 4: 5 wins, 6 seconds, 4 thirds from 93 starts.

Last winner? Super Saver (2010).

Last top three? Danza (third, 2014).

This year’s No. 4: Confidence Game (20-1).

Post position No. 5: 10 wins, 8 seconds, 4 thirds from 93 starts.

Last winner? Always Dreaming (2017).

Last top three? Audible (third, 2018).

This year’s No. 5: Tapit Trice (5-1).

Post position No. 6: 2 wins, 8 seconds and 3 thirds from 93 starts.

Last winner? Sea Hero (1993).

Last top three? Good Magic (second, 2018).

This year’s No. 6: Kingsbarns (12-1).

Post position No. 7: 8 wins, 6 seconds and 6 thirds from 92 starts.

Last winner? Mandaloun (2021).

Last top three? Mandaloun.

This year’s No. 7: Reincarnate (50-1).

Post position No. 8: 8 wins, 5 seconds and 5 thirds from 92 starts.

Last winner? Mine That Bird (2009).

Last top three? Tacitus (third, 2019).

This year’s No. 8: Mage (15-1).

Post position No. 9: 4 wins, 6 seconds and 8 thirds from 89 starts.

Last winner? Riva Ridge (1972).

Last top three? Hot Rod Charlie (second, 2021).

This year’s No. 9: Skinner (20-1).

Post position No. 10: 9 wins, 6 seconds and 10 thirds from 86 starts.

Last winner? Giacomo (2005).

Last top three? Zandon (third, 2022).

This year’s No. 10: Practical Move (10-1).

Post position No. 11: 2 wins, 6 seconds and 4 thirds from 82 starts.

Last winner? Winning Colors (1988).

Last top three? Code of Honor (second, 2019).

This year’s No. 11: Disarm (30-1).

Post position No. 12: 3 wins, 3 seconds and 3 thirds from 78 starts.

Last winner? Canonero II (1971).

Last top three? Afleet Alex (third, 2005).

This year’s No. 12: Jace’s Road (50-1).

Post position No. 13: 5 wins, 5 seconds and 7 thirds from 76 starts.

Last winner? Nyquist (2016).

Last top three? Nyquist.

This year’s No. 13: Sun Thunder (50-1).

Post position No. 14: 2 wins, 6 seconds and 6 thirds from 66 starts.

Last winner? Carry Back (1961).

Last top three? Essential Quality (third, 2021).

This year’s No. 14: Angel of Empire (8-1).

Post position No. 15: 6 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third from 61 starts.

Last winner? Authentic (2020).

Last top three? Authentic.

This year’s No. 15: Forte (3-1). Forte is the morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

Post position No. 16: 4 wins, 3 seconds and 3 thirds from 50 starts.

Last winner? Animal Kingdom (2011).

Last top three? Commanding Curve (second, 2014).

This year’s No. 16: Raise Cain (50-1).

Post position No. 17: 0 wins, 1 second and 2 thirds from 43 starts.

Last winner? None.

Last top three? Forty Niner (second, 1988).

This year’s No. 17: Derma Sotogake (10-1).

Post position No. 18: 2 wins, 4 seconds and 0 thirds from 35 starts.

Last winner? Country House (2019).

Last top three? Country House.

This year’s No. 18: Rocket Can (30-1).

Post position No. 19: 1 win, 1 second and 0 thirds from 30 starts.

Last winner? I’ll Have Another (2012).

Last top three? I’ll Have Another.

This year’s No. 19: Lord Miles (30-1).

Post position No. 20: 2 wins, 0 seconds and 1 third from 18 starts.

Last winner? Rich Strike (2022).

Last top three? Rich Strike.

This year’s No. 20: Continuar (50-1).

Also-eligibles

There are three also-eligibles for the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

▪ 21 - Cyclone Mischief (30-1)

▪ 22 - Mandarin Hero (20-1)

▪ 23 - King Russell (50-1)

Notes: The Derby field now has a maximum of 20 horses, but there have been four combined starts from the No. 21, No. 22 and No. 23 post positions. None of those horses finished in the money.

Starting with the 2020 race, Churchill Downs began using a custom-made 20-horse starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. The 65-foot gate replaced the practice of using two gates to accommodate all the Derby horses.

This new gate eliminates a wide gap between post position No. 14 in the main gate and post position No. 15 in the auxiliary gate, and also helps mitigate the disadvantage for horses drawn near the rail.

What does this data mean?

▪ The post position with the most Kentucky Derby winners since 1930 is post No. 5 with 10 winners. It’s the only post position with double-digit race winners since 1930.

With 10 winners from 93 starters, the win percentage from post No. 5 is 10.8%.

The No. 5 post for the 2023 Derby is held by Tapit Trice, who had morning-line odds of 5-1.

▪ The post position with the highest Kentucky Derby winning percentage since 1930 is post No. 20, although that figure is skewed by a small number of starters compared to other post positions.

Out of 18 total starters, two horses have won the Kentucky Derby from post No. 20: Big Brown in 2008 and Rich Strike last year.

This means that horses from post No. 20 have an 11.1% winning percentage in the Derby.

The No. 20 post for the 2023 Derby is held by Continuar, who had morning-line odds of 50-1.

▪ The post position with the highest percentage of top-three finishes in the Kentucky Derby since 1930 is post No. 10, which has had 25 horses finish in the money from 86 starters.

This means 29.1% of Kentucky Derby horses since 1930 who have started from post No. 10 have finished in the money.

This trend continued last year as well, when Zandon, the morning-line favorite, finished third.

The No. 10 post for the 2022 Derby is held by Practical Move, who had morning-line odds of 10-1.

▪ The only post position to be used in the 2022 race without a past Derby winner is the No. 17 post, which will be occupied by Derma Sotogake, who had morning-line odds of 10-1.

Starters from post No. 17 are 0-for-43 when it comes to winning the Derby, and only three starters from that post have ever finished in the money.

You have to go all the way back to the 2005 Kentucky Derby to find the last time a horse from post No. 17 (Don’t Get Mad) finished in the top five.