Kentucky Derby predictions: Plenty of experts don’t think Essential Quality will win
The Herald-Leader asked several horse racing experts to handicap Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
Blue Grass Stakes winner Essential Quality is the 2-1 morning-line favorite, with Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World (5-1), Florida Derby winner Known Agenda (6-1) and Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie (8-1) just behind him in the early odds.
Here are our experts’ predictions:
John Clay
Herald-Leader
Win: Essential Quality
Place: Rock Your World
Show: Known Agenda
Comment: Essential Quality is the best in this field, and he’ll prove it Saturday.
Mark Story
Herald-Leader
Win: King Fury
Place: Mandaloun
Show: Essential Quality
Comment: It goes against the prevailing Derby trends of the “points system era,” but this just feels like a long shot kind of year.
Ben Roberts
Herald-Leader
Win: Rock Your World
Place: Essential Quality
Show: Hot Rod Charlie
Comment: Trying to beat the champ, and Rock Your World has shown the most potential star power in this 3-year-old group so far.
NEW: Handicapping the 2021 Kentucky Derby — A closer look at every contender in the 20-horse field, with some bets to consider and some long shots to include https://t.co/jDEIfVfRsp
— Ben Roberts (@BenRobertsHL) April 29, 2021
Frank Angst
BloodHorse
Win: Essential Quality
Place: Soup and Sandwich
Show: Hot Rod Charlie
Comment: Yes, crazy things can happen in the Kentucky Derby but morning-line favorite Essential Quality not only has won all five of his starts, he has gained a lot of experience in those races, successfully handling challenges like different pace scenarios and an off track.
Rick Bozich
WDRB
Win: Rock Your World
Place: Hot Rod Charlie
Show: Highly Motivated
Comment: My pick was Known Agenda; then I watched the post-position draw.
John Cherwa
Los Angeles Times
Win: Rock Your World
Place: Essential Quality
Show: Known Agenda
Comment: Rock’s performance in the Santa Anita Derby was the most dominating of all the major preps, and picking up Joel Rosario makes him even better.
Joe Drape
New York Times
Win: King Fury
Place: Mandaloun
Show: Essential Quality
Comment: King Fury won here as a 2-year-old and looked terrific winning the Lexington Stakes for an underrated trainer and jockey.
Bill Finley
National turf writer
Win: Highly Motivated
Place: Essential Quality
Show: Hot Rod Charlie
Comment: Highly Motivated has shown a lot so far, and it looks like the best is yet to come.
Jason Frakes
Courier Journal
Win: Essential Quality
Place: Hot Rod Charlie
Show: Rock Your World
Comment: Nobody likes picking the favorite, but let’s not make this harder than it is. Essential Quality is the best horse, and the time is now for Louisville trainer Brad Cox.
Neil Greenberg
Washington Post
Win: Highly Motivated
Place: Hot Rod Charlie
Show: Essential Quality
Comment: Essential Quality is a deserving favorite but I like the value in Highly Motivated. He’s shown he has the speed to win, and his pedigree says he will have the stamina for the classic distance.
Steve Haskin
National turf writer
Win: Dynamic One
Place: Known Agenda
Show: Rock Your World
Comment: Although Rock Your World has been my No. 1-ranked horse and Known Agenda a close No. 2, I wrote back in January that Dynamic One was my hidden Derby sleeper when he was still a maiden, so I am going with him at a big price.
Melissa Hoppert
New York Times
Win: Known Agenda
Place: Essential Quality
Show: Midnight Bourbon
Comment: Known Agenda has won two straight races by a combined 13 ¾ lengths since adding blinkers, and he’ll have the No. 1 jockey in North America on his back. I’ll take my chances on an upset.
Byron King
BloodHorse
Win: Hot Rod Charlie
Place: Essential Quality
Show: Rock Your World
Comment: Value-based selection Hot Rod Charlie won the Louisiana Derby in his final Kentucky prep and ran competitively against Derby favorite Essential Quality last fall at Keeneland.
Tim Layden
NBC Sports
Win: Rock Your World
Place: Essential Quality
Show: Medina Spirit
Comment: I’m a sucker for brilliance over consistency. Rock Your World’s Santa Anita Derby was the best of any prep race, and not just because it produced the only triple-digit Beyer. Might just wire the Derby.
Tom Leach
Keeneland
Win: Essential Quality
Place: Rock Your World
Show: Keepmeinmind
Comment: It’s a tossup for me on the top two and I lean to Essential Quality for being more battle-tested. Keepmeinmind is the late runner to blow up the trifecta/super.
Marty McGee
Daily Racing Form
Win: Known Agenda
Place: King Fury
Show: Hot Rod Charlie
Comment: Todd Pletcher is a lock to be named a first-ballot Hall of Famer next week, so a third Derby victory a few days beforehand would be quite the lead-in. Nice work if you can get it.
Jay Privman
Daily Racing Form
Win: Hot Rod Charlie
Place: Medina Spirit
Show: Rock Your World
Comment: Believe the California-based 3-year-olds are the best this year, and Hot Rod Charlie has proven he can ship and run well.
Ray Paulick
The Paulick Report
Win: Highly Motivated
Place: Essential Quality
Show: Medina Spirit
Comment: In his first try around two turns, Highly Motivated nearly upset the champ, Essential Quality, in the Blue Grass. He figures to improve enough off that effort to give Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano and four-time Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown their first Kentucky Derby victories.
Jennie Rees
HBPA communications
Win: Essential Quality
Place: Known Agenda
Show: Midnight Bourbon
Comment: Sometimes you just have to go with what’s in front of you: Essential Quality checks all the boxes, including versatility. But I’ve also been impressed watching Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie train.
Kenny Rice
NBC Sports
Win: Essential Quality
Place: Rock Your World
Show: Hot Rod Charlie
Comment: Essential Quality remains perfect as Brad Cox becomes first Louisville born trainer to win the roses.
Nicole Russo
Daily Racing Form
Win: Essential Quality
Place: Rock Your World
Show: Mandaloun
Comment: No one has impressed me more in Kentucky Derby training than these three; they all seem to be thriving. Essential Quality is a favorite with few vulnerabilities, but this is a wide-open race.
Matt Stahl
Horse Racing Nation
Win: Essential Quality
Place: Midnight Bourbon
Show: O Besos
Comment: Essential Quality is a worthy favorite and managed to not draw the rail, ending up in a pretty good spot. It’s wide open but he has to be at the top of a lot of tickets.
Tim Sullivan
Courier Journal
Win: Rock Your World
Place: Essential Quality
Show: Super Stock
Comment: Moving from the turf to the dirt, Rock Your World dominated the Santa Anita Derby in the most impressive performance among all the final prep races. His path is unconventional, but not unprecedented. Both Barbaro and Animal Kingdom started on the turf before winning the Derby.
Childs Walker
Baltimore Sun
Win: Rock Your World
Place: Essential Quality
Show: Midnight Bourbon
Comment: I’m betting that the relatively untested Rock Your World is the standout talent in this class and will fend off a game push from classy Essential Quality.
Tim Wilkin
Albany Times Union
Win: King Fury
Place: Essential Quality
Show: Medina Spirit
Comment: Lexington Stakes winner pulls off surprise in what looks to be an evenly matched group.
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