Kentucky or Duke? College basketball experts give us their game predictions.
Two teams looking to put disastrous 2020-21 basketball seasons behind them will meet on the court Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden, the scene of the latest Kentucky-Duke battle.
It will be the final season opener for Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski, who will retire next year, and — unless the Cats and Blue Devils meet in the NCAA Tournament — this will also be the final time UK faces Coach K, who is 6-2 against Kentucky as Duke’s head coach.
Both teams missed March Madness in 2021, but both have reloaded, and Final Four aspirations for 2022 appear to be realistic once again going into this season.
The Herald-Leader asked college basketball media members from Kentucky, North Carolina and some who cover the sport nationally to handicap this top-10 matchup. Here’s what they’re thinking heading into the Champions Classic clash Tuesday night.
Kentucky-Duke basketball predictions
John Clay, Herald-Leader: Duke 76, Kentucky 72 — The Blue Devils are not about to lose Coach K’s last game at Madison Square Garden.
Ben Roberts, Herald-Leader: Duke 75, Kentucky 68 — The Cats have more overall depth, but it’s likely going to take some time for all of those pieces to come together. I’ll give the edge to the Duke team with three returning starters and Paolo Banchero, who should be the best player on either side and might be the best freshman in all of college basketball this season.
Darrell Bird, The Cats’ Pause: Kentucky 88, Duke 79 — The last time Kentucky faced Duke in the season-opening Champions Classic in 2018, John Calipari had three freshmen in his starting lineup and the Zion Williamson-led Blue Devils steamrolled UK 118-84. It was 59-42 by halftime. This time, Calipari only has three freshmen on the entire roster and will be fielding a veteran squad that includes the SEC assist leader and a 2,000-point career scorer. It will still take time for this team to gel, but the process will move much more quickly starting with a victory over Duke in New York.
Jeff Borzello, ESPN: Duke 71, Kentucky 68 — I think both teams are borderline top-10 teams entering the season, but I think Duke might be a little ahead of Kentucky in terms of health and role allocation. Paolo Banchero is ready to come out of the gates with a monster performance.
Rick Bozich, WDRB: Duke 73, Kentucky 68 — On Friday afternoon I had Kentucky winning by 5. And then ...
Rob Cassidy, Rivals.com: Duke 81, Kentucky 78 — For many, this game will provide a first look at Duke super freshman Paolo Banchero, who could lead Duke in both points and rebounds on his way to becoming a lottery pick. On the UK side of things, John Calipari spent the offseason taking a sledgehammer to his roster. Freshman guard TyTy Washington and senior transfer Kellan Grady will be asked to do a lot of heavy lifting in the opener. Betting this game would be completely irresponsible because we know next to nothing about how these rosters will click.
Luke DeCock, Raleigh News & Observer: Duke 77, Kentucky 70 — Freshman Paolo Banchero will be a star right out of the box but Duke’s depth — players like Wendell Moore Jr. and Mark Williams — can be the difference in early-season games like this.
Mike DeCourcy, The Sporting News: Kentucky 72, Duke 70. Man, you ask the tough questions. I’m not totally flying blind, because I did see the Wildcats’ Blue-White Game and got the opportunity to watch the Blue Devils practice, but in a season where so little seems obvious at the start, the immediate effectiveness of these teams is less certain than most. They’re both very promising, but it’s still hard to tell. All that said, the edge goes to UK because I believe they have two point guards who are better than Duke’s one, and that position can be huge at the start of the season.
Jeff Drummond, Cats Illustrated: Kentucky 77, Duke 73 — This one was tough to pick as there are a lot of unknowns for both teams heading into the season, but I feel like the Cats’ revamped veteran roster — and a splash of sensational freshman TyTy Washington — will make the difference.
Chapel Fowler, Fayetteville Observer: Kentucky 86, Duke 79 — Duke will end up as one of the top teams in the ACC when it’s all said and done. But I like Kentucky’s veteran savvy, in the form of one-time North Carolina hoopers Davion Mintz and Kellan Grady, as an X-factor to push the Wildcats past the Blue Devils in this big-time matchup.
Scott Fowler, Charlotte Observer: Duke 84, Kentucky 78 — Paolo Banchero makes the difference as Blue Devils start Coach K’s final season with a flourish.
Dick Gabriel, Big Blue Insider: Kentucky 94, Duke 88 — Yes, the same score by which Kentucky beat Duke in the ’78 title game. Neither team is ready to play the kind of defense that will carry both to the Final Four; Duke will struggle to stop Oscar Tshiebwe and TyTy Washington; Kentucky will have no answer for Paolo Banchero. Should be fun.
Molly Geary, Sports Illustrated: Kentucky 73, Duke 70 — Both of these teams are incorporating major new pieces, which makes projecting any high-level opener like this tricky, but I think Kentucky’s backcourt and its overall edge in experience will be the difference.
Jeff Goodman, Stadium: Kentucky 74, Duke 71 — I just think the Cats’ perimeter will be the difference, especially point guard play. Sure, Paolo Banchero is the best player on either team, but this is also his first career college game. Kentucky should come out of the gates much better than usual because of their experience.
Jon Hale, Courier Journal: Duke 82, Kentucky 71 — Exhibition games may not matter in the long run, but I can’t pick Kentucky to beat a top-10 opponent after those performances. This seems like a game where the Wildcats’ post depth issues could be exposed with foul trouble from Oscar Tshiebwe.
Matt Jones, Kentucky Sports Radio: Kentucky 77, Duke 73 — Both teams have Final Four potential, but the veterans of Kentucky hit enough shots down the stretch to pull out a win.
Brendan Marks, The Athletic: Duke 84, Kentucky 78 — Kentucky is deeper and older than Duke is, but that doesn’t equate to better. Where the Wildcats have role players, the Blue Devils have studs, led by potential No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero; even if UK can keep Banchero in check (unlikely), I don’t see John Calipari’s squad having the frontcourt depth to also deal with 7-footer Mark Williams and Marquette transfer Theo John.
Mark Mathis, Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer: Kentucky 75, Duke 74 — A great matchup to start the college basketball season in Madison Square Garden, with some undercurrents (Coach K vs Kentucky) and a lot of talent on the floor for both teams. Giving Kentucky a slight edge with its roster.
Matt Norlander, CBS Sports: Kentucky 74, Duke 68 — One thing I am excited to see is how the two most popular programs in men’s basketball show themselves in the first game after aberrational down seasons. Duke will have the best talent on the floor (Paolo Banchero), but Kentucky will have more experience, probably a better backcourt, and I’ll take the Cats to nudge away late in a bit of a bumpy game overall.
Gary Parrish, CBS Sports: Duke 71, Kentucky 69 — Kentucky has more established good players — and I really like how John Calipari remade this roster to add quality ball handlers and shooting. But I just think Duke will have the best player on the court in Paolo Banchero, and sometimes that’s the difference.
Derek Terry, The Cats’ Pause: Duke 76, Kentucky 72 — I see a real matchup problem for UK defensively with Paolo Banchero. The Cats have their moments, but Duke pulls out a close victory.
David Thompson, Asheville Citizen Times: Duke 84, Kentucky 76 — Paolo Banchero and Duke’s frontcourt depth proves to be too much against a reinvigorated Kentucky team that struggled last season. Coach K gets the last laugh against recruiting rival John Calipari, at least for now.
Tyler Thompson, Kentucky Sports Radio: Duke 80, Kentucky 74 — Kentucky did not inspire confidence in its exhibition games. To beat Duke, the Cats must contain freshman phenom Paolo Banchero inside, and so far, the interior seems to be Kentucky’s biggest issue. Strong backcourt play will keep the Cats in this game, but I’m afraid the Blue Devils will win out in step No. 1 of Coach K’s Farewell Tour.
Kyle Tucker, The Athletic: Duke 77, Kentucky 70 — Two words: Paolo Banchero. John Calipari has his (and UK’s) most experienced team ever, but he lacks a potential No. 1 pick type player. Mike Krzyzewski has that guy, and I’m not sure anyone for the Wildcats can stop Banchero.
Larry Vaught, Vaught’s Views: Duke 84, Kentucky 82 — It’s so hard to know what to expect in these opening matchups, but Duke’s inside ability does concern me a little bit. Also knowing this starts the Coach K Farewell Tour, I’ll give the edge to Duke.
John Watson, The Devils Den: Duke 84, Kentucky 79 — Right now the Blue Devils are healthy and they should have a decided advantage on the interior with Paolo Banchero, Mark Williams, and company. A big key for Duke will be the play of point guard Jeremy Roach, who struggled as a freshman but has looked much more confident in his second season and who reportedly played very well against Villanova in the secret scrimmage. I don’t think it’ll be another near-40-point walloping like the last time these two met in the Champions Classic, but I do think Duke has better top-end players and a more defined rotation than Kentucky at this point in the season.
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