For Kentucky football, there is a clear make-or-break game in 2023

Mark Story
·5 min read
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For Mark Stoops and Kentucky football, the 2023 season is divided into two distinct phases.

In the first seven games of 2023, Stoops and troops will face only two teams that had winning records last year — FCS foe Eastern Kentucky (7-5 in 2022) and two-time defending FBS national champion Georgia (15-0).

Job one for the Wildcats, then, is to “take care of business” early on against what, on paper, is the light half (Georgia excluded) of the UK schedule.

The second task for Kentucky in the coming season looks much steeper. Over the final five games of 2023, UK will face Tennessee (11-2), play at Mississippi State (9-4), take on Alabama (11-2), and finish out the season with road games at South Carolina (8-5) and Louisville (8-5).

It is how Kentucky fares against the back half of its schedule that seems likely to determine how fans ultimately view the 2023 UK season.

Based on both 1.) Kentucky’s realistic opportunity of winning; and 2.) the program ramifications that would come with victory, this is how each game of the impending UK football season ranks in terms of importance.

12. Akron (2-10 in 2022). A loss to the Zips, who are 9-45 since 2018, would be calamitous.

Likelihood of a UK victory: High.

Program ramifications of winning: Low.

Kentucky sophomore wide receiver Dane Key, the former Fredrick Douglass High School star, is one of eight offensive starters returning for Mark Stoops and UK in 2023.
Kentucky sophomore wide receiver Dane Key, the former Fredrick Douglass High School star, is one of eight offensive starters returning for Mark Stoops and UK in 2023.

11. Ball State (5-7 in 2022). The college alma mater of David Letterman has endured eight losing years in its last nine football seasons.

Likelihood of a UK victory: High.

Program ramifications of winning: Low.

10. Eastern Kentucky (7-5 in 2022). Obviously, Kentucky losing to an in-state, FCS foe would be a season killer. Yet Stoops-era history says this won’t be an easy game. EKU has led UK in the second half of the past two meetings (2015 and 2017) between the two schools before falling.

Likelihood of a UK victory: High.

Program ramifications of winning: Low.

EKU head football coach Walt Wells spent the 2018 and 2019 seasons on the staff of Kentucky head man Mark Stoops as an offensive quality control aide.
EKU head football coach Walt Wells spent the 2018 and 2019 seasons on the staff of Kentucky head man Mark Stoops as an offensive quality control aide.

9. Missouri (6-7 in 2022). Against a Tigers program UK has recently dominated (the Cats have won seven of eight), Kentucky does not want to get caught napping at home as occurred last year in losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt under a similar competitive dynamic.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Good.

Program ramifications of winning: Medium.

8. At Vanderbilt (5-7 in 2022). Vandy snapped a 26-game SEC losing streak with its 24-21 upset of Kentucky in Lexington last season. There is a strong case that was the “worst loss” of the Stoops coaching tenure.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Good.

Program ramifications of winning: Medium.

Vanderbilt star running back Ray Davis (2) ran for 129 yards in the Commodores’ upset 24-21 victory over Kentucky in 2022. Thanks to the graduate transfer rule, Davis will be playing for UK when the Wildcats travel to Nashville to face his former team on Sept. 23.
Vanderbilt star running back Ray Davis (2) ran for 129 yards in the Commodores’ upset 24-21 victory over Kentucky in 2022. Thanks to the graduate transfer rule, Davis will be playing for UK when the Wildcats travel to Nashville to face his former team on Sept. 23.

7. Florida (6-7 in 2022). After losing 31 games in a row vs. the Gators from 1987 though 2017, Kentucky will be going for its fourth victory in the past six meetings in the series when UF visits Lexington on Sept. 30.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Better than even.

Program ramifications of winning: High.

6. Alabama (11-2 in 2022). The “Saban-ic forces” will come to Lexington Nov. 11 off back-to-back games with Tennessee and LSU, making Kentucky a potential “trap game” for the Crimson Tide.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Low.

Program ramifications of winning: Monumental.

Under Mark Stoops, left, Kentucky is 0-3 vs. Alabama and Crimson Tide head man Nick Saban, right. The Wildcats have been outscored 145-16 combined in those three games.
Under Mark Stoops, left, Kentucky is 0-3 vs. Alabama and Crimson Tide head man Nick Saban, right. The Wildcats have been outscored 145-16 combined in those three games.

5. At Georgia (15-0, SEC and national champions in 2022). Kentucky has lost 13 in a row vs. the Bulldogs and, in the Stoops coaching era, has only played the Dawgs within single digits one time — a 27-24 loss in 2016.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Slim.

Program ramifications of winning: Epic.

4. At Mississippi State (9-4 in 2022). Among teams it plays every year (for now), Kentucky has beaten Georgia in Athens more recently (2009) than it has beaten MSU in Starkville (2008).

Likelihood of a UK victory: Low.

Program ramifications of winning: Big.

3. At South Carolina (8-5 in 2022). Kentucky is 3-1 vs. South Carolina in the past four meetings in Columbia — but does the game’s moving to the 11th slot on the schedule (Nov. 18) change the fundamentals?

Likelihood of a UK victory: Medium.

Program ramifications of winning: Big.

2. At Louisville (8-5 in 2022). With Jeff Brohm debuting as a head coach in the Governor’s Cup rivalry and Mark Stoops seeking to extend his hold over U of L (wins in four straight and five of the past six), the coaching stakes are unusually high for this year’s intrastate Armageddon.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Better than even.

Program ramifications of winning: Big.

New Louisville head man Jeff Brohm has been a good “rivalry coach” over the course of his college career. He went 2-1 vs. Middle Tennessee State as Western Kentucky head man (2014-2016) and 4-1 against Indiana as Purdue coach (2017-2022).
New Louisville head man Jeff Brohm has been a good “rivalry coach” over the course of his college career. He went 2-1 vs. Middle Tennessee State as Western Kentucky head man (2014-2016) and 4-1 against Indiana as Purdue coach (2017-2022).

1. Tennessee (11-2 in 2022). The Rocky Toppers are Kentucky’s first opponent following UK’s open date (Oct. 21) to begin the brutal five-game stretch that will close out the Wildcats’ season.

A Kentucky victory over Tennessee would probably generate a wave of positive momentum sufficient to carry the Wildcats to success against their back-loaded schedule. However, a UK loss to UT could create a dispirited dynamic that makes it challenging for the Wildcats to close out 2023 with success.

That’s why the Volunteers shape up as Kentucky’s “biggest game” of 2023.

Likelihood of a UK victory: Medium.

Program ramifications of winning: Gargantuan.

2023 Kentucky football schedule

Home games in all capital letters. Remaining game times and TV assignments to be announced later.

Sept. 2: BALL STATE, Noon (SEC Network)

Sept. 9: EASTERN KENTUCKY, 3 p.m. (SEC Network Plus)

Sept. 16: AKRON, 7:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

Sept. 23: At Vanderbilt

Sept. 30: FLORIDA

Oct. 7: At Georgia

Oct. 14: MISSOURI

Oct. 21: Open

Oct. 28: TENNESSEE

Nov. 4: At Mississippi State

Nov. 11: ALABAMA

Nov. 18: At South Carolina

Nov. 25: At Louisville

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