How Kentucky football and Mississippi State match up — with a game prediction

Mark Story

November 1, 2023 at 4:03 PM·7 min read

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How the Kentucky Wildcats (5-3, 2-3 SEC) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4, 1-4 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

▪ Kentucky’s Devin Leary (57.3 percent completions, 1,749 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, seven interceptions) played his best game to date as a Wildcat in last week’s 33-27 loss to Tennessee. The 6-foot-1, 217-pound graduate transfer from North Carolina State completed 28 of 39 passes for 372 yards with two TDs vs. zero picks. A Sicklerville, New Jersey, product, Leary has played at Mississippi State before. On Sept. 11, 2021, Leary quarterbacked N.C. State in a 24-14 loss at MSU. In defeat, Leary completed 30 of 49 passes for 303 yards and a TD. He also threw an interception and was sacked four times.

▪ Against Mississippi State, Mark Stoops and the UK defensive brain trust must prepare for two very different quarterbacks — each of whom has enjoyed prior success vs. Kentucky. Until a left shoulder injury caused Will Rogers (61.4 completion percentage, 1,275 passing yards, 10 TDs. vs. four picks) to miss the past two games, the 6-2, 215-pound senior had started 38 straight games for MSU. A dropback passer, the Brandon, Mississippi, product thrived in ex-MSU coach Mike Leach’s Air Raid. Rogers completed 36 of 39 passes for 344 yards in Mississippi State’s 31-17 win over UK in Starkville in 2021. In Rogers’ absence the past two weeks, Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright (58.2 percent completions, 307 yards, three TDs vs. two picks) has run the State offense. A dual threat, Wright engineered Vandy’s 24-21 upset of UK in Lexington last season, running 11 times for 126 yards and a touchdown and completing 12 of 23 passes for 184 yards with one TD and one interception.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Running backs

▪ Tennessee sold out defensively to stop Kentucky star Ray Davis (823 rushing yards, nine touchdowns, 6.5 yards a carry) and held the Vanderbilt transfer to a season low 42 yards on 16 carries. The 5-10, 216-pound San Francisco product also caught three passes for 28 yards vs. UT. When Davis scored on a 7-yard run last week, it extended his streak of games with at least one touchdown to eight. UK came out of its bye week vowing to get North Carolina State transfer Demie Sumo-Karngbaye more involved in its offense. Against UT, the 6-foot, 200-pound product of Willingboro, New Jersey, carried once for two yards and caught three passes for 24 yards.

▪ Mississippi State’s Jo’Quavious Marks (500 yards rushing, four TDs, 5.2 yards a carry; 18 catches, 138 receiving yards, one TD) has more than 1,000 career yards both rushing (1,810) and receiving (1,196). The 5-10, 210-pound senior from Atlanta missed last week’s 27-13 loss at Auburn with a lower-leg injury. In MSU’s win over UK in Starkville two seasons ago, Marks ran for 58 yards and a TD and caught nine passes for 57 yards. In the absence of Marks, backups Seth Davis (62 rushing yards on seven carries) and Jeffrey Pittman (10 for 51) performed well for coach Zach Arnett vs. Auburn.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Kentucky running back Ray Davis (1) has scored at least one touchdown in all eight UK games this season.

Wide receivers

▪ Kentucky sophomore Dane Key (24 catches, team-high 395 yards, three touchdowns) had the best game of his college career to date last week vs. Tennessee. The 6-3, 195-pound Frederick Douglass High School alumnus caught seven passes for 113 yards, both career highs, and had a TD reception vs. the Volunteers. Sophomore Barion Brown (team-high 28 receptions, 334 yards, two TDs) also played well vs. UT, catching five passes for 58 yards and a touchdown.

▪ Mississippi State’s Zavion Thomas (21 receptions, 266 yards, one touchdown) had the best game of his career last week vs. Auburn, catching nine passes for 112 yards and a touchdown. Lideatrick Griffin (team highs of 35 catches, 512 yards and three TDs) has caught at least one pass in 23 straight games.

Avantage: Even.

Kentucky wide receiver Dane Key (6) signaled first down after making a reception during UK’s 33-27 loss to Tennessee last week. Key, a former Frederick Douglass High School star, had career highs of seven receptions and 113 receiving yards and also caught a touchdown pass vs. the Volunteers.

Tight ends

▪ Kentucky redshirt sophomore Jordan Dingle (11 catches, 198 receiving yards) had a big game vs. Tennessee, catching four passes for 61 yards. Sophomore Josh Kattus (seven catches, 70 yards, two TDs) caught two passes for 35 yards last week.

▪ Mississippi State has started three different players at tight end. Hybrid TE/wide receiver Antonio Harmon has two starts and nine catches for 78 yards and a touchdown this season. Conventional tight ends Ryland Goede, a transfer from Georgia, and Malik Ellis have combined for seven starts but have no catches.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Kentucky redshirt sophomore tight end Jordan Dingle (85) caught four passes for 61 yards in UK’s 33-27 loss to Tennessee last week.

Offensive line

▪ Kentucky super-senior left guard Kenneth Horsey returned to action vs. Missouri two games ago after suffering an injury in the season opener but was sidelined again vs. Tennessee. West Virginia transfer Dylan Ray again stepped in for Horsey, with Jager Burton returning to the starting right guard spot after missing the Mizzou contest due to injury. In a strong performance, the UK offensive line limited Tennessee’s normally disruptive defensive front to one sack and four tackles for loss.

▪ A Mississippi State offensive front in which all five starters have in excess of 20 career starts is anchored by veteran right tackle and Starkville native Kameron Jones (39 career starts) and center Cole Smith (35 career starts) — who began his career at LSU.

Advantage: Even.

Versatile Kentucky offensive lineman Dylan Ray (73) has started at both left and right guard this season.

Defensive line

▪ Kentucky sophomore tackle Deone Walker (28 tackles) leads UK in tackles for loss (7.5), quarterback hurries (five) and sacks (4.5). Senior end Octavious Oxendine (17 tackles, 2.5 TFL) was active against Tennessee with four tackles and half a QB sack.

▪ Listed as Mississippi State’s backup defensive tackle, senior De’Monte Russell has impressive “disruption stats” with 4.5 tackles for loss, three quarterback hurries and 1.5 sacks to go with 34 tackles. Senior nose guard Nathan Pickering makes plays (32 tackles, 2.5 TFL, two sacks, three hurries) from the middle of the line.

Advantage: Mississippi State.

Mississippi State nose tackle Nathan Pickering (22) tried to get Kentucky running back Christopher Rodriguez to the ground during UK’s 24-2 win over the Bulldogs in 2020.

Linebackers

▪ Kentucky MLB D’Eryk Jackson, a 6-1, 245-pound product of Dublin, Georgia, had 11 tackles and two tackles for loss in the loss to Tennessee. Jackson now leads UK in tackles on the season with 55. Junior WLB Trevin Wallace (42 tackles, five TFL, 3.5 sacks) missed the Missouri game due to injury but returned to make 11 stops vs. UT.

▪ Mississippi State’s Nathaniel Watson and WLB Jett Johnson are the top two tacklers in the SEC. Middle linebacker Watson has 80 tackles with team-high totals of 7.5 quarterback sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss and four quarterback hurries. Weakside linebacker Johnson has made 84 tackles and has 8.5 TFL, four sacks and two interceptions.

Advantage: Mississippi State.

Mississippi State linebacker Jett Johnson (44) leads the SEC in tackles with 84.

Defensive backs

▪ Kentucky true freshman free safety Ty Bryant made his first career start vs. Tennessee in place of a sidelined Jordan Lovett. All the 6-foot, 187-pound Frederick Douglass High School product did is lead UK in tackles with 12 and earn raves from Cats coach Mark Stoops. “He had a lot of good plays, he had a bunch of production for us,” Stoops said of Bryant.

▪ Mississippi State has two former UK defensive backs and one ex-Kentucky recruiting commitment on its roster. Former junior college cornerback DeCarlos Nicholson flipped from UK to MSU late in the class of 2022 cycle. In a starting role, the 6-3, 195-pound senior has 25 tackles, two tackles for loss and two pass breakups. Ex-UK CB Jamari Brown — who left Kentucky to play for Purdue — has appeared in two games for MSU and has made one tackle. Former UK safety Ja’Kobi Albert has not appeared in a game this season.

Advantage: Mississippi State.

In his first career start last week against Tennessee, Kentucky true freshman safety Ty Bryant (14) made a team-high 12 tackles and drew praise for his play from Mark Stoops. “Stepped in and played fantastic,” the UK coach said of Bryant.

Special teams

▪ Kentucky punter Wilson Berry (40 yards a punt, seven of 29 kicks stopped inside the opponents’ 20-yard line) has struggled in the middle part of the season. Place-kicker Alex Raynor missed his first field goal try as a Wildcat last week from 53 yards against Tennessee. However, the Georgia Southern transfer is 8-of-9 on the season on field-goal attempts with a long of 50 yards.

▪ Mississippi State punter Keelan Crimmins is averaging 41.3 yards a kick and has stopped eight of 27 punts inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Place-kicker Kyle Ferrie is 10-of-13 on field-goal tries with a long of 49 yards. MSU’s return game is stellar: Punt returner Zavion Thomas is averaging 13.67 yards on nine returns; kickoff returner Lideatrick Griffin is averaging 25.86 yards on seven returns.

Advantage: Mississippi State.