Kentucky GOP poised to expand supermajority, but Democratic hopes hinge on one factor

For the past two years in Frankfort, Republicans' legislative supermajority has dominated the Kentucky General Assembly, with 75 out of 100 seats in the House and 30 of 38 seats in the Senate.

With the help of their new redistricting maps — particularly in the House — that supermajority may now be poised to expand past 80% of each chamber after Tuesday's election.

Republicans are assured to flip one seat in the Senate — where no Democrat bothered to run — and are heavily targeting at least eight vulnerable Democratic incumbents in House districts redrawn so the GOP challenger has great odds.

Along with Democrats fielding no candidate in 44 House races, they find themselves with a House map where President Joe Biden won the vote in only 19 of the House districts in the 2020 election — including none outside Jefferson and Fayette.

But is all hope lost for Democrats hoping to stem the GOP and escape further irrelevance?

According to some Democrats, one factor that may save some incumbents is the U.S. Supreme Court's Dobbs ruling in June that overturned Roe v. Wade and ended the federal right to an abortion.

Such optimism came to the forefront in August when voters in conservative Kansas shot down by an 18 percentage point margin a constitutional amendment to declare that no right to an abortion exists in that state — very similar to the ballot amendment voters will decide on this fall in Kentucky.

Related:On Election Day, you'll decide whether to ban abortion in Kentucky. Here's what to know

There are still a lot of women "who haven't forgotten about it and are motivated to let their voice be heard," Democratic consultant Matt Erwin said

But beyond that issue, Democrats must contend with a fall surge of unfavorable conditions. Nationally, those include 40-year high inflation, rising gas prices and a president with low approval ratings, along with a Kentucky trend of rising violent crime rates in cities.

Republican political consultant Tres Watson said he thought in early September that Democrats may only lose two or three seats due to the Dobbs backlash, but now he sees the national political swing rightward — reflected in many national polls — as putting 80 House seats in play for the GOP, "maybe as high as 81 or 82."

"I think that the Dobbs stuff has kind of fallen off in importance," Watson said. "Gas prices started going back up, inflation, and people have shifted their focus back to 'it's the economy stupid.'"

But Erwin said the "too many people are underestimating" the impact Dodd's impact. "The women of this country haven't even had a chance to vote after their right to safe legal abortion was taken away."

Redistricting and half-empty races

No matter what, Democrats are sure to face at least a 31 to 7 disadvantage in the Senate. They fielded no candidate in District 10 — where the incumbent Democrat chose not to run — and in Districts 6 and 36 on the outskirts of Louisville, where Donald Trump won in 2020 by just 10 and 3 percentage points, respectively.

More:Hopes dashed, Kentucky Democrats ponder next moves after election thrashing

In the House, they are defending their remaining 25 seats, but only contesting 56 of them. Half a dozen of their seats — including on the outskirts of Louisville and Lexington, and in Bowling Green and Northern Kentucky — have been redistricted to improve GOP odds.

• In South Louisville, Democratic Reps. Charles Miller and Jeff Donohue face well-funded GOP challengers in an area that has turned increasingly red.

• Northern Kentucky Democratic incumbents Buddy Wheatley of Covington and Rachel Roberts of Newport face Republicans in districts that Biden narrowly lost, as do Rep. Patti Minter of Bowling Green and Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson of south Lexington.

• The two remaining Democratic incumbents in Eastern Kentucky — Reps. Ashley Tackett Laferty of Martin and Angie Hatton of Whitesburg — face tough battles in areas that went overwhelmingly for Trump. The former president won Hatton's District 94 by 62 percentage points and Tackett Laferty's District 95 by 51 points.

More:Judge denies motion to halt Kentucky redistricting. Here's what it means for the election.

Sean Southard, spokesman for the Republican Party of Kentucky, told The Courier Journal it is "a stunning indictment" of Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear's party that they "ceded nearly half" of the House to Republicans without even filing a candidate.

"The Kentucky Democrat (sic) Party tweets (and swears) a lot about their strength, but they aren’t able to recruit candidates to run for office," Southard said. "Perhaps they should take some of the money they are hoarding for Governor Beshear’s reelection effort and put it towards candidate recruitment or focus groups to figure out how they have become all but extinct."

Responding on Twitter to the lack of contested races, Kentucky Democratic Party Chairman Colmon Elridge wrote in a series of tweets that the party is more focused on candidate quality than quantity.

"If we were like the GOP & didn’t care who our candidates were, we could fill every race," Elridge tweeted. "As long as they’re a 'D' let’s fill the ballot, even if they’re, like many GOP candidates, morally bankrupt."

Kentucky Democratic Party spokesman Sebastian Kitchen said in an email that "despite running in districts Republicans have heavily gerrymandered," the party's candidates across the state "are waging competitive campaigns and talking to voters about things that matter to them."

Republican candidates in competitive races have mostly been focused on inflation, crime and cutting taxes, while also picking up on conservative trends of opposition to so-called "critical race theory" and transgender participation in women's sports.

One of Democrats' increasingly familiar subjects in suburban races is abortion.

'Are they going to take it out on them?'

In early October, the campaign committee of the House Democratic caucus released an ad targeting 10 "extreme" GOP candidates — not just for supporting a big tax cut for "out-of-state corporations and the rich," but their support for Kentucky's near-total ban on abortion.

The targeted Republicans include three that Democrats hope they can unseat.

The redistricting of District 93 from Eastern Kentucky to Lexington due to population loss may give Democrats their best opportunity, where Biden won by nearly 20 points. There, Democrat Lamin Swann faces Republican Kyle Whalen, who has raised and spent five times more than Swann.

Democrats' other two opportunities are districts in eastern Jefferson County stretching into Oldham County — against two Republicans they failed to knock off in 2020.

Rep. Ken Fleming faces Democrat Maria Sorolis in District 48 for the fourth consecutive election — with Fleming winning twice and Sorolis once in 2018, with the last two races within 2 percentage points. Biden also won the district by 2 points in 2020.

More:'Radical dollars' or Kentucky money? The latest numbers on abortion amendment fundraising

In District 33 — now including more GOP-friendly territory in Oldham County — Rep. Jason Nemes faces Democrat Kate Turner.

Turner is active posting videos on social media, with several going viral, hitting Nemes for voting 17 times for legislation restriction abortion access —.including the 2019 trigger law and six-week abortion ban now in effect.

A recent Democratic mailer pitched in, saying Nemes "is so extreme, he voted to force women to give birth to the child of their rapist."

Nemes has countered that he would support a rape and incest exemption to Kentucky's abortion ban, stating on his campaign website that "abortion is the single issue she's running on, so she is trying to make me out to be a monster."

While Watson believes this strategy could have been effective if the Dobbs ruling had come closer to the election, he says much of the emotion behind the issue has faded and Republican messaging on economic insecurity will win out.

"If you haven't been directly affected by abortion or abortion access, it's hard to get fired up about that issue when you're not sure where your next mortgage payment or your next rent check is coming from," Watson said.

More:As midterms loom, what's shaping undecided voters' opinions in 5 charts

Jared Smith, a Democratic consultant in Kentucky, said Democrats are certainly facing increased headwinds of redistricting and national economic trends, but the abortion amendment and the issue may save Democratic incumbents or cause Fleming or Nemes to fall.

"Are (suburban women) gonna go in and vote no on Amendment 2 and then yes for all the Republicans?" Smith asked. "Or are they going to take it out on them? And that we don't know."

Watson suspects the amendment may help Republican candidates in some respect, as it could give "more moderate, center-right people who weren't fans of Dobbs a place to direct their ire, rather than the candidate."

Barney Fife and gang violence in Louisville

Already facing a perilous environment as the two south Louisville Democratic incumbents in Trump-friendly territory, Miller and Donohue are also being outspent — with the help of the Republican Party of Kentucky and a GOP super PAC, Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, that has pitched in half a million dollars to help Republicans in eight competitive races.

A new Kentucky GOP mailer shows Miller's head photoshopped onto the body of an iconic TV character from the black-and-white era, stating he "talks like John Wayne ... votes like Barney Fife."

Another GOP mailer blames him for homicides "tripling" in Louisville since he was elected in 1998, and they both cite Miller's vote in 2018 against a bill targeting gangs — which several Louisville Republicans, including Nemes, voted against for going "too far."

Adding to the pile is $68,000 of ads purchased by Kentuckians for Strong Leadership — twice the amount Miller's campaign has reported spending in the entire race — that call him "anti-cop and pro-felon."

More:2022 Kentucky House elections: Louisville candidates on abortion, marijuana, 'red flag' laws

Donohue got the same treatment, with mailers saying he "votes to protect gangs" and highlight his votes against two bills this year to limit bail charity organizations and increase penalties on fentanyl traffickers. Kentuckians for Strong Leadership also spent $67,000 on ads — also double what Donohue has reported spending to date — hitting him for voting against a tax cut bill.

Meanwhile, the campaign of Miller's GOP opponent, Jared Bauman, who is roughly 50 years younger, portrays the Republican as "delivering a new generation of strong and active leadership." The Strong Leadership ad attacking Donohue describes his GOP opponent Emily Callaway as "a hardworking mom and political outsider who truly gets the south end."

However, Smith is still skeptical that the longtime Democratic incumbents will be unseated.

"I just don't see it. I mean, it's blue collar, it's union," Smith said. "And I don't see how they'd align themselves with a party that's kind of the opposite of that."

Kitchen said Republicans and their "increasingly extreme candidates" are focused on dividing Kentuckians and "engaged in a constant barrage of dishonest and outlandish attacks because they’re campaigning on fear and not on Kentucky’s future.”

'The stakes are too high'

As for the two vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Northern Kentucky, most political observers believe Roberts is the safest.

The reason, Watson says, is that her GOP opponent, Jerry Gearding, is "a significantly flawed candidate" who has received no support from state party committees.

The Kentucky Democratic Party is jumping on Gearding's domestic violence arrests in 2018 and 2019, with emergency protective orders filed against him those same years by the same woman.

A KDP mailer shows a woman with a black eye and one of Gearding's mugshots, while the Kentucky Fraternal Order of Police cited his arrest record in their endorsement of Roberts — one of only two Democratic legislators with an opponent the FOP is endorsing this cycle.

Meanwhile, Roberts has raised and spent more than 10 times that of Gearding's campaign, with an ad featuring her endorsement from Leanna Honmadberg — the Republican candidate she beat in 2020 — who says "it doesn't matter what party you're in. The stakes are too high in this election."

Gearding has expressed his innocence and said the "Socialist Left" is using the arrests to attack him, adding that the charges were dismissed.

Gearding is also not without support, including the endorsement of ideologically like-minded GOP Congressman Thomas Massie.

More:NKY's House District 67: Incumbent Rachel Roberts runs against Republican Jerry Gearding

In addition to making his opposition to all abortion prominent in his campaign, Gearding has said he has "no doubt" that Trump had the 2020 election stolen from him, citing as evidence that Trump has much larger crowd sizes than Biden.

Former Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who is from the same Northern Kentucky region, says it is true that most in the party establishment won't touch Gearding, but he wouldn't totally count him out, citing national trends and the fact that the region has become notorious for unexpected outcomes involving candidates from the "liberty" wing of the party.

"The question is, is it a big Republican year and has Northern Kentucky become so Republican that it just doesn't matter, even a quality candidate can lose."

Wheatley, a retired Covington fire chief, is taking on Republican family law attorney Stephanie Dietz.

While Wheatley has reported raising and spending roughly twice as much as Dietz, once again Kentuckians for Strong Leadership has neutralized that advantage. The PAC purchased $83,000 of ads hitting Wheatley on inflation and taxes, close to the $100,000 raised by Wheatley.

Dietz's campaign also has used the GOP supermajority to her advantage, saying that unlike Wheatley, she will give Covington "a seat at the table."

Grayson said that message — a common theme among GOP candidates this year — is likely to be effective.

"That's what makes it so hard, once you get in the minority, to retake the majority, because you're kind of throwing your vote away."

An Appalachian attempt at 'Let's go Brandon'

Hatton, the House minority whip, is tasked with winning in a district that was both dramatically altered, and whose constituents gave Trump more than 80% of the vote.

She faces Republican challenger Jacob Justice, a dentist who has outraised Hatton with the help of his GOP caucus' campaign committee. Hatton also faces uncertainty because her base lies in Whitesburg and Letcher County, which was devastated by flooding in August that displaced many.

Watson said that displacement and the mechanics of voting there may hurt her chances, but Smith added that many across party and ideological lines saw "the leadership she showed during the floods."

More:Gerth: Freedom Fest showed how far Trump Republicans have gone off the rails

"I just think Letcher County will vote for Letcher County instead of party," Smith said. "And if they do that like they've done before with her, then she'll be OK."

In District 95, Biden's unpopularity takes center stage with Tackett Laferty's GOP opponent, James Spencer, who was once a Democrat in the legislature. He goes by his middle name, Brandon, with his campaign and GOP ads proclaiming "Let's Go Brandon!" — the coded curse out popular among many conservatives, meaning "---- you Biden."

'Extreme wokeism' mailer in Bowling Green

Bowling Green is the site of the most expensive House race, where Minter faces a challenge from Republican Kevin Jackson, a former educator.

Both have raised approximately $160,000 for the general election, with Kentuckians for Strong Leadership again coming to the Republican's aid with $60,000 of attack ads.

While Minter's campaign has touted her record of supporting public schools, workers' rights and access to affordable health care, attack ads have focused on culture war issues involving transgender kids and critical race theory.

A GOP mailer accuses her of "extreme wokeism" and "pushing transgender agendas on our kids" for voting against a bill banning transgender girls from girls' sports and "against combatting CRT." The party also criticized her for signing a permit for the Bowling Green Pride Festival.

More:Here's what to know about the Kentucky legislature's passage of the transgender sports ban

In House District 88 in Lexington, Stevenson has raised and spent slightly more than her GOP opponent Jim Coleman, a former Wall Street executive, but Kentuckians for Strong Leadership has also pitched in $56,000 of ads criticizing her for the vote against the trans sports ban.

Stevenson, who won by close margins in her first two victories, now faces her toughest fight yet, with her district boundaries completely changed to the northern section of Fayette County and southern Scott County — which Trump won by 5 percentage points.

With the wide backing of labor unions, Stevenson has campaigned on reversing a 2021 law that moved new public school teachers from a defined benefit pension plan to a hybrid plan.

Reach reporter Joe Sonka at jsonka@courierjournal.com and follow him on Twitter at @joesonka.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky legislature elections: Can abortion amendment stop GOP wave?