Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear won't talk about 2027 and beyond. But his supporters will

Election Day 2023 was kind to Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. He won four more years in office.

Now that we've got that out of the way, let's talk about 2028.

In debates against GOP challenger Daniel Cameron, Beshear — the only Democrat to win a Kentucky statewide election Tuesday — committed to serving the full four years in office. But that hasn't stopped speculation about his next steps.

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell's seat will be open in 2026. U.S. Sen. Rand Paul will be up for reelection in 2028. Beshear's name is bound to come up in conversations about Kentucky Democrats who could contend for those seats against Republicans, as their party's number of registered voters continues to grow.

And then there's the 2028 presidential race. A lot can change in just a few years, but Beshear, term-limited and unable to seek a third stint as governor, has a track record as a Democrat who's beaten Republicans in a red state that could put him in the conversation for a seat in the White House.

He's been asked about his future ambitions before. Beshear said in no uncertain terms during a debate that he would not run for a Senate seat at any point during his time as governor — "my pledge is to serve a full four years," he said on Oct. 23.

And just one day after winning reelection to remain in office through 2027, he was clear that his "sole attention" is on serving as governor in a state where he and his wife, Britainy Beshear, are raising two children.

"I love this commonwealth. It's where our kids are growing up. I want to leave it in the very best shape I can," he said Wednesday in his first press conference since the win. "... We just came off an election. Will's a freshman in high school. Lila's in eighth grade. I'm happy that their lives are going to remain stable. Frankfort's been really good to us. I'm just living in this moment."

Beshear was restrained. Others won't be.

Optimism among supporters

One poll, four days before the election, projected the two candidates in a dead heat. But for months, Beshear seemed to have all the momentum. And it showed up Tuesday, painting a clear picture of Beshear's appeal.

He won 29 counties, six more than he landed in his narrow 2019 win. He beat Cameron by more than 67,000 votes — four years earlier, he edged former Gov. Matt Bevin by just over 5,000. And this time, he beat a candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump in a state Trump won by more than 25 points in 2020.

That kind of success coupled with a strong performance while in office will earn attention at higher levels of government, former Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer said Tuesday at the Democrats' election party.

“He’s a guy that believes in doing good things and then opportunities will create themselves,” Fischer said. “There’s a lot of people in these offices that are just overly political, and Andy’s a guy who’s about getting things done.”

At every chance he could on the campaign trail, Beshear touted Kentucky's economic wins during his time in office and promoted bipartisan legislation from the General Assembly he'd signed to legalize medical marijuana and sports betting. And he won fans during his response to the COVID-19 pandemic and in the aftermath of natural disasters that hit the state in 2021 and 2022.

The compassion he showed during the hard times are what won over Dan Dykstra, a Louisville man who also attended Tuesday's election night party at Paristown Hall. He voted for Beshear because he sees the governor as a politician who cares about his constituents.

"The work he did to lead us through the pandemic I think was admirable," he said. "I’m a chaplain in a hospital, so I appreciated the support he gave to hospital workers and the knowledge he gave us on a daily basis.”

Saying Beshear has "set the stage" for advancing Kentucky to new heights, Dykstra said he thinks the governor has what it takes for higher office.

“I think he’s presidential,” Dykstra said. The victory showed Beshear didn't need a presidential endorsement to win (he mostly avoided bringing up President Joe Biden on the campaign trail, despite Cameron's efforts to tie the two together) and that a Democrat could withstand a Trump-endorsed opponent.

“If he can win tonight, it’s a way of saying … that this is a new way, a different way,” Dykstra said Tuesday evening.

Four more years

When Beshear won his first gubernatorial race on Election Day 2019, the University of Louisville men's basketball team was ranked No. 5 in the nation, no one had heard of the novel coronavirus and "Old Town Road" had just ended its run at the top of the charts.

The point is, a lot can happen in four years. Beshear's political future holds no guarantees, and he'll return to Frankfort with his Republican opponents still in office.

On Wednesday, he was optimistic that his term-limited final four years in Frankfort would lead to an easier relationship with lawmakers on the other side of the aisle, as they could work with him on legislation without having to "worry about whether it's a win or a loss for me."

Louisville voter Emalee Morley said she thinks Beshear can be bolder without having to worry about reelection in 2027. Success in the next four years, she said, would send a message to national voters.

“I think he would make an excellent selection to be in a cabinet position," the nonprofit technology worker said. "I think he’d make an amazing vice president choice for candidates. And even depending on how the field looks, he would be a really good candidate himself.”

But Beshear's popularity and success in the election isn't likely to thaw his icy relationship with the GOP-controlled legislature, which holds supermajorities in both chambers.

Republican lawmakers have ignored Beshear's budget proposals and easily overridden his vetoes.

Days before the election, one of governor's chief adversaries in Frankfort predicted more of the same and pledged to do everything in his power to block Beshear's agenda as his star shines brighter on the national stage.

"If he is reelected, it's not going to be a good four years for him, I can tell you that right now," state Sen. Damon Thayer, R-Georgetown, said in an interview. "He'll be more irrelevant in his second term than he was in his first, and I will lead the way in that irrelevancy."

Thayer, who serves as the GOP floor leader in the Senate, said throughout the 2023 campaign Beshear often took credit for popular agenda items passed by Republican legislators, such as a bill cutting the individual income tax rate from 4.5% to 4%. He said the governor's popularity is due largely to receiving a free pass from the press and the benefits of his famous last name (his father Steve Beshear was governor from 2007 to 2015).

"He's not what he portrays himself to be," Thayer said. "He's really a member of the lucky DNA club."

And for both parties, questions remain about 2027 regardless of what happens with Beshear.

Republicans control the state Senate and House of Representatives along with every other major statewide elected office. But they'll need to find their next candidate for governor.

Secretary of State Michael Adams claimed the most votes of anyone on the ballot this week and talked like a possible gubernatorial candidate in his victory speech, with nods to improving education and social services. Kentucky's attorney general has run for governor in the last two elections as well — that office was won Tuesday by Republican Russell Coleman, a former U.S. attorney.

Democrats may be facing an even tougher decision. Beshear is the unquestioned leader of the party without a clear successor waiting in the wings. And Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman (no relation to Kentucky's new attorney general) shot down early speculation Wednesday when asked if she could run in 2027.

"I think that's a little bit like putting Christmas decorations up before Halloween," she joked. "We just got through this election, and we have a lot to accomplish."

A 'unique talent' nationally

The race for Kentucky governor attracted loads of attention nationally, in a year without a presidential election on the ballot. And Biden wasn't the only national figure to reach out to applaud Beshear.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore both congratulated the governor on social media, with Moore adding Beshear "has never forgotten who he fights for — the people of Kentucky. Every decision he makes is rooted in a mission to uplift and strengthen the people of his state."

It's a view shared by New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, chairman of the Democratic Governor's Association, which poured more than $13 million toward helping Beshear win reelection. Beshear is looked at as a "unique talent" among the country's 28 Democratic governors, he said, and many view him as a model on building consensus with constituents.

"I see it all the time — 'let's see how Andy's doing it, let's ask him what his secret is,'" Murphy said in an interview. "I think it's pretty clear. It's no secret at all. Andy's blocking out the national noise, he's obsessed with the kitchen table and he is natural leader, especially in times of crisis."

Murphy declined to speculate on what comes next for Beshear, whether it be a U.S. Senate bid or a seat in the White House, as vice president or president.

"I know one thing for sure. He's in the job of his lifetime," he said. "All he cares about is being governor of the commonwealth."

Running for national office is a different race, though, with a different set of voters. Beshear hasn't been as vocal about some areas that matter to the broader and more liberal U.S. Democratic base.

Democrat Adam Edelen, a former state auditor who faced Beshear for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in the 2019 primary, is a Beshear supporter. But he said the governor would likely need to shift his tone, or at least be more open on some issues, if he runs for a national office.

For instance, despite two major natural disasters that hit Kentucky during his first term, Beshear rarely discussed climate change while on the campaign trail, despite acknowledging it as a real threat.

"I think he would have to develop a message for a national audience that speaks to more robust leadership in an area like climate, that isn't afraid of some of the cultural issues that I think he's shied away as a political strategy to get reelected," Edelen said.

State Sen. Gerald Neal, D-Louisville, said he believes Beshear's popularity locally and nationally would bode well for future ambitions. He'd be "surprised if he doesn't make another move at some point."

“There are other and higher platforms for delivering good to the people of the United States," Neal said. "He qualifies for that. But I think that’s a decision he’s going to have to make, and we’ll have to see how things unfold.”

A lot of eyes will be on Beshear. But in the meantime, Beshear said he's keeping his focus on Kentucky.

"Our citizens don't wake up thinking about Trump or Biden. They wake up thinking about their job getting their kids fed, whether they can afford to take their parents to a doctor, whether they feel safe in their community, the education that their kids are getting. Those are the real everyday experiences of our people," he said Wednesday. "I think one reason that this administration has been successful is that's what we focused on every day, and not run after whatever issues they're arguing about in Washington, D.C."

Reach Phillip M. Bailey at pbailey@usatoday.com. Reach Matthew Glowicki at mglowicki@courier-journal.com. Reach Lucas Aulbach at laulbach@courier-journal.com.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky election: Andy Beshear could be national star for Democrats