Kentucky high school football predictions for every second-round playoff game

Jared Peck
·11 min read

The second round of the Kentucky high school football playoffs is where things get real.

As in, some real contenders in each of the KHSAA’s six football classes will see their seasons end.

One of the best second round games is right here in Lexington as Class A No. 4 Paris (10-1) heads to Sayre Athletic Complex to take on the No. 5 Spartans (11-0).

Other top 10 battles include Class 4A No. 6 Ashland Blazer at No. 1 Covington Catholic, Class 5A No. 9 Cooper at No. 3 Scott County and Class 6A No. 3 St. Xavier at No. 4 Trinity.

Here is a breakdown of one of the top games in each class along with my predictions for who will be playing in next week’s region championships across the state. Remember, next week’s brackets will be redrawn based on RPI. I try to predict those matchups here.

All games are Friday with times local to the host site. All rankings are from the KHSAA’s RPI Standings, which will be used to seed the east and west sides of each bracket next week. Cantrall Ratings are based on a 100-point scale.

Charlie Slabaugh (1) has caught 11 touchdown passes for undefeated Sayre this season.
Charlie Slabaugh (1) has caught 11 touchdown passes for undefeated Sayre this season.

Class A

No. 4 Paris (10-1) at No. 5 Sayre (11-0), 7:30 p.m.

Cantrall Ratings: Paris (55.6), Sayre (49.4).

Stat stuffers: Jayden Holman leads the Greyhounds’ rushing attack with 1,133 yards and 12 TDs while Elijah Webb and Jakari Ransom serve as all-purpose threats with each totaling more than 1,000 yards and double digit TDs. Sayre quarterback Luke Pennington topped 2,000 yards passing last week and has 42 TDs to prime targets Brock Coffman (952 yards, 19 TDs receiving) and Charlie Slabaugh (496 yards, 11 TDs receiving).

Common opponents: Both teams have blowout wins over Frankfort, Fairview and Nicholas County. Paris dominated both Eminence (55-12) and Ludlow (50-26) while Sayre eked out their home games against those teams (12-8 over Eminence and 14-0 over Ludlow).

Bottom line: Paris faced a much tougher schedule than the Spartans and that could prove the difference against a Sayre team that has just won the school’s first-ever district championship.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

▪ No. 13 Bethlehem (4-7) at No. 1 Kentucky Country Day (9-2) 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 7 Louisville Holy Cross (6-5) at No. 2 Campbellsville (9-1), 8 p.m.

▪ No. 8 Newport (8-3) at No. 11 Ludlow (7-4), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 19 Dayton (5-6) vs. No. 10 Newport Central Catholic (7-4) at Dixie Heights, 7 p.m.

▪ No. 17 Williamsburg (6-4) at No. 3 Pikeville (8-2), 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 23 Frankfort (4-7) at No. 6 Raceland (8-3), 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 12 Paintsville (6-5) at No. 9 Middlesboro (8-2) 7:30 p.m.

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West region finals: No. 10 Newport Central Catholic at No. 1 Kentucky Country Day; No. 8 Newport at No. 2 Campbellsville.

East region finals: No. 9 Middlesboro at No. 3 Pikeville; No. 6 Raceland at No. 4 Paris.

Class 2A

No. 10 Betsy Layne (10-1) at No. 20 Martin County (6-5), 7:30 p.m.

Cantrall Ratings: Betsy Layne (32.7), Martin County (41.7).

Stat stuffers: The Bobcats are led by quarterback Carter Parsons (1,718 yards, 21 TDs passing) and running back Andrew McCutcheon (1,510 yards, 21 TDs rushing). Martin County’s run-heavy attack features Brock Messer (1,116, 12 TDs) with equal portions Aiden Horn (626 yards, 8 TDs) and Madden Miller (603 yards, 6 TDs).

Common opponents: Betsy Layne defeated, but had more trouble with Knott County Central (50-22), Pike County Central (32-21) and Prestonsburg (33-14) than Martin did in wins of 42-6, 43-3 and 44-0 over those teams, respectively. Floyd Central lost to Martin 55-16 and Betsy Layne 41-8.

Bottom line: Betsy Layne is coming off the first playoff win in program history. These two appear equally matched, so home field could help the Cardinals. The turnover battle will be key.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

▪ No. 7 Crittenden County (7-4) vs. No. 1 Owensboro Catholic (11-0) at Kentucky Wesleyan, 7 p.m.

▪ No. 11 Murray (7-4) at No. 2 Mayfield (9-1), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 13 Monroe County (6-5) at No. 3 Lexington Christian (10-1), 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 27 Metcalfe County (3-8) at No. 5 Green County (9-2), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 18 Breathitt County (6-5) at No. 4 Beechwood (10-1), 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 17 Leslie County (7-4) at No. 6 Somerset (8-3) 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 22 Floyd Central (6-5), at No. 8 Shelby Valley (8-3) 7 p.m.

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West region finals: No. 5 Green County at No. 1 Owensboro Catholic; No. 3 Lexington Christian at No. 2 Mayfield.

East region finals: No. 20 Martin County at No. 4 Beechwood; No. 8 Shelby Valley at No. 6 Somerset.

Mercer County quarterback Thaddeus Mays (1) has rushed for 16 touchdowns and passed for 12 this season.
Mercer County quarterback Thaddeus Mays (1) has rushed for 16 touchdowns and passed for 12 this season.

Class 3A

No. 16 Central (6-5) at No. 4 Mercer County (10-1), 7:30 p.m.

Cantrall Ratings: Central (80.7), Mercer County (66.6).

Stat stuffers: Running back Cortez Stone (1,576 yards, 18 TDs rushing) carries much of the load, but Central can fling it too with quarterback Steven Smith (1,082 yards, 13 TDs passing). Mercer County has a dual-threat in QB Thaddeus Mays (1,373 yards, 12 TDs passing; 850 yards, 16 TDs rushing) while Denim Griffieth (898 yards, 14 TDs rushing) gets most of the other carries.

Common opponents: Mercer had more trouble in wins over Casey County (34-21) and LaRue County (35-19) than Central did in wins of 48-6 and 50-7, respectively.

Bottom line: Central began the season 1-4 thanks to a taxing schedule that included Louisville Class 6A powers Manual and St. Xavier. That kind of scheduling targets one purpose, winning a state championship. The Titans have their best team in many years. They will need their best effort to take down the Yellow Jackets.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

▪ No. 25 Elizabethtown (4-7) at No. 1 Christian Academy-Louisville (10-1), 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 8 Glasgow (9-2) at No. 2 Hart County (11-0), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 6 Franklin-Simpson (9-2) at No. 5 Union County (10-1), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 3 Bell County (10-1) at No. 12 Belfry (8-3), 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 11 Lloyd Memorial (10-1) at No. 14 East Carter (8-2), 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 13 Lawrence County (8-3) at No. 7 Rockcastle County (10-1), 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 19 Russell (7-4) at No. 9 Lexington Catholic (7-4), 8 p.m.

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West region finals: No. 16 Central at No. 1 Christian Academy-Louisville; No. 5 Union County at No. 2 Hart County.

East region finals: No. 12 Belfry at No. 7 Rockcastle County; No. 11 Lloyd Memorial at No. 9 Lexington Catholic.

Class 4A

No. 6 Ashland Blazer (10-1) at No. 1 Covington Catholic (11-0), 7:30 p.m.

Cantrall Ratings: Ashland Blazer (80.8), Covington Catholic (86.5).

Stat stuffers: The Tomcats have QB LaBryant Strader (1,608 yards, 18 TDs passing) and a running back committee led by Braxton Jennings (729 yards, 15 TDs), Atayveon Thomas (704 yards, 6 TDs) and Cameron Davis (457 yards, 6 TDs). The Colonels’ Evan Pitzer can throw (2,141 yards, 26 TDs) and run (456 yards, 9 TDs) and has Owen Leen (603 yards, 10 TDs rushing) in the backfield. Braylon Miller (674 yards, 6 TDs) and Kentucky commit Willie Rodriguez (319 yards, 8 TDs) lead the receivers.

Common opponents: Both teams swept Greenup County, Harrison County and Simon Kenton, but Ashland had more trouble with the Pioneers (a 49-42 win on Oct. 27). CovCath routed Simon Kenton 50-12 on Sept. 1.

Bottom line: Both the Tomcats and Colonels moved into Class 4A this year thanks to the latest KHSAA realignment. CovCath came down from 5A where it reached three straight state finals (2017-2019) and won two. Ashland won the 3A title in 2020. Slight edge to the Colonels.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

▪ No. 10 North Oldham (7-4) at No. 2 Franklin County (11-0) 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 26 Warren East (6-5) at No. 5 Paducah Tilghman (11-0) 7 p.m.

▪ No. 17 Spencer County (6-5) at No. 11 DeSales (9-2) 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 13 Logan County (8-3) at No. 21 Bardstown (7-4) 7:30p.m.

▪ No. 12 Perry County Central (7-4) at No. 3 Boyle County (11-0) 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 7 Taylor County (9-2) at No. 4 Corbin (11-0) 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 15 Boyd County (6-5) at No. 8 Johnson Central (8-3) 7:30 p.m.

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West region finals: No. 13 Logan County at No. 2 Franklin County; No. 11 DeSales at No. 5 Paducah Tilghman.

East region finals: No. 8 Johnson Central at No. 1 Covington Catholic; No. 4 Corbin at No. 3 Boyle County.

Scott County’s Ellis Huguely (11) was wrapped up by a swarm of Lexington Catholic defenders during their matchup earlier this season. Scott County hosts Cooper on Friday night.
Scott County’s Ellis Huguely (11) was wrapped up by a swarm of Lexington Catholic defenders during their matchup earlier this season. Scott County hosts Cooper on Friday night.

Class 5A

No. 9 Cooper (9-2) at No. 3 Scott County (9-2), 7:30 p.m.

Cantrall Ratings: Cooper (83.3), Scott County (87.7)

Stat stuffers: Cooper QB Cam O’Hara (2,702 yards, 39 TDs passing) has two top receivers, Isaiah Johnson (1,218 yards, 20 TDs) and Austin Alexander (823 yards, 12 TDs). The Jags can run, too with Keagan Maher (844 yards 13 TDs). Scott County’s wing-T attack has fullback Jacob Fryman (798 yards, 16 TDs rushing) at its heart. Thomas Feickert (614 yards, 7 TDs) and Ellis Huguely (598 yards, 6 TDs) are options two and three.

Common opponents: Both Cooper and Scott County swept Collins, Conner and Great Crossing in convincing wins. Scott County allowed more points than Cooper in each contest.

Bottom line: The Jaguars will benefit from having played Scott County in last year’s first round, but it’s difficult to pick them on the road in this one. Still, Cooper has a solid shot.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

▪ No. 2 South Warren (9-2) at No. 8 Owensboro (7-4), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 11 Graves County (8-3) at No. 4 Bowling Green (8-3), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 28 Butler (4-7) at No. 7 Atherton (10-1), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 24 Fairdale (6-5) at No. 10 Grayson County (10-1), 6:30 p.m.

▪ No. 18 Dixie Heights (5-6) at No. 1 Highlands (10-1), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 25 Pulaski County (4-7) at No. 6 Southwestern (8-3), 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 14 North Laurel (7-4) at No. 16 Madison Southern (7-4), 7:30 p.m.

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West region finals: No. 10 Grayson County at No. 2 South Warren; No. 7 Atherton at No. 4 Bowling Green.

East region finals: No. 16 Madison Southern at No. 1 Highlands; No. 6 Southwestern at No. 3 Scott County.

Tates Creek’s Logan Julian (34) tried to bring down Bryan Station’s Kalen “Jaws” Washington during their regular season game at Tates Creek on Sept. 23. Bryan Station took advantage of several Commodores mistakes to win 41-0.
Tates Creek’s Logan Julian (34) tried to bring down Bryan Station’s Kalen “Jaws” Washington during their regular season game at Tates Creek on Sept. 23. Bryan Station took advantage of several Commodores mistakes to win 41-0.

Class 6A

No. 6 Bryan Station (8-3) vs. No. 11 Tates Creek (8-3) at Lafayette, 6:30 p.m.

Cantrall Ratings: Bryan Station (88.0), Tates Creek (70.3).

Stat stuffers: Bryan Station’s dual-threat QB Trenton Cutwright (1,576 yards, 18 TDs passing; 584 yards, 6 TDs rushing) and Kalen “Jaws” Washington (912 yards, 12 TDs rushing) lead the offense. JT Haskins Jr. is a leading receiver and top defensive back. Tates Creek QB Andrew Witherington’s (2,111 yards, 20 TDs passing, 395 yards, 11 TDs rushing) weapons include running back Marquevion Smith (737 yards, 7 TDs rushing; 313 yards 4 TDs receiving) and wideout Luke Cooper (667 yards, 9 TDs receiving).

Common opponents: Both teams lost big to Frederick Douglass and swept George Rogers Clark, Henry Clay and Lafayette with decisive wins. Tates Creek lost 42-6 to Ballard early in the season while Bryan Station beat the Bruins 28-21.

Bottom line: The Defenders shut out Tates Creek 41-0 on Sept. 15. If the Commodores are to reverse that result, they will need to get pressure on Cutwright and avoid the turnovers (three) that killed promising drives the first time around.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

▪ No. 5 Ballard (8-3) at No. 2 Manual (9-2), 7:30 p.m.

▪ No. 3 St. Xavier (8-3) at No. 4 Trinity (8-3), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 21 McCracken County (5-6) at No. 13 Henderson County (5-6), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 17 Daviess County (6-5) at No. 16 Central Hardin (6-5), 8 p.m.

▪ No. 12 Fern Creek (7-4) at No. 1 Male (10-1), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 8 Bullitt East (9-2) at No. 7 Ryle (7-4), 7 p.m.

▪ No. 22 Madison Central (4-7) at No. 9 Frederick Douglass (6-4), 7 p.m.

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West region* finals: No. 16 Central Hardin at No. 2 Manual; No. 13 Henderson County at No. 3 St. Xavier.

East region* finals: No. 8 Bullitt East at No. 6 Bryan Station; No. 9 Frederick Douglass at No. 1 Male.

*In 2023, the KHSAA has Class 6A District 4, which includes Male and Bullitt East, aligned with the eastern half of the class. District 5 is with the western half.