'Kentucky will lose clout': How McConnell's decision to leave leadership will impact state

When Kentucky House Speaker David Osborne describes U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell as "the most consequential Kentucky leader in modern history," it's tough for members of either party to disagree.

McConnell, who announced Wednesday he plans to step down from his leadership post in November, has left an impact on laws, spending and infrastructure that can be felt in all 50 states.

But his impact in Kentucky is unique. He's won seven terms in the U.S. Senate representing the Bluegrass State, with plans to serve out the remainder of his term as a senator, and has had a strong influence in the commonwealth.

Osborne is well aware of that influence, as is state Senate President Robert Stivers, a fellow Republican. Stivers, who's led his own chamber since 2013, told reporters Kentucky "won’t have the influence we’ve had" in the nation's capital when McConnell leaves his post later this year — and his clout extends beyond politics.

The University of Louisville has key ties to the senator. Its McConnell Center has been open for more than 30 years, with a goal of "connecting leaders of today with Kentucky's leaders of tomorrow." And Dewey Clayton, a political science professor at the university, said the senator's move will be felt in the halls of Congress as well as in his home state.

"McConnell's been in office for quite some time and had a huge impact not just on national politics, but also state and local politics here in Kentucky," he said. "... When McConnell first became a senator here, Democrats were in control. Democrats were in control at the national level, and they were also in control at the state level. And I think McConnell has steadily been one of the shakers and movers behind the scenes ...

"I think McConnell saw nationally where the Republican Party was going, and I think he moved the state in that direction, as well."

McConnell, who turned 82 last week and cited his age as a key reason behind the move, has served as the GOP's Senate leader since 2007. He's been minority leader in recent years, but University of Kentucky political scientist professor Stephen Voss said even outside the majority, the senator has been able to use his position to push legislation in certain directions — and tout his leverage later on.

As McConnell steps down from his leadership post, Voss said Kentucky is losing a lot of influence in the Senate.

His impact can be felt beyond his post, though. Voss said an astonishing number of his students have gotten involved with government work because of McConnell’s status.

“Losing McConnell means losing job opportunities for young Republicans from Kentucky,” Voss said.

John McCarthy, who represents Kentucky on the Republican National Committee, met McConnell when he worked on the senator's 1990 reelection campaign. They had a mission then to elect more county judges, McCarthy said, a goal in line with McConnell's efforts during former President Donald Trump's time in office to install more Republican judges across the country.

McCarthy said McConnell has worked during his time in leadership to ensure Kentucky stayed in line to land key federal investments, including money to fight opioid addiction and funds for projects such as the Parklands of Floyds Fork, and he's stayed involved with state politics during his time in Washington, D.C.

"He's helped recruit candidates for both the state House (and) state Senate, constitutional officers," McCarthy said. "He's had an absolute front seat to a lot of the most significant political dynamics that have taken place in the commonwealth."

Mike Ward, who represented Jefferson County in U.S. Congress in the 1990s, was a young Democrat when he met McConnell as the pair worked their way up on the Louisville political scene in the 1970s.

McConnell was "a powerful member" in Washington, D.C., even before taking over as leader, Ward acknowledged — but the Democrat said McConnell shied away from leadership at a defining moment.

McConnell's icy relationship with Trump is no secret. He worked with Trump during his term to reshape the U.S. judiciary, with three conservative Supreme Court justices appointed during his four years in office, but Ward said his decision to not recommend impeachment following the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection attempt paved the way for Trump to seek office again in 2024.

"Mitch McConnell used the excuse of Donald Trump not being in office to avoid impeaching him and keeping him for running for president again because he, Mitch McConnell, wouldn't do the trial before Trump left office," Ward said.

"That encapsulates Mitch McConnell's view of public service. He wouldn't work to save us from the prospect of another Trump presidency, but he worked his heart out with Trump to try to take health care away from half a million Kentuckians without a replacement," Ward said, pointing toward efforts in 2017 to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

McConnell was one of the last Republicans in power willing to fight against Trump — the two haven't spoken since the Jan. 6 riot three years ago — and has increasingly struggled to lead the Senate, highlighted by recent conflict with Sen. Rand Paul, a fellow Kentuckian, and an unsuccessful 2022 bid by Sen. Rick Scott to take on the leadership role.

As Trump has consolidated dominance in the Republican Party as its overwhelming front-runner for the 2024 presidential nomination, Voss said McConnell's decision is another step by Senate Republicans into the Trump era. The former president gets closer each day to claiming the GOP nomination, and said last week he isn't sure if he'd be able to work with McConnell if he won the White House again.

Ward said he believes McConnell, recently rated as the least popular politician in the country in a Monmouth University poll, saw the writing on the wall and announced his plans now instead of having his leadership post taken from him by fellow Republican senators.

"He knew when to fold. He was going to get beat in November. I guess he figures the sooner he announces it, the better. Just get it done," Ward said. "An 82-year-old doesn't give up a position of power like this any sooner than an 82-year-old gives up their driver's license."

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said McConnell has been consistent with his beliefs and policies. With that consistency, Sabato said McConnell knew when to compromise to do what’s best for the country.

But as politics have changed, Sabato said he thinks McConnell stepped down because “we’re in the age of Trump, and McConnell knows he doesn’t belong here.”

“Kentucky will lose clout now that McConnell is stepping down,” Sabato said.

This story may be updated.

Reach Lucas Aulbach at laulbach@courier-journal.com. Reach Hannah Pinski at hpinski@courier-journal.com.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Mitch McConnell's decision to leave leadership will impact Kentucky