Kentucky-Mississippi State predictions: Why UK needs get its swagger back

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game against Mississippi State might play out in Starkville on Saturday.

Getting the swag back

It would be an oversimplification to attribute Kentucky’s recent defensive struggles to mentality alone, but defensive coordinator Brad White made it clear a confidence boost is needed after three consecutive losses.

“There were times (against Tennessee) that maybe the swarming nature that we played with early drifted,” White said. “Obviously, some of the tempo may have had to do with that, but some of that too stems from momentum and confidence. You play faster when you’ve got a little bit of swagger to your step. So, we need to continue to get that back.”

Defensive players echoed that sentiment.

“I just feel like we’ve just got the little chip or burden off our shoulders,” freshman safety Ty Bryant said. “We have to go in, just play fast, have fun. I feel like the fun aspect since we’ve been losing has been lacking a little bit. If we just get back to having fun and playing the game we all love, we’re going to be fine.”

“Everybody just be so uptight, so serious sometimes,” senior outside linebacker J.J. Weaver said. “It’s fun at the end of the day. Football should be fun. We should be blessed to put on cleats and shoulder pads, so just have fun with it.”

Weaver said he tried cracking jokes in practice this week to lighten the mood. Of course, the easiest way for Kentucky’s defense to rebuild its confidence is win.

“There’s plays that you have to make to win the game,” White said. “There were some opportunities for us to make them, and we didn’t. So, what we have to do is just try to continue to stay confident in the fact we can make them when those plays arise. Because you don’t know which one it is. You don’t know which play call it is.”

Reinforcements coming?

With four games left in the regular season, Kentucky has reached the point in the schedule where many of the players headed for redshirt seasons can play in games without losing a year of eligibility.

NCAA rules allow players to appear in up to four regular season games while still redshirting. Five freshmen have already passed the four-game threshold: wide receiver Anthony Brown-Stephens, safety Ty Bryant, linebacker Jayvant Brown, tight end Khamari Anderson and long snapper Walker Himebauch.

Defensive back Nasir Addison (3), defensive lineman Tommy Ziesmer (2), defensive back Avery Stuart (1) and defensive lineman Kendrick Gilbert (1) have already made their debuts, meaning they will not be available for all the remaining games. At least one freshman, defensive back Jaremiah Anglin, is out for the season with an injury. Other freshmen yet to play in a game may be unavailable due to undisclosed injuries, but UK coach Mark Stoops did confirm the staff has plans to try to play some of the redshirting freshmen in the weeks ahead if circumstances allow.

Injury report

As normal, Mark Stoops had no updates on the status of injured players this week. Safety Jordan Lovett and offensive guard Kenneth Horsey did not play against Tennessee. Both players were listed on the depth chart Monday with an “or” between their name and the player who replaced them in the starting lineup.

Lovett left the Missouri loss early with an injury, but Horsey’s absence against Tennessee was a surprise. The Wildcats’ left guard had returned from a five-game absence due to a leg injury against Missouri and was announced on the Kroger Field video board as a starter before the Tennessee game but did not participate in warmups. After the loss, Stoops said Horsey had not reaggravated his previous injury but did not provide specifics on what the new issue was.

Final predictions

Kentucky 24, Mississippi State 14: It feels dangerous to ever pick Kentucky to win in Starkville given the program’s historic struggles there, but this Mississippi State team might be the worst Stoops has faced on the road in his tenure. There was enough offensive progress against Tennessee to hope for a strong final month of the regular season, but if Kentucky does lose in Starkville it will be time to worry about missing a bowl game all together.

MVP—Devin Leary: If Tennessee was the game Leary reminded fans why he entered the season with so much hype, this feels like the week to prove that performance was not a fluke. Mississippi State’s pass defense has struggled for much of the year, meaning their should be opportunities for another big game from Kentucky’s quarterback.

The last word

Offensive coordinator Liam Coen on future opponents trying to limit UK’s rushing attack like Tennessee did:

“I think maybe that gave us or gave opponents a little more respect for the pass game, for our quarterback, for our protection and for our skill players. Tennessee walked up first play of the game with nine in the box and said, here we go. We kind of thought that was going to happen, but maybe not that type. It took us a few series to get going, but ultimately we did execute the pass game. That helps us moving forward.”

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