Kentucky or North Carolina? An expert on both teams tells us who might have the advantage.

The stage is set for a college basketball classic Saturday in Atlanta.

Kentucky and North Carolina meet again, this time with both blue bloods boasting two of the sport’s most electric offenses. The Wildcats and Tar Heels have also endured defensive struggles to start the season, and that could be the recipe for a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle that puts plenty of points on the scoreboard.

Rivals.com analyst David Sisk is in the unique position of covering both programs, and the longtime coach regularly breaks down key plays for each team on his X (formerly known as Twitter) account, providing valuable insight after games.

Sisk talked at length with the Herald-Leader this week about Saturday’s matchup, which, on paper, looks about as close to a toss-up as it gets, two evenly matched teams with similar profiles to this point in the 2023-24 campaign.

“I think it’s an intriguing game. I really do,” Sisk said. “Because I think they’re a lot alike. They have enough differences that are notable. But you’ve got two teams that can score the basketball and like to play fast. I think both teams can do things to exploit the other. I think it’s a high-scoring game that comes down to the last couple of plays.”

Kentucky and North Carolina have provided plenty of entertainment in recent years. There have been two Elite Eight matchups in John Calipari’s tenure alone — with one victory for each side — and the 103-100 Kentucky victory in the CBS Sports Classic seven years ago was a regular-season masterpiece.

With Kentucky averaging 90.6 points per game, Carolina averaging 85.1 points per game, both teams preferring to push the pace and neither showing much in the way of consistent defense, this edition of the CBS Sports Classic has a chance to live up to the excitement level of that one.

As similar as these teams appear to be, there are some differences. Where might UK be able to find an advantage over UNC, and vice versa? Here’s a closer look at some key points to watch Saturday evening.

Keys for Kentucky

Both teams have similar defensive efficiency numbers — UNC is 56th nationally, Kentucky 58th in the Torvik ratings, for instance — and both have endured stretches of porous D, but there’s a possibility that Kentucky could have an advantage here. That’s partly because Aaron Bradshaw is finally in the UK lineup.

The 7-foot-1 freshman gives the Wildcats something they haven’t had in a while — a legitimate rim-protecting threat. Sisk noted that UK was roundly criticized for its defense last season, and a lot of that criticism was directed toward Oscar Tshiebwe, who was not much of a shot-blocking threat inside. It left the Cats open to quick guards who could get past the first layer of defense on the perimeter.

“When they played teams that played three guards that were smaller and could penetrate — number one, they had trouble keeping them in front — but then when they got in the lane, they didn’t have to worry much about shot-blockers,” Sisk said. “I think that was a big issue last year.”

Bradshaw changes that. (So could Ugonna Onyenso, a promising shot-blocker who Calipari has hinted might return from injury this weekend.)

The combo of one of those shot-blockers plus the mentality of UK’s young guards is likely to bring more positive results, and Bradshaw’s performance against Penn showed the first signs of that.

“The guards are aggressive defensively,” Sisk said. “They’re going to get out and harass the ball-handler. They’re going to play over screens. They’ve got that type of mentality. They’re funneling the dribblers and guys off cuts — take away that 3, funnel them into the lane, funnel them into rim-protection. I think that’s a huge issue defensively, and that’s something they didn’t have two weeks ago.”

That combo — overly aggressive guards on the perimeter and a talented shot-blocker waiting behind them — was a hallmark of some of Calipari’s best UK teams early in his tenure.

“It’s a perfect mesh,” Sisk said. “If I’ve got a guy who can block shots, the last thing I want is slow, unathletic guards out there playing off and letting guys have jump shots. It does you no good to have a shot-blocker.”

Sisk also thinks Kentucky has more athleticism than North Carolina, especially once the teams start getting into their benches. UK is likely to bring Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham and Bradshaw — three possible NBA lottery picks — off the bench in the first few minutes of each half, throwing a different but just-as-talented look at the Tar Heels early.

“There are some guys that North Carolina will play that just don’t match up well athletically,” Sisk said. “I think, one through eight, Kentucky is more athletic. So that could be a thing.”

And a major key could be UNC’s preferred style playing right into Kentucky’s hands.

Like UK, the Tar Heels want to push the pace. Sisk said UNC often “got caught standing around” last season, leading to “lethargic basketball” and underwhelming results. (The preseason No. 1 Tar Heels missed the 2023 NCAA Tournament, remember.)

“Hubert Davis did not want to go back to that,” he said. “So they’ve really stressed running.”

And they have. That’s where they’re best, but it’s also where UK could beat them.

Sisk noted that UNC used a press to get back into recent games against Florida State and UConn. The Tar Heels were down double digits against FSU, sped up the game by pressing “and really found something,” said Sisk — going on a major run against a Seminoles team with no true point guard and putting the game away with that pressure.

Against UConn, they tried the same thing, which worked long enough to get them back into the game, but once the Huskies settled down and adjusted, they were OK. UConn won 87-76.

“I don’t think North Carolina can press Kentucky and beat them,” Sisk said. “I would be amazed if they give them an opportunity to do it. Their guards are too good. … And Kentucky doesn’t turn the ball over. So North Carolina is going to have to guard them in the halfcourt. And they’re not good at that. Right now, they switch everything 1 through 4, and they get caught in a lot of mismatches.”

Sisk says Davis has been switching everyone but All-America center Armando Bacot, and for a team with smaller guards — RJ Davis is listed at 6-0, Elliot Cadeau at 6-1 — trying that could be a major issue against Kentucky’s numerous offensive weapons.

If the Heels continue to switch — and perhaps even if they don’t — there could be mismatches galore for the Wildcats, with guys like Antonio Reeves (6-6), Justin Edwards (6-8), Adou Thiero (6-8) and Tre Mitchell (6-9) being defended by a 6-footer.

And part of the reason UNC goes to the press is its inability to defend in the halfcourt. The Heels “press by necessity” to get back into games, says Sisk, who predicts that won’t be a “sustainable” approach against these Wildcats.

Another symptom of UNC’s defensive woes: huge games from opposing players.

In one recent three-game stretch, the Heels gave up 34 points to Villanova’s Eric Dixon, 34 points to Arkansas’ Tramon Mark and 37 points to Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht, who could have gone for even more had he not been injured in the final minutes.

“So they’ve not been winning one-on-one battles either,” Sisk said.

So while defense has been a shortcoming of both teams, this could be a particularly bad matchup for UNC.

“If they’re looking at the same thing I’m looking at, I think all the switches have gotten them into trouble,” Sisk said.

Keys for North Carolina

Of course, the defensive struggles do go both ways. And there will be areas for UNC to exploit, as well.

The Heels’ big three of Davis, Bacot and Harrison Ingram are all averaging at least 15 points per game and have each scored at least eight in every game this season. Davis, particularly, has been on a heater of late.

Sisk said he considers the 6-foot senior to be the best guard in the ACC this season. He’s averaging 21.0 points per game — tops in that league among guards — and his recent results have been outstanding.

Over his past four games, Davis is averaging 27.5 points, shooting 14-for-33 on 3-pointers (42.4%) and making 30 of 30 free throws. He also has 10 assists and just four turnovers in that span.

Bacot is still a double-double machine (15.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game) and Ingram — a transfer from Stanford — has been Mr. Reliable, scoring double figures in every game and shooting 46.3% on 3-pointers.

Sisk said Ingram is often used in isolation and backdown situations where UNC puts Bacot on the other block and goes through the 6-7, 235-pound transfer. “He’s been a great find for them.”

Those three are going to do their damage, especially in an up-tempo, high-scoring game.

Who else is able to help will be a major key for Carolina.

“I’m going to be looking more than anything at guys that get hot,” Sisk said. “I know this is not a lot of X’s and O’s, but you’ve got a lot of really good guards out there on both teams.”

One to watch for UNC is Notre Dame transfer Cormac Ryan, a 6-5 guard in his fifth year of college. Ryan was Notre Dame’s second-leading scorer last season and made 163 of 448 3-pointers (36.4%) over his past three years there. At UNC, he’s averaging 10.4 points per game, but he’s shooting just 25.5% on 3s, and 64% of his shot attempts have been from long range.

“So, not efficient. And he’s streaky,” Sisk said. “He can get on a heater. Does that happen? If he gets on a heater, then you’ve got that fourth scorer. And North Carolina is a different team. … If they can’t find a fourth or fifth guy to get points, I don’t know that they can continuously score with Kentucky this entire game. Because Kentucky is going to keep coming at you and scoring.”

UNC’s fifth-leading scorer is Cadeau, a freshman point guard who has hit double figures just once in nine games — 15 points against Northern Iowa — but can impact the game in other ways. He has 29 assists and just four turnovers over his past six games. No one else on the team is averaging more than five points per game. (UK has eight players averaging at least 7.8 points per game and six in double figures.)

While Bradshaw does give Kentucky a shot-blocking threat, there’s little doubt that UNC should be the more physical team in the post. And that might pose the biggest challenge for the Cats.

Sisk noted that the two teams are pretty evenly matched across the board offensively but pointed out one key difference: free throws.

UNC is seventh nationally in free throws made per 100 possessions. UK is 262nd in that stat.

The Tar Heels are getting 10 more chances per game than Kentucky at the line — 28.0 free throw attempts per game for UNC, just 17.9 for the Cats — and Carolina is making 75.8% of those shots (UK is at 72.7%.). Bacot is averaging 8.0 free throws per game. Tre Mitchell is the top Cat in that category, with just 3.4 attempts per game.

Bacot and Ingram are strong inside. UNC’s guards like to get into the lane — the crafty Davis is averaging 4.6 free throws per game and shooting 95.3% there — and this is an area where the more veteran Carolina team might be able to take advantage of the young Cats.

Bradshaw vs. Bacot

The matchup of the game is clearly UNC’s Armando Bacot vs. UK’s Aaron Bradshaw.

That might be unfair to Bradshaw — he’s played only 42 college minutes and has been practicing for just a little more than two weeks — but the freshman completely changes what Kentucky can do near the rim, especially on defense. And Bacot is the kind of big — a preseason All-American — who can cause problems for any opponent.

Going back to Bradshaw’s defense, Sisk noted that many of UK’s specific defensive metrics are outside the top 100 nationally.

“That’s not where John Calipari’s teams are used to playing,” he said. “They play fast, they get out, they try to pressure, but when you don’t have rim protection inside, that’s a huge issue — people get into the lane and they can score. He’s going to help immensely on that end. You already saw some of that Saturday with some blocked shots that, I think in other games, would have been scores.”

And Bradshaw doesn’t really change UK much offensively. Sisk noted that Calipari had him in a horns set Saturday against Penn, and he made a 3-pointer. He’s been in the dunker’s spot. He can run the floor. UK has played him inside-out with Mitchell, with positive results.

“I think they complement each other with their skill sets,” Sisk said of UK’s frontcourt duo.

Fans might balk at the Wildcats’ 3-point attempts going down in recent games, but Sisk says that was likely to happen anyway.

“Opponents have tried to run them off the 3-point line, because they’ve shot so well,” Sisk said. “So I think with all the 3s — that was probably going to slow down anyway … whether Bradshaw was there or not.”

(And UK is still averaging 19.3 3-point attempts over its last three games.)

Bradshaw brings a lot of positives. But he’s still a relative unknown.

“Here’s Aaron Bradshaw in his third game, going up against Armando Bacot,” Sisk said

Bacot — a McDonald’s All-American alongside guys like Tyrese Maxey, Anthony Edwards and Oscar Tshiebwe back in 2019 — will be making his 141st college start Saturday.

The 6-11, 240-pound veteran will turn 24 years old before the start of the NCAA Tournament and has been effective for his entire college career. While Bradshaw is longer, leaner and a better jumper, Bacot excels in a below-the-rim fashion — playing like a taller Tshiebwe in a lot of ways — and he’s developed his craft from a college standpoint over the past few years.

Bradshaw has the length and athleticism to be a great help defender, stopper in space and rim-protector, but things could get interesting if he’s one-on-one with Bacot on the block. And if there’s foul trouble — or Bradshaw needs a breather or Calipari throws different looks at Bacot — how will Mitchell or another Wildcat do against the uber-experienced post player?

Bacot has shown a penchant for drawing fouls, and he’s shooting a career-best 78.6% on free throws this season. Still, his numbers from the floor are down — 51.0% on field goals after shooting 57.7% over his previous three seasons — and Sisk said the fan chatter has centered on “what’s wrong?” with the UNC big man.

“He’s had some games where he just can’t score around the rim, where he doesn’t have any lift,” Sisk said, adding that there have been times where he “doesn’t look right” on the court.

Bacot should be fresh, though. UNC hasn’t played since that loss to UConn on Dec. 5.

Best bet for UK vs. UNC?

Sisk declined to give a specific prediction on the outcome of the game, but he’s expecting an offensive showcase.

“This is going to be an up and down pace,” he said. “Every Kentucky game and every North Carolina game, I would take the over. And I’d certainly take the over here.”

Sisk projects a high-scoring game that comes down to two or three possessions at the end with a final score for both teams in the area of the 80s. Which blue blood will come out on top? Whoever makes best use of the ball at the end.

“It comes down to that: who makes a play and who doesn’t.”

Next game

No. 14 Kentucky vs. No. 9 North Carolina

What: CBS Sports Classic

When: Saturday at about 5:30 p.m. (following a game between Ohio State and UCLA that starts at 3 p.m. on the same court)

Where: State Farm Arena in Atlanta

TV: CBS-27

Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1

Records: Kentucky 7-2, North Carolina 7-2

Series: North Carolina leads 25-17

Last meeting: Kentucky won 98-69 on Dec. 17, 2021, at the CBS Sports Classic in Las Vegas

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