How Kentucky and Vanderbilt football teams match up — with a game prediction
How the Kentucky Wildcats (3-0, 0-0 SEC) and the Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2, 0-0 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Quarterbacks
▪ Kentucky’s Devin Leary (855 passing yards, 61.7% completions, eight touchdowns, three interceptions) played well in last week’s 35-3 win over Akron. The North Carolina State transfer, a 6-foot-1, 217-pound super-senior from Sicklerville, New Jersey, completed 16 of 26 passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Leary’s performance was the 15th time in the Mark Stoops coaching era that a UK QB went over 300 passing yards in a game.
▪ Vanderbilt’s AJ Swann leads the SEC in passing yards (1,101), passing touchdowns (11) and interceptions thrown (four). In last week’s 40-37 loss at UNLV, the 6-3, 228-pound sophomore went 17-of-35 passing for 335 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. A White, Georgia, product, Swann has completed 57.9% of his throws so far in 2023, which is slightly below the 58.1% he completed last season as a true freshman. Swann missed Vanderbilt’s streak-busting 24-21 upset of Kentucky in 2022 in Lexington due to injury.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Running backs
▪ Kentucky’s Ray Davis was one of the stars of last season’s UK-Vandy game — while playing for the Commodores. The 5-10, 216-pound San Francisco product ran for 129 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries. After finishing last season at Vanderbilt with 1,042 rushing yards, Davis graduate-transferred to UK. Through three games in blue, Davis has been terrific. He is averaging 7.2 yards a carry and has run for 236 yards and three touchdowns and has caught nine passes for 143 yards and two TDs. Demie Sumo-Karngbaye, another transfer from North Carolina State, carried four times for 58 yards and a touchdown vs. Akron.
▪ Speedy Patrick Smith, a 5-9, 185-pound junior, leads Vanderbilt in rushing with 200 yards on 40 carries. The product of Egg Harbor Township, New Jersey, ran five times for 5 yards vs. UK last season but caught a pass for 14 yards. True freshman Sedrick Alexander (131 rushing yards, two TDs, 4.2 yards per carry) has shown promise.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Wide receivers
▪ Kentucky slot receiver Tayvion Robinson, a super-senior who transferred from Virginia Tech, leads the Wildcats in receptions (14), receiving yards (260) and receiving touchdowns (three). UK sophomores Barion Brown and Dane Key had quiet games vs. Akron. Brown, the 6-1, 174-pound Nashville product, had two catches for 19 yards on five targets. Key, a homegrown 6-3, 195-pound product of Frederick Douglass High School, had no receptions on three targets. It was the first time in Key’s 16 college games that he did not catch at least one pass.
▪ Vanderbilt’s wide-receiving corps is one of the SEC’s best. Senior Will Sheppard caught the game-winning TD vs. Kentucky last season, an 8-yard reception with 32 seconds left. This year, the 6-3, 198-pound senior from Mandeville, Louisiana, leads the SEC in catches (25) and receiving TDs (six). Sophomore Jayden McGowan has 23 catches for 295 yards. True freshman London Humphreys has brought big-play capacity to Vandy. The 6-3, 186-pound Nashville product is averaging 29.6 yards on nine receptions and has three TDs. Junior Quincy Skinner caught a 40-yard pass on fourth-and-9 with 36 seconds left in last season’s game with UK to set up Sheppard’s game-winning score.
Advantage: Vanderbilt.
Tight ends
▪ Kentucky redshirt sophomore Jordan Dingle had a breakout game vs. Akron, catching four passes for 89 yards. The only drawback to the 6-4, 238-pound Bowling Green product’s performance was that, after making a spectacular one-handed grab that yielded a 59-yard gain, he lost a fumble while fighting for yards. Sophomore Josh Kattus caught two passes last week (on five targets) and scored his first college touchdown from 18 yards out.
▪ Vanderbilt’s Justin Ball, a 6-6, 247-pound redshirt senior, has caught seven passes for 52 yards and a touchdown. Logan Kyle, a 6-3, 244-pound senior, has two receptions for 16 yards.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Offensive line
▪ Kentucky redshirt sophomore center Jager Burton had a rough go vs. Akron with at least two bad snaps and as many costly penalties. If UK sticks with him, the 6-4, 307-pound Frederick Douglass product needs a clean showing in Nashville. Kentucky continues to use both incumbent starter Jeremy Flax and USC transfer Courtland Ford at right tackle. “We’ll see who plays the best this week in practice and go from there,” Mark Stoops said.
▪ Vanderbilt redshirt sophomore left tackle Gunnar Hansen has an ankle injury but is considered “probable” for Saturday’s game. A 6-5, 321-pound product of Boca Raton, Florida, Hansen shifted between tackle and guard last season. Right tackle Junior Uzebu played well vs. Kentucky last season, posting an 85.4 pass grade vs. the Cats. However, the 6-6, 330-pound Atlanta product, who began his college career at West Virginia, has missed the past two games and is “questionable” to play vs. UK.
Advantage: Even.
Defensive line
▪ In attempts to help massive sophomore tackle Deone Walker (nine tackles, two QB hurries in 2023) break through the frequent double teams he faces, Kentucky had the 6-6, 340-pound Detroit product rush the passer from a standing position vs. Akron. Junior end Tre’vonn Rybka, a 6-4, 276-pound product of Dickson, Tennessee, had three tackles last week.
▪ Vanderbilt redshirt senior tackle Nate Clifton had a big game for Commodores coach Clark Lea against Kentucky last year as Vandy snapped a 26-game SEC losing streak. The 6-5, 280-pound product of La Vergne, Tennessee, had four tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and shared in a QB sack. This season, Clifton has made 11 stops, 2.5 TFL and two sacks.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Linebackers
▪ Kentucky WLB Trevin Wallace leads the SEC in QB sacks (3.5) and is sixth in the league in tackles (24). Sophomore SLB Keaten Wade, a Spring Hill, Tennessee, product, made two tackles and a sack vs. Akron.
▪ Vanderbilt MLB Ethan Barr had a strong showing vs. UK last season. The 6-3, 245-pound senior from Flower Mound, Texas, had five tackles, two solo, vs. the Wildcats in 2022. In the loss at UNLV, Barr had nine tackles and forced a fumble. WLB Kane Patterson had six tackles and a TFL vs. the Rebels.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Defensive backs
▪ Kentucky sophomore CB Maxwell Hairston played the best game of his college career to date last week vs. Akron. The 6-1, 181-pound product of West Bloomfield, Michigan, had seven tackles and a TFL vs. the Zips. Junior safety Zion Childress recovered a fumble and made three tackles in last week’s win.
▪ Vanderbilt hybrid safety/linebacker CJ Taylor is the Commodores’ most-productive defender. The 6-1, 201-pound junior from McMinnville, Tennessee, has made 30 tackles (third-most in the SEC), three sacks (seventh) and 5.5 tackles for loss (sixth). In Vandy’s win over UK last season, Taylor had a team-high six tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, a sack and was credited with a pass defended. Starting strong safety De’Rickey Wright (20 tackles, two interceptions, a forced fumble and a recovery) and starting free safety Jaylen Mahoney (15 tackles, two pass breakups) are both listed as “questionable” for Saturday due to injuries.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Special teams
▪ Kentucky return man Barion Brown had a 99-yard kickoff return for touchdown in week one and came back with a 36-yard punt return in week two that set up a TD. The Nashville product is second in the SEC in kick return average (38.25 yards). Place-kicker Alex Raynor is 3-of-3 on field-goal tries with a long of 46. Punter Wilson Berry is averaging 47.9 yards and has pinned foes inside the 20-yard line on three of seven kicks.
▪ Vanderbilt place-kicker Jacob Borcila is 4-of-5 on field-goal tries in 2023, but his miss was damaging. In the final minute of a tied game at UNLV last week, Borcila missed from 33 yards. Punter Matthew Hayball has been booming kicks, averaging 53.1 yards on 10 punts. Jayden McGowan is third in the SEC in kickoff returns (32.86 yards a return) and had a 97-yard return for TD vs. Hawaii.
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Kentucky 33, Vanderbilt 24.
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