Scottish Parliament election 2021: Key seats that could prove pivotal for the SNP

Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton took Edinburgh Western seat from the SNP in 2016. This time around it has been heavily targeted by the SNP, which is represented by young activist Sarah Masson - Anadolu Agency
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton took Edinburgh Western seat from the SNP in 2016. This time around it has been heavily targeted by the SNP, which is represented by young activist Sarah Masson - Anadolu Agency

The final Scottish Parliament election result will not be known until Saturday afternoon or evening, with the count being split over two days thanks to Covid restrictions.

The winners in 47 constituencies are expected to be announced on Friday, with a further 26 seats and the regional list MSPs coming on Saturday.

However, a small number of key seats will provide a clue whether Nicola Sturgeon is on course for the majority she intends to use to push for a second independence referendum.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and candidate Roza Salih pose for a selfie with a voter at Annette Street school polling station on May 6, 2021 in Glasgow - Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images Europe
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and candidate Roza Salih pose for a selfie with a voter at Annette Street school polling station on May 6, 2021 in Glasgow - Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images Europe

The SNP fell short of a majority in the 2016 election, winning 63 of 129 seats. Here are the constituencies to look out for on Friday and Saturday that will decide whether the separatists will achieve their target this time.

Key constituencies to watch

Friday

Dumbarton

Jackie Baillie, the deputy Scottish Labour leader, is defending a majority of just 103 votes and needed Tories to vote tactically for her. It is no coincidence Nicola Sturgeon visited this seat on her final day of campaigning.

Ayr

The Tories' John Scott won the seat by only 750 votes in 2016 and it is a top SNP target again this time round.

Eastwood

Eastwood was a three-way marginal, but is more likely to be a straight scrap this time between the Tories and SNP.

Jackson Carlaw, the former Scottish Tory leader, won it last time but has a majority of only 1,611. He will hope that former Labour supporters have voted tactically for him to keep out the SNP.

East Lothian

Iain Gray, the former Scottish Labour leader, held this seat last time round by only 1,127 votes thanks to his strong popular following. However, he has stood down and Martin Whitfield, the former Labour MP for the area, faces a stern challenge to defeat the SNP's Paul McLennan.

Edinburgh Central

Ruth Davidson pulled off one of the shocks of the night in the 2016 election when the then-Scottish Tory leader won this seat, hoisting her party from fourth place to first. But Ms Davidson has stepped down and the SNP is confident it will overturn her 610 majority.

The Nationalists' candidate is big-hitter Angus Robertson, who was the party's Westminster leader before he lost his Moray seat in the 2017 general election to Douglas Ross, the present Scottish Tory leader.

Edinburgh Southern

Another seat where Labour is in a tough fight to hold off an SNP challenge in a three-way marginal. Labour's Daniel Johnson is defending a majority of only 1,123 and will hope enough Tory supporters will have voted tactically for him to stop the SNP coming through the middle. The equivalent Westminster seat is held by Ian Murray, Labour's only Scottish MP, who has built a formidable political operation in the area.

Edinburgh Western

The Liberal Democrats' Alex Cole-Hamilton took this seat from the SNP in 2016, with the constituency being a traditional party stronghold. However, it has been heavily targeted by the SNP, which is represented by young activist Sarah Masson.

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

The Liberal Democrats have poured everything into this seat to try and overturn the SNP's 3,913 majority. Gail Ross has stood down as the SNP MSP for the area, and Childcare Minister Maree Todd faces a nervous wait on Friday to see if she has beaten Lib Dem Molly Nolan.

Rutherglen

Another seat where the SNP is in a fight to hold it, this time from Labour. Nationalist Claire Haughey is defending a 3,743 majority from Labour's James Kelly following anger at the scandal around former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier's Covid law breach.

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

An SNP seat with a majority of 4 per cent, the constituency is a target for the Tories.

SNP stalwart Roseanna Cunningham has represented this patch of Perthshire since the beginning of the Scottish Parliament, but is stepping down in May and leaves it as the party’s most vulnerable seat in Scotland.

The Westminster equivalent has bounced between the SNP and Conservatives at the last three Westminster contests - including two years where the MP was Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh, now an Alba Party candidate on the regional list - although prior to that it was held by Labour.

As Labour and the Lib Dems were 10,000 votes behind the other parties in 2016, it is likely to be a straight contest between experienced Tory campaigner Liz Smith and the SNP's Jim Fairlie, who hopes to continue Ms Cunningham's legacy.

Declaration for this seat is expected to take place on Saturday.

North East Regional list

While not a constituency, this result will draw considerable interest because Mr Salmond's name will be on the ballot paper, atop the Alba Party's list.

If his attempt to return to frontline politics is to be even remotely successful, he will need to start here - which means every other party will be eyeing the arithmetic and hoping not to be edged out.

The seat is expected to be declared on Saturday evening.

When are declarations expected to take place?

Most of Scotland's local constituencies will start counting votes for the First Past The Post votes, with the majority expected to declare their results on Friday afternoon/evening.

The rest will be counted and declared on Saturday afternoon, whilst the regional seats will be announced on Saturday evening.

Saturday

Aberdeenshire West

Tory Alexander Burnett won the seat by only 900 votes last time and this is one of the SNP's top target seats, with Ms Sturgeon again visiting it during the final day of campaigning. She has high hopes for the party's candidate, Fergus Mutch.

Dumfriesshire

Oliver Mundell, the son of former Scottish Secretary David Mundell, took this three-way marginal seat for the Tories from Labour in the 2016 contest. But his majority over the SNP's Joan McAlpine was only 1,230 votes and she has stood again this time. Again, he will hope that Labour supporters have voted tactically for him to stop the SNP.

Galloway and West Dumfries

The Tories's Finlay Carson is defending a majority of only 1,514 from the SNP. He will hope that the prospect of a separate Scotland having a hard border with England will help him hold it.

Perthshire South and Kinross-shire

SNP stalwart Roseanna Cunningham has represented this seat since the beginning of the Scottish Parliament but she has stood down, and her majority of only 1,422 makes it the Tories' top target. If Liz Smith, their candidate, manages to beat the SNP's JIm Fairlie, it will be a major blow to Ms Sturgeon's majority hopes.

You can view the full list of constituencies and the time and dates that they will declare in our Scottish government election article.