Keys to the game and prediction for Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans on Monday night

For Sean McDermott and the rest of the Buffalo Bills, the company line this week has been that the Tennessee Titans are nothing more than the next team on the schedule.

But to the rest of us who pay attention to the Bills and know their recent history with the Titans, that isn’t the case at all. The Titans have been the thorn in the side, the fly in the ointment, the ant at the picnic — choose whatever cliché you like — almost every time they’ve played Buffalo dating back to the horror of the Music City Miracle.

Look at the last two games, both prime-time affairs in Nashville. In 2020, thanks to a COVID outbreak in the Titans locker room, the game was pushed back several days, the Titans hardly practiced at all, yet somehow they crushed a superior Bills team 42-16.

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That tied for the most lopsided loss the Bills have suffered going back to midway through 2018, Josh Allen’s rookie season, which happened to be the only season the Bills have missed the playoffs in the McDermott era.

And then last year, Allen slipped near the goal-line on a fourth-down play which enabled the Titans to hang on to a 34-31 victory, a maddening result.

“They're as tough as anybody,” Allen said. “They've given us problems for the last couple of years, and we all know what happened last week (losing to the Giants). They're going to be a motivated team coming into our stadium Monday night, so we’ve got to be ready for that.”

Since the Houston Oilers moved to Tennessee and became the Titans, the Bills - counting the Music City Miracle - have gone 4-9 against this franchise. Three of the wins came in succession - 2015 under Rex Ryan, 2018 and 2019 under McDermott - but in all three, the Bills scored 14 points or less. In other words, they were slogs that could have gone either way.

“It’s a game of inches," McDermott said, "that’s what this game is and you’ve got to expect a close game every week and that’s what we expect this week. They’re a good football team, the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year.”

But they’re a team the Bills should drum Monday night.

Here are the keys to the game, followed by my prediction:

1. Stopping Derrick Henry has to be the No. 1 priority

Yeah, I know, Captain Obvious, right? Well, it was the same priority in 2020 and 2021, and the Bills couldn’t derail the locomotive. It has become all too familiar, the Titans titanic-sized running back smashing through the Buffalo defense on his way to the end zone, a place he has reached five times combined in the 2020 and 2021 games against the Bills.

The Bills can’t let Henry do this to them again because the Titans are even more reliant on Henry because they no longer have star WR A.J. Brown to balance things. Henry can’t be allowed to get into a groove where he takes over the game, and McDermott will be banking on the offseason overhaul of the defensive line to make sure that doesn’t happen.

Last year, the Titans offensive line - which included starters Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry who now play for the Bills - was able to control the middle of the Bills’ D-line which also allowed them to get out on LBs Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano. Milano played all 53 defensive snaps and had only two tackles.

The Bills should be better-equipped to hold up in the middle as they have moved on from Harrison Phillips, Justin Zimmer and Star Lotulelei and replaced them with DaQuan Jones, Tim Settle, and Jordan Phillips which represents a notable upgrade across the front. However, Ed Oliver is out with an ankle injury, and Settle is doubtful because of a calf, so that's not ideal with Henry coming to town. The Bills have three DTs on the practice squad - C.J. Brewer, Brandin Bryant and Prince Emili. They could probably call up Bryant, and perhaps move Shaq Lawson - who was inactive last week because he's not one of the top four edge rushers - to the inside in a pinch.

More:Three things to know about Tim Settle, Buffalo Bills defensive tackle

2. The Buffalo Bills pass rush protect the young corners?

Going into the season the Bills certainly seemed vulnerable at boundary cornerback with Dane Jackson starting on one side and rookies Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam sharing time on the other side. But in the victory over the Rams, that was hardly an issue because the pass rush was so fierce, registering seven sacks and never allowing Matthew Stafford to connect with anyone except Cooper Kupp, who did most of his work on the inside.

Both Benford and Elam held up fine, and Jackson made an early interception that essentially took points off the board for the Rams after they had started that possession at the Buffalo 36 thanks to a James Cook fumble.

The challenge Monday for the young corners won’t be as difficult, especially since the Titans no longer have Brown - who has killed the Bills in the past - or Julio Jones. They have veteran ex-Bill Robert Woods and unheralded Nick Westbrook-Ikhine who started last week against the Giants. And then they have two rookie WRs in Treylon Burks and Kyle Phillips who were actually both more effective than Woods and Westbrook-Ikhine.

There are two ways the Titans can be productive through the air: Henry gets rolling and QB Ryan Tannehill can utilize play-action, and/or the Tennessee offensive line holds up against the Bills’ pass rush and gives the WRs time to win their routes against the Bills’ young corners. There is another injury to watch here, though, as Jackson has missed practice time with a knee injury. If he can't play, both Elam and Benford would have to start, and Cam Lewis might be the backup.

3. Make sure Titans Jeffery Simmons is blocked

The Bills did a nice job in limiting the damage Aaron Donald inflicted last week, but things won’t be any easier against Simmons. He’s another game-wrecking defensive tackle who had a great game last week against the Giants, and a great game last year against the Bills.

Against the Rams, the Bills game-planned to get the ball out of Allen’s hand quicker than normal to minimize the impact of the Rams pass rush. Tennessee, playing without star edge rusher Harold Landry, still found a way to sack New York’s Daniel Jones five times including two by Simmons, two by Rashad Weaver and one by Bud Dupree, so the Bills may need to go quick again.

Simmons is a menace in the middle because he can win his matchup and get to the quarterback by himself. But when the Titans send Weaver and Dupree off the edges, they can steer the quarterback right into Simmons. The Titans aren’t a big bliz team because they can get heat with four, and this is where Allen will have to be sharp on his reads because there will be plenty of traffic in the secondary with six or seven in coverage.

4. Buffalo Bills must mix in some running to balance the offense

Last week the Giants rushed for 238 yards which was stunning because in 2021, the Titans had the No. 1 run defense in the NFL with a yield of 83.5 yards per game. When the Bills played them, they managed 82 yards on 23 attempts, and 26 of the yards came from Allen.

Tennessee has a talented group in the secondary with CBs Kristian Fulton (who may not play), Roger McCreary and Caleb Farley, plus safeties Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker, and like the Bills, as Allen pointed out, they do a great job disguising their coverages. The Bills counter with a tremendous group of receivers, but Allen figures to have tight windows much of the night and contested catches will probably need to be made.

The Bills may want to try to establish a presence on the ground with Devin Singletary, Zack Moss and perhaps James Cook as a way to not only get into decent down and distance, but perhaps get the Titans peeking into the backfield which could open things up down the field. Maybe it won’t work because the Titans will certainly be spitting nails after the way they were gouged last week, and if it doesn’t, then the Bills can always unleash Allen which is never a bad idea.

Sal’s prediction: Buffalo Bills 30, Tennessee Titans 17

The Bills can say it’s just the next game, but they want to beat this team, probably as much as they want to beat the Chiefs a month from now, or how much they wanted to beat the Patriots all those years.

The Titans just never worry me, and I’m not sure why given how hard it has been for Buffalo to beat them. The Titans have frustrated the Bills more than most opponents because they just present a difficult and tricky matchup, but things should be a little different now that they get them at Highmark Stadium after two straight road prime-time games in Nashville.

Emotions and motivation will be running high and the crowd will surely be bonkers, but as long as the Bills don’t get caught up in all the Monday night opening night hoopla, I think they can roll in this game.

Bills and Titans team rankings

Bills TitansTotal offense: 413.0 yards (7th); 359.0 (15th)Rush offense: 121.0 yards (14th); 93.0 (19th)Pass offense: 292.0 yards (7th); 266.0 (10th)Points scored: 31.0 (4th); 20.0 (T17th)Total defense: 243.0 yards (2nd); 394.0 (24th)Rush defense: 52.0 yards (1st); 238.0 (32nd)Pass defense: 191.0 yards (8th); 156.0 (4th)Points allowed: 10.0 (T5th); 21.0 (T17th)

Bills and Titans individual leaders

Rushing

Bills: Josh Allen 10 carries, 56 yards; Devin Singletary 8-48; Zack Moss 6-15; James 1-2.

Titans: Derrick Henry 21-82; Dontrell Hilliard 2-8; Ryan Tannehill 2-7.

Passing

Bills: Josh Allen 26 of 31, 297 yards, 3 TDs, 2 interceptions.

Titans: Ryan Tannehill 20 of 33, 266 yards, 2 TDs, 0 interceptions.

Receiving

Bills: Stefon Diggs 8 catches, 122 yards; Gabe Davis 4-88; Zack Moss 6-21; Jamison Crowder 3-28; Devin Singletary 2-14; Isaiah McKenzie 2-19; Dawson Knox 1-5.

Titans: Kyle Phillips 6-66; Dontrell Hilliard 3-61; Treylon Burks 3-55; Geoff Swaim 3-19; Cody Hollister 1-22; Nick Westbook-Ihine 1-13; Robert Woods 1-13.

2022 Buffalo Bills schedule

Thur. 9/8 at Rams, W 31-10

Mon. 9/19 vs. Titans, 7:15 p.m.

Sun. 9/25 at Dolphins, 1 p.m.

Sun. 10/2 at Ravens, 1 p.m.

Sun. 10/9 vs. Steelers, 1 p.m.

Sun. 10/16 at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.

Sun. 10/23 Bye week

Sun. 10/30 vs. Packers, 8:20 p.m.

Sun. 11/6 at Jets, 1 p.m.

Sun. 11/13 vs. Vikings, 1 p.m.

Sun. 11/20 vs. Browns, 1 p.m.

Thur. 11/24 at Lions, 12:30 p.m.

Thur. 12/1 vs. Patriots, 8:15 p.m.

Sun. 12/11 at Jets, 1 p.m.

Sun. 12/18, vs. Dolphins, TBD

Sat. 12/24 at Bears, 1 p.m.

Mon. 1/2 at Bengals, 8:30 p.m.

Sun. 1/8 vs. Patriots, TBD

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.To subscribe to Sal's new twice-a-week newsletter, Bills Blast, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Titans predictions: keys to the game on Monday Night Football