Here are the keys to the game and Sal’s prediction for Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts

Here’s a sobering thought to ponder: The Buffalo Bills need to defeat the Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon to avoid falling into second place in the AFC East behind, you guessed it, the Evil Empire.

That’s right, the New England Patriots, who we were all so gloriously rid of in 2020 in their first year post-Tom Brady, are already back to being, if not the six-time Super Bowl champion Patriots, certainly a force to be reckoned with.

And thus, a division that seemed like it would be a cruise for the Bills even as recently as a month ago is most likely going to be anything but that.

The Patriots notched their fifth straight win on Thursday to improve to 7-4 and now have a mini bye to rest up and get ready for a big test against the AFC’s top team, the Titans, on Nov. 28.

So the 6-3 Bills have to hold serve against the improving and surging Colts who, after a 1-4 start are now 5-5 and would be riding a seven-game win streak if not for two overtime losses to a pair of division leaders, the Ravens and Titans.

Here’s my preview of the game:

1. The Buffalo Bills offensive line needs to overcome loss of Spencer Brown

It’s hard to believe that losing a rookie third-round offensive tackle from Northern Iowa who didn’t even play college football in 2020 could create so much trouble, but that’s the case for the Bills offense now that Spencer Brown is out because he tested positive for COVID-19.

Brown missed two games with a back injury and was sorely missed against the Dolphins and Jaguars, then returned last week and, not surprisingly, the offensive line played well and Brown had an excellent performance. But with Brown out, chaos reigns supreme again, and none of the options to overcome his absence are promising.

The likely scenario is Daryl Williams moving back outside and Cody Ford returning to start at RG. Another possibility is leaving Williams at RG where he’s clearly better suited and starting newly re-signed veteran Bobby Hart at RT. Hart was with the Bills in camp, signed with the Titans after he was cut, and then was cut by the Titans earlier this week. Or, perhaps Jamil Douglas can start at RG. Nothing about any of that is good for the Bills. Then you factor in further trouble with Jon Feliciano which means Ike Boettger will again start at LG.

The Colts have not been a great pass rushing team but given the changes that are happening up front for the Bills, players like DT DeForest Buckner (team leading six sacks and 37 pressures) and DEs Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingho could create havoc the way Jacksonville’s Josh Allen and Dawaune Smoot did.

2. If Josh Allen gets time, passing game should thrive

Now, if the line can protect well enough to allow routes to develop downfield, Allen can exploit an Indy back seven that is allowing a completion percentage of 66.9, has yielded a league-high 23 TD passes, and has seen opposing QBs compile a combined passer rating of 99.9.

The Colts are playing without both their starting safeties who are injured, and CBs Kenny Moore II and Xavier Rhodes have not had great seasons in coverage. Moore in particular, as he has allowed 53 completions on 73 targets for 525 yards. By comparison, Buffalo’s Levi Wallace has given up 28 catches on 49 targets for 265 yards while playing only 51 fewer coverage snaps.

Allen relied heavily on Stefon Diggs last week in New York and Diggs had his best game of the year. Another day like that is possible against this Colts secondary because Diggs should be able to consistently win his matchups. It will be interesting to see how much Cole Beasley can contribute, but if his ribs continue to limit his snap count, Gabriel Davis, who also came up big against the Jets, might get more opportunities with Emmanuel Sanders moving into the slot. Sanders has been in the slot for 91 of his 516 snaps this season.

3. Colt’s offense isn’t all RB Jonathan Taylor

Without a doubt, the No. 1 priority for the Bills defense is containing Taylor who leads the NFL in both rushing yards (937) and yards from scrimmage (1,240). Everything flows through Taylor and given the talent the Colts have on their offensive line, Taylor is going to get his yards. The key for the Bills is to prevent Taylor from doing what Derrick Henry did to them in Tennessee when he rushed for 143 yards and three TDs, and they’ll be hampered in that pursuit not having Star Lotulelei and possibly Tremaine Edmunds who is listed as questionable.

But even if they can do that, the job won’t be done because the Colts are starting to get production out of QB Carson Wentz who is quietly having a pretty good season. Some thought he was washed up after this downturn with the Eagles which prompted them to trade the No. 2 overall draft pick in 2016. However, Wentz has 17 TD passes and only three picks and he’s functioning well within Frank Reich’s scheme. One thing to watch for is his connection with WR Michael Pittman which has started to hum as Pittman has only one fewer catch (55) and 21 fewer yards (729) than Diggs.

Wentz, though, hasn’t seen a defense as prolific as Buffalo’s, one that leads the league in fewest points, yards allowed, an TD passes (6), has made a league-best 15 interceptions, and is allowing a league-low 29.6% conversion rate on third down.

4. Other key points to consider in Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup

► When it comes to playoff rematches, the Bills have done quite well throughout their history. In games where Buffalo faced a team it played the previous year in the postseason, it is 19-10-2 with five straight wins including one this season against the Chiefs.

► Since the start of 2020, Allen has accounted for 79.4% of the Bills total offense, second-most in the league behind Atlanta’s Matt Ryan (79.5%). Tom Brady is third at 77.0%. This season, Allen is actually above that figure at 81%, third in the NFL behind Derek Carr of the Raiders and Lamar Jackson of the Ravens.

► The Bills lead the NFL by a wide margin in point differential at plus-145. The Cardinals are second at plus-98.

► The Bills have topped 40 points three times this year and if they do that again, they would set a single-season team record.

► Tyler Bass has made 16 consecutive field goal attempts, two shy of the team record of 18 set by Rian Lindell in 2007.

► The Bills have scored on 49.5% of their possessions this season which leads the league. The Colts rank eighth at 43.1%.

► These are the top two teams in the NFL in terms of turnover differential as the Bills are at plus-14 and the Colts plus-11. In terms of points scored off turnovers, the Colts are No. 1 at 77 points and the Bills are No. 2 at 74.

Sal’s prediction: Buffalo Bills 27, Indianapolis Colts 20

This is the Bills 10th game of the season, and in every one of them except Kansas City, I have felt they were the better team in the matchup and that’s the case again with the Colts. Frank Reich has his team playing well in the last month, but like the Bills, Indy’s victories have all come against weak and unimpressive teams so it’s tough to figure out who the Colts really are.

That said, they certainly gave the Titans two excellent games and they pushed the Ravens to overtime, so it’s not out of the question that they can come into Buffalo and pull the upset. They almost did it in the wild-card game last January. The game will probably be tight because the Colts are so good in the trenches, but the Bills should prevail on the strength of their defense combined with Allen getting enough done in the passing game against a compromised Indy secondary.

How to watch, listen to Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts game

When: 1 p.m. Sunday

Where: Highmark Stadium

TV: CBS (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green Melanie Collins)

Satellite radio: Sirius 85, XM 228

Radio: 96.5 FM/950 AM

Series: Bills lead 38-32-1 counting playoffs

Tipico betting line: Bills -7.5

Talking points

► Colts coach Frank Reich on losing to the Bills last year: “I’m not going to lie, it was painful to watch that game on tape again this week. It was painful but yet it was also encouraging. We went on the road against one of the hottest teams in the NFL in one of the hardest stadiums to play, at a very difficult time of year and had a really good chance to win the game. So there’s a lot to be proud of in that effort. We know there’s no consolation prize. But at the same time I feel like it was a great effort by our team.”

► Colts C Ryan Kelly on the Colts recent surge: “We dug a deep hole in the beginning. We went the long way around to get to .500, but to be 5-5 is huge when you were sitting at 1-4 at one point. Those have been some growing pains that this team had to go through. I think that we continue to see when the offense is doing real well, carry the defense, and vice versa. … We’ve just got to put it all together for four quarters.”

NFL rankings

Bills Colts

Total offense: 401.1 yards (5th); 363.4 (12th)

Rush offense: 121.9 yards (10th); 136.3 (6th)

Pass offense: 279.2 (6th); 227.1 (22nd)

Points scored: 31.1 (2nd); 26.8 (8th)

Total defense: 274.1 yards (1st); 363.6 (19th)

Rush defense: 83.9 yards (3rd); 113.7 (17th)

Pass defense: 190.2 yards (2nd); 249.9 (20th)

Points allowed: 15.0 (1st); 23.0 (13th)

Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts individual leaders

Rushing

Bills: Devin Singletary 80 carries, 398 yards; Josh Allen 59-322; Zack Moss 72-260; Matt Breida 7-32; Emmanuel Sanders 2-31; Mitchell Trubisky 10-27; Isaiah McKenzie 5-27.

Colts: Jonathan Taylor 161-937; Nyheim Hines 43-203; Carson Wentz 33-120; Marlon Mack 28-101.

Passing

Bills: Josh Allen 230 of 347, 2,602 yards, 19 TDs, 6 interceptions.

Colts: Carson Wentz 212 of 334, 2,378 yards, 17 TDs, 3 interceptions.

Receiving

Bills: Stefon Diggs 56 catches, 750 yards; Cole Beasley 53-461; Emmanuel Sanders 30-505; Dawson Knox 22-303; Devin Singletary 22-88; Zack Moss 18-166; Gabriel Davis 13-238; Tommy Sweeney 9-44.

Colts: Michael Pittman 55-729; Zach Pascal 32-328; Jonathan Taylor 29-303; Nyheim Hines 26-204; Jack Doyle 17-167; Mo Alie-Cox 15-211; Parris Campbell 10-162; Ashton Dulin 10-86; T.Y. Hilton 7-101.

2021 Buffalo Bills schedule

9/12 vs. Steelers, L 16-23

9/19 at Dolphins, W 35-0

9/26 vs. Washington, W 43-21

10/3 vs. Texans, W 40-0

10/10 at Chiefs, W 38-20

10/18 at Titans, L 31-34

10/24 Bye week

10/31 vs. Dolphins, W 26-11

11/7 at Jaguars, L 6-9

11/14 at Jets, W 45-17

11/21 vs. Colts, 1 p.m

11/25 at Saints, 8:20 p.m.

12/6 vs. Patriots, 8:15 p.m.

12/12 at Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m.

12/19 vs. Panthers, TBD

12/26 at Patriots, 1 p.m.

1/2 vs. Falcons, 1 p.m.

1/9 vs. Jets, 1 p.m.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts: Predictions ans keys to the game