Keys to victory, betting line and prediction for Boise State’s road game at Utah State

Boise State’s Mountain West opener at Utah State on Saturday (10 a.m., CBS) will be a homecoming of sorts for defensive line coach Frank Maile and special teams coordinator/edge coach Stacy Collins.

Maile and Collins were on former Utah State head coach Gary Andersen’s staff before he got fired midway through last season.

Maile even served as the Aggies’ interim head coach for the final three games of the season. He spent 10 years on Utah State’s coaching staff — beginning as a graduate assistant in 2009. He left briefly to coach defensive line at Vanderbilt but returned in 2016 as defensive line coach and co-defensive coordinator.

He recruited many of the Aggies’ current players and said he still knows about 80% of the roster, but he’s focused on taking care of business.

“(Utah State) is always going to have a place in my heart, but to me, it’s just another business trip,” Maile said. “It’s just another opponent that’s standing in the way of what this family is trying to accomplish, and that’s the Mountain West championship.”

Collins spent the past five seasons at Utah State, serving mainly as the special teams coordinator, but he was promoted to co-defensive coordinator last year. He wishes nothing but the best for his former players, but he’s happy where he is.

“I certainly appreciate my time there, and I have a lot of love for those guys, but this is the business side of it,” Collins said. “I’ll tell you what, I’m happy to be at Boise State and all we’re concerned about is having a good practice and meetings, which we did today, and moving on and playing our best football in Logan, Utah.”

Maile and Collins undoubtedly built strong relationships with the players at Utah State, but there’s no time for sentimentality on Saturday. Given the strength of the Broncos’ remaining schedule, they can’t afford a letdown in Maverik Stadium if they’re going to make it to their fifth straight Mountain West championship game.

Notes

Boise State pass rusher Aisa Kelemete’s college career may be over. The former star at Highland High in Pocatello announced Wednesday on Instagram that after yet another injury, he’s stepping away from football.

“I got the opportunity to live out a childhood dream, build relationships that will last a lifetime and cherish memories that I will forever be grateful for,” Kelemete wrote. “Thank you Boise State for making all of this possible. Today, I had my fifth surgery and will be stepping away from football. Thank you for all the prayers and support through all of this. I’m looking forward to seeing what the man above has planned for me next in life.”

There has been no official announcement from Boise State about Kelemete’s possible retirement or his most recent injury, which appears to have been suffered during the Broncos’ loss to Oklahoma State. The redshirt senior missed all of the 2018 season with injuries and was limited to three games in 2019. He didn’t appear in any games last fall.

Former Boise State quarterback Jaylon Henderson announced Wednesday on Twitter that he has signed with the Las Vegas Knight Hawks — the latest franchise to join the Indoor Football League. Henderson began his college career at University of Texas San Antonio and spent a year at Trinity Valley Community College before transferring to Boise State in 2018. He started the final four games of the 2019 season and was named the offensive MVP of the Mountain West championship game.

Keys to victory

Control the line of scrimmage: This may be redundant at this point, but running the ball on offense and stopping the run on defense is as important in this game as it has been all season. And until the Broncos can show they can do both consistently, no win is a sure thing.

Boise State gave up 246 yards on the ground last week against Oklahoma State and 255 in the season opener at UCF. The Broncos held UTEP’s rushing attack in check for the most part, but even the Miners were gashing them on the ground early in that game.

The Broncos face another opponent that runs the ball effectively Saturday at Utah State. The Aggies average 206.3 rushing yards a game. Their leading rusher, Calvin Tyler Jr., averages 6.1 yards a carry, and their quarterbacks aren’t shy about running the ball, especially backup Andrew Peasley, who has appeared in all three games this season and it second on the team with 131 yards on 10 carries.

Shut down Thompkins: Boise State will face one of the nation’s top receivers on Saturday. Senior Deven Thompkins leads the country with 454 receiving yards and his 25 catches are tied for No. 5 nationally. He has caught at least eight passes and a touchdown pass in each of the Aggies’ first three games, and he posted more than 100 receiving yards in the past two. Thompkins finished with eight catches for 172 yards against North Dakota and nine grabs for 188 yards against Air Force.

Thompkins (5-foot-8, 155 pounds) is never going to be the biggest receiver on the field, but he’s fast and runs crisp routes, and the Aggies’ coaches move him around to create matchup problems. Boise State is going to have to find a way to take him away and force the quarterbacks to go to their second or third options.

Get in the quarterback’s face: Boise State’s defense has six sacks in three games. Four have come from interior linemen Scott Matlock and Shane Irwin, and two were by edge Isaiah Bagnah. Defensive line coach Frank Maile said Monday that the Broncos’ pass rush has been just OK so far this season, and they’ve just missed on four to six more sacks.

Boise State needs that pass rush to heat up on Saturday. Utah State’s offense is clicking on all cylinders right now. The Aggies lead the Mountain West with 563.3 yards a game, and they’ve already beaten a Power Five team this year. They’re a confident bunch, and the best way to shake that confidence is to put pressure on the quarterback and force him into a mistake.

Matlock has done a great job producing pressure up the middle, and Irwin is described by his coaches and teammates as a relentless pass rusher. He led the team with 6.5 sacks last year. The Broncos need more out of the edge position, though. Bagnah recorded both of his sacks in the season opener, and there hasn’t been a sack from an edge the past two weeks.

That’s a famous position at Boise State, which produced the likes of Curtis Weaver and Jabril Frazier back when it was called STUD. Whether it’s Bagnah, Demitri Washington or former walk-on Dylan Herberg — who earned a scholarship on Wednesday — the Broncos need their edge rushers to create a little chaos in the backfield on Saturday.

Key matchups

Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier vs. Utah State LB Justin Rice: If there’s one player on Utah State’s defense that Boise State needs to be aware of on every play, it’s linebacker Justin Rice. He was an all-conference performer at Fresno State and Arkansas State before following head coach Blake Anderson to Utah State this year.

The sixth-year senior is tied for No. 11 in the country with 30 tackles, and Rice has made plays when his team needed it this season. He ended a scoring drive with an interception in the end zone last week in Utah State’s 49-45 win over Air Force and ended the Falcons’ final drive with a fumble.

Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier has a lot of responsibilities when it comes to alignment and setting pre-snap protections in new offensive coordinator Tim Plough’s scheme. Job No. 1 for Bachmeier on Saturday is to make sure his offensive linemen know where Rice is before every snap.

Boise State S JL Skinner vs. Utah State WR Justin McGriff: Thompkins has been the Aggies’ go-to receiver so far this season, but he isn’t likely to be the guy they look for in the red zone. Those passes are more likely to go to 6-6, 215-pound wide receiver Justin McGriff. The junior has 12 catches for 130 yards and one touchdown so far this season. He has the frame to out-muscle defenders on jump balls, and Boise State is going to have to find a way to match that size.

The Broncos have height in the secondary. Cornerbacks Markel Reed and Tyric LeBeauf are both taller than 6 feet, and safety Tyreque Jones checks in at 6-2. But Boise State’s best bet to negate McGriff’s size is to put 6-4, 218-pound safety JL Skinner on him. Skinner is tied for No. 9 in the country with 32 tackles, and his hit on Oklahoma State wide receiver Brennan Presley was seen (and felt) from coast to coast. Skinner has proven he has the physicality to be a difference maker. Now he has to show he has the coverage skills to be one of the best safeties in the Mountain West — if not the country.

Ask a Utah State writer: Battled-tested Aggies await Boise State in Mountain West opener

Predictions

Boise State is 20-5 all-time against Utah State, and the Broncos have won their last five meetings. They’ve won 21 straight conference openers, and the Broncos are 9-3 when playing in Logan, Utah, including wins in their last two trips to Maverik Stadium.

The Broncos are 9-point favorites, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 70 points. Boise State opened the week as a 10.5-point favorite.

Boise State is 15-5 in its last 20 regular-season games as a favorite on the road, and the Broncos are 10-9-1 against the spread. Utah State is 5-15 in its last 20 regular-season games as an underdog at home and 15-5 ATS.

My pick (2-1 straight up, 2-1 ATS): Boise State is facing a dangerous opponent this week. Utah State’s offense is clicking, the Aggies already have a win over a Power Five program and they found a way to win their conference opener at Air Force last week. The Aggies are a confident bunch, and head coach Blake Anderson obviously brought the high-powered offense that made him successful at Arkansas State to Logan.

Boise State is a dangerous team, too. The Broncos have shown flashes of greatness, but they haven’t put together a complete game yet. They also haven’t had the services of a fully healthy George Holani. The running back wasn’t on a snap count last week, according to Boise State coach Andy Avalos, but he certainly didn’t have the burst he’s shown in the past. I have a feeling this is going to be Holani’s breakout game and Boise State pulls away in the second half. Final score: Boise State 42, Utah State 28

Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (2-1 straight up, 0-3 ATS): I felt watching the game last week that Boise (State) was robbed. That inadvertent whistle should not have taken place. But their coaching staff, they got between the 15 and 20-yard line before kicking the field goal and the possession before they threw the interception — they were just too cautious. You’ve got to play to win. When you play cautious, you’re going to get beat. I felt like that’s why they didn’t get the win. Utah State has been surprising. They’re 3-0 overall and against the spread. This is the first real defense that the Aggies will face, in Boise State, although (the Broncos) did not look good against the run last week. The Aggies just don’t have a running back like Oklahoma State did with Jaylen Warren. Boise State plays it’s best ball as a road favorite. They’re 20-6 as a road favorite since 2015. Give me Boise by two touchdowns. Final score: Boise State 37, Utah State 23

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BOISE STATE AT UTAH STATE

When: 10 a.m. Saturday

Where: Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah

TV: CBS (Rich Waltz, Aaron Taylor, Sherree Burris). That’s channel 2 on Sparklight and DirecTV and channel 2 or 5251 on Dish Network.

Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)

Records: Boise State 1-2; Utah State 3-0

Series: Boise State is 20-5 all-time against Utah State. The Broncos have won the last five in a row, including a 42-13 victory last fall in the season opener.

Vegas line: Boise State by 9

Weather: 57 degrees at kickoff, 0% chance of rain, 3 mph winds