Kindergarteners disappearing as Scottsdale Unified enrollment dips

Apr. 17—In business, it's supply and demand.

In schools, it's enrollment and funding.

In education, those two are linked by the state, which comes up with a formula to help fund schools based on how many students are at desks.

Like many other districts across the Valley, Scottsdale Unified School District is monitoring an alarming trend — fewer students, more open desks.

At a March 26 special meeting that was not listed on the board's annual calendar, Shannon Crosier, SUSD's chief financial officer, gave a presentation on "the elements that are included in establishing the budget recommendations for Fiscal Year 2024-25."

The third slide of her PowerPoint gave an overview explaining "How is SUSD funded?"

A key number for districts, she explained, is average daily membership, or ADM, which counts the number of enrolled students based on the first 100 days of school.

Weights are applied to the ADM, including students with disabilities and special needs.

A base level of funding per student is determined by state Legislature, which must factor in annual inflation of up to 2%.

A Teacher Experience Index can boost budgets "if a districts' teacher experience is higher than the state average."

Taking a breath, Crosier flipped to the next slide, which shared some bad news — though far from unexpected.

The ADM, which hit 22,607 in 2017, had dipped below 20,000. The 19,756 count this year is the lowest in seven years, and only the second sub-20,000 100-day count.

Even the 2021 pandemic year count was higher than this year — which is also 356 less than last year.

Except for a huge drop of nearly 1,700 in 2021, the ADM has been slowly but steadily trickling down by an average of 400 per year.

Spread across 12 grades, that might hardly be noticeable, year to year, but makes statisticians cringe.

The next slide was even more worrisome, as Crosier walked the board through a K-12 breakdown.

Total enrollment has dropped every year since 2012, from a high of 25,598 in 2012 to this year's 20,512.

This — not ADM — is a true reflection of how many students are in Scottsdale classrooms.

"Average Daily Membership or ADM is a calculation based on the number of enrolled students within the first 100 days of school," Crosier explained. "Enrollment is just the number of students enrolled on a particular day."

The key factor here is the number of kindergarten students, who attend a half day of school. Each kindergartener counts as 0.5 ADM but an enrollment number of 1.

Speaking of kindergarteners ... SUSD enrollment of its youngest class has dropped every year for the last dozen, down from 1,749 in 2012 to 1,314 this year.

They're not just cute — kindergarteners are existentially crucial for districts.

Crosier explained the difference between the seniors that graduated and the kindergarteners that started was 524, a dozen years ago.

"You can see every year that difference is higher," she said, underlining the root cause of the district's declining enrollment.

"Really, the issue we're running into is with budget and the ADM has to do with getting those kids enrolled in kindergarten," Crosier summarized.

Board President Libby Hart-Wells bemoaned how the falling enrollment numbers are "driven by the aging community that we're living in."

Crosier affirmed that, adding, "if you're a young family, it's really expensive to live here."

In both cases, it's not just Scottsdale.

Inflation is ravaging communities around the U.S. and national and state data show declines in the birth rate.

But few cities have populations like Scottsdale's, where, according to the U.S. Census, a quarter of the city's estimated 243,000 people are over 65 — and less than 18% are under 18.

Crosier's conclusion:

"We project that enrollment will continue to decline as more 12th graders graduate out than kindergartners entering in."