Kings playoff scenarios: Why likely first-round opponents are Warriors, Clippers, Lakers

The Western Conference playoff race is still in a state of flux with a number of spots still to be decided, but the math is getting simpler by the day.

The Kings have secured no less than the No. 3 seed and homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs with an outside chance of overtaking the Memphis Grizzlies for the No. 2 seed. For that to happen, the Kings would have to win their last two games against the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets while the Grizzlies would have to lose their last two games against the Milwaukee Bucks and Oklahoma City Thunder.

That scenario seems unlikely given the circumstances. The Grizzlies know one more win will assure them of the No. 2 seed, so they aren’t planning to rest anyone against the Bucks on Friday. Milwaukee, on the other hand, has already locked up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks have ruled Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton out against the Grizzlies. The likely result there is a win for the Grizzlies, which would make the Kings the No. 3 seed.

The Grizzlies-Bucks game will start at 5 p.m., two hours before the Kings tip off against the Warriors at Golden 1 Center. The Kings could choose to play their best players if the Grizzlies fall behind early, but they are listing De’Aaron Fox (ankle), Domantas Sabonis (ankle), Kevin Huerter (knee), Keegan Murray (foot), Malik Monk (leg), Davion Mitchell (knee) and Trey Lyles (shoulder) as questionable against the Warriors.

If the Kings are the No. 3 seed, they will play the No. 6 seed in the first round of the playoffs. At the moment, that’s the Warriors, but it could be the Los Angeles Clippers or Los Angeles Lakers, depending on outcomes over the last three days of the season.

The Clippers hold tiebreaker advantages over both the Warriors and Lakers. If all three go 2-0 in their last two games, the Clippers will be No. 5, the Warriors will be No. 6 and the Lakers will be No. 7.

To some extent, the Clippers can determine how this all plays out. They will play Saturday and Sunday against the tanking Portland Trail Blazers and the No. 4 Phoenix Suns, who will likely rest Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. If the Clippers go 2-0, they will face the Suns as the No. 5 seed in the playoffs. If they go 1-1, they will likely fall to sixth and a first-round matchup with the Kings.

Under that scenario, the Warriors would jump to No. 5 if they win their last two games against the Kings and Blazers. But if Golden State loses one of those games, the Lakers — who hold the tiebreaker over Warriors — could jump to No. 6, pushing the Warriors to No. 7.

Those are some of the possibilities, but here’s what we already know as the Kings prepare to make their first playoff appearance since 2006.

Current seed: No. 3

First-round matchup: Golden State Warriors

If the playoffs started today, the Kings would play the No. 6 seed, the Warriors, in the first round. The Kings and Warriors have never met in the playoffs. In fact, they’ve never made the playoffs at the same time. Golden State is 2-1 against Sacramento this season with the final game in the regular-season series set for Friday night. The Clippers, Lakers, New Orleans Pelicans and Minnesota Timberwolves also have a shot at the sixth seed.

Homecourt advantage: Yes.

The Kings have clinched homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, which begin April 15. They will play Game 1 of their first-round series at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. The seven-game series will have a 2-2-1-1-1 format with the first two games being played in Sacramento, the next two games being played on the road and alternating sites for the last three games, if necessary.

Tickets: Are they available?

Tickets for Sacramento’s first-round playoff series will go on sale to the general public at noon Monday. Season ticket holders received priority access to playoff tickets. Fans who sign up at Kings.com/Playoffs before 9 p.m. Friday can access an exclusive presale opportunity. StubHub, a ticket exchange and resale company, has tickets listed for sale with prices ranging from $370 for the upper level to $5,000 for premium seats in the lower level.